Companies Ranked by Business Predictability

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What is Predictability Rank?

GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy "buy good companies at fair prices" for the years 1998-2008. We focused on the companies that Warren Buffett likes, which are the companies that have predictable and proven earnings. For details, go to: GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank.

From this study we have developed the concept of Predictability Rank of businesses. We have found strong correlations between the Predictability of Businesses and the long term return of stocks, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4 -Star	3.5-Star	3 -Star	2.5-Star	2 -Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
Average Annualized Gain (Jan. 1998- Aug. 2008)	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%
% that are in loss with 10-year holding period	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%

We can clearly see that companies with higher Predictability Rank had much better stock performances. The possibility of losing money with long term holding period is also greatly reduced.

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Predictability	10-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	12-M EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	Market Cap ($mil)	P/E	PE/5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate	Yield
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	18.2	6.9	-28.4	621.517	10.57	1.53	5.41
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12.2	9.5	3.6	231349.953	14.29	1.50	1.69
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12.5	10.8	5	3558.977	31.65	2.93	1.41
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.1	14.9	24.9	7165.899	19.46	1.31	0.96
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.6	10.1	14.4	49519.426	25.45	2.52	1.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	15.7	13.8	7.8	17196.174	24.69	1.79	0.85
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.5	11.9	21.2	1696.544	21.74	1.83	1.63
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	15.1	24	24.4	1587.591	22.22	0.93	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.6	11.6	9.2	12530.524	13.23	1.14	3.65
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	31.2	29.1	41.8	14072.367	30.96	1.06	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19.8	8.2	9.9	4507.848	27.25	3.32	0.40
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	8.9	7.9	23.5	243.865	17.99	2.28	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	17	14.3	16	16780.588	40.49	2.83	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.6	8.7	-0.1	6964.425	16.05	1.84	3.80
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	28.9	28.2	16.9	393.146	21.69	0.77	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	17.4	12.6	29.3	4089.425	15.58	1.24	0.60
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19	29.3	14.2	7981.006	28.65	0.98	0.77
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	8	7.4	6	797.269	18.18	2.46	1.31
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	9.3	8.8	4.9	188572.000	22.12	2.51	2.47
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	30.1	19.3	9.6	819.539	35.09	1.82	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13.2	8.1	4.8	9348.527	16.89	2.09	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12.1	21.5	23.9	26034.059	8.73	0.41	2.49
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	15.3	11	-2	1705.531	17.76	1.61	2.32
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	6.4	2.7	20.1	4981.698	5.47	2.03	22.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	18.7	17	30.5	5335.648	20.33	1.20	0.18
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	0	30	339.4	3463.835	12.95	0.43	2.17
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	0	30	339.4	3550.635	13.28	0.44	4.10
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	6.7	14.1	16.9	20387.807	18.12	1.29	1.72
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.3	10.8	14.2	6743.230	23.87	2.21	0.00
Currently 5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 5-Star stocks: 12.1% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 3%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	6.6	6.8	17.6	6708.513	25.32	3.72	1.63