Companies Ranked by Business Predictability

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What is Predictability Rank?

GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy "buy good companies at fair prices" for the years 1998-2008. We focused on the companies that Warren Buffett likes, which are the companies that have predictable and proven earnings. For details, go to: GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank.

From this study we have developed the concept of Predictability Rank of businesses. We have found strong correlations between the Predictability of Businesses and the long term return of stocks, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4 -Star	3.5-Star	3 -Star	2.5-Star	2 -Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
Average Annualized Gain (Jan. 1998- Aug. 2008)	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%
% that are in loss with 10-year holding period	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%

We can clearly see that companies with higher Predictability Rank had much better stock performances. The possibility of losing money with long term holding period is also greatly reduced.

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Predictability	10-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	12-M EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	Market Cap ($mil)	P/E	PE/5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate	Yield
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	26.3	24.2	26.8	49190.898	35.50	1.47	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13.2	12.6	51.1	268.000	42.80	3.40	0.40
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	15.1	16.1	14.4	73174.500	18.60	1.16	1.60
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.7	8	-19.4	2378.300	7.60	0.95	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	16.3	12.6	11.4	4644.800	26.30	2.09	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19.5	38.9	22.5	7330.800	16.10	0.41	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19.5	38.9	22.5	6858.100	15.10	0.39	1.90
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	15.8	16	-14.8	10595.000	19.50	1.22	1.20
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19.2	17.9	21.4	1593.100	19.50	1.09	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	82.7	68.9	7	417021.000	10.40	0.15	2.50
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	11.1	6.4	-13.7	4874.100	22.00	3.44	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	27.6	49.8	3.3	1186.100	31.50	0.63	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	8.5	10.3	-18.2	2054.400	49.40	4.80	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	44.7	25.9	14.8	731.500	10.70	0.41	1.10
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	28.8	36.3	17.9	2502.300	11.80	0.33	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12.1	36.2	29.7	1797.600	13.80	0.38	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	16	23.3	-4.8	80628.398	27.00	1.16	0.40
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	9.5	2.5	-13.4	100.200	1.60	0.64	0.00
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	19.2	16	33.8	2761.900	14.50	0.91	0.30
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	8.5	3.3	-0.5	2170.800	20.60	6.24	2.60
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.1	9.8	-3.1	322.500	19.10	1.95	1.40
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	6.5	5.5	17.3	10880.300	31.80	5.78	0.70
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	7.9	9	70.1	17905.801	12.40	1.38	1.60
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	22.4	14.3	30.2	109931.000	17.70	1.24	1.60
Currently 4.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4.5-Star stocks: 10.6% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 10%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	22.4	14.3	30.2	105351.000	17.00	1.19	1.70
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13.3	14.3	35.1	2570.400	10.70	0.75	1.50
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.2	19.5	57	7140.700	16.70	0.86	0.80
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	23.6	7.5	0	4229.000	14.50	1.93	0.00
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	4.6	7.8	-3.8	10124.900	29.40	3.77	0.20
Currently 4/5 Business Predictability Rank: 4-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 4-Star stocks: 9.8% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 8%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	9.7	8.8	-2.7	57724.801	25.40	2.89	2.10