John Hussman

Hussman Economtrics Advisors

Last Update: 2013-05-14

Number of Stocks: 228
Number of New Stocks: 54

Total Value: $2,723 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 30%

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John Hussman's Profile & Performance

Profile

Dr. Hussman is the president and principal shareholder of Hussman Econometrics Advisors, the investment advisory firm that manages the Hussman Funds. He is also the President of the Hussman Investment Trust. Dr. Hussman manages Hussman Strategic Growth Fund, which invests primarily in U.S. stocks, and Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund, which invests primarily in U.S. Treasury and government agency securities.

From the fund inception in July 2000 to Oct. 31, 2008 , his Hussman Strategic Growth Fund averaged 9.9% a year, and has a cumulative gain of 118%, while the S&P500 lost more than 23%. For the 12 months ended Oct. 31, 2008 , his fund lost 0.3%, while the S&P500 lost more than 40%.

Prior to managing the Hussman Funds, Dr. Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan . His academic research centers on market efficiency and information economics. Dr. Hussman holds a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University (1992), and two degrees from Northwestern University : a Masters degree in education and social policy (1985) and a bachelors degree in economics (1983, Phi Beta Kappa).

Web Page:http://hussmanfunds.com/

Investing Philosophy

Dr. Hussman looks at two dimensions of information to adjust his willingness to take risk. The first is valuation. F avorable valuation means that stock prices appear reasonable in view of the stream of earnings, dividends, revenues and cash flows expected in the future. The second dimension is the quality of market action . Market action considers the behavior of a wide range of securities and industry groups, in an attempt to assess the economic outlook of investors and their willingness to accept market risk.

These two dimensions of information make up four basic "Market Climates" associated with various combinations of valuation and market action. For stocks, in order of most favorable to least favorable, these Climates are: favorable valuation / favorable market action, unfavorable valuation / favorable market action, favorable valuation / unfavorable market action, and unfavorable valuation / unfavorable market action.

In the most favorable Climates, Dr. Hussman will typically hold an aggressive allocation to market risk, while in the least favorable Climates, he will typically attempt to remove the impact of market fluctuations from the portfolio through hedging (Strategic Growth Fund) or reduction in the average maturity of bond holdings (Strategic Total Return Fund). The most defensive position is a fully hedged position in which the entire value of long positions is hedged.

Dr. Hussman writes a weekly commentary which provides deep insight about current stock market valuations and actions. We strongly encourage our users to read them. As of Nov. 23, he thinks that the market is at favorable valuation level but unfavorable market actions. He is 65% hedged with his equity portfolio.

Total Holding History

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Performance of Hussman Strategic Growth Fund

Year	Return (%)	S&P500 (%)	Excess Gain (%)
2012	-12.31	15.4	-27.7
2011	1.64	2.08	-0.4
2010	-3.62	15.06	-18.7
3-Year Cumulative	-14.1 (-4.9%/year)	35.5 (10.7%/year)	-49.6 (-15.6%/year)
2009	4.63	26.46	-21.8
2008	-9.02	-37	28.0
5-Year Cumulative	-18.2 (-3.9%/year)	8 (1.5%/year)	-26.2 (-5.4%/year)
2007	4.16	5.61	-1.5
2006	3.51	15.79	-12.3
2005	5.71	4.91	0.8
2004	5.16	12	-6.8
2003	21.08	28.7	-7.6
10-Year Cumulative	18.7 (1.7%/year)	99.7 (7.2%/year)	-81 (-5.5%/year)
2002	14.02	-22.1	36.1
2001	14.67	-11.9	26.6
2000	16.4	-9.1	25.5

Commentaries and Stories

Currently 2.00/5

Rating: 2.0/5 (15 votes)

John Hussman: The Price of Distortion

June 17, 2013

"Today, an economic forecast is more like the analysis of a criminal mind than the evaluation of economic data." More...

Currently 2.80/5

Rating: 2.8/5 (5 votes)

John Mauldin's Investing in the New Normal - Featuring Bass, El-Erian, Hussman

June 12, 2013

John Mauldin put together a tremendous group of financial market participants to discuss the investing environment today. More...

Currently 2.18/5

Rating: 2.2/5 (11 votes)

John Hussman Weekly Comment: 2009 vs. 2013

June 10, 2013

Let’s begin with a reminder of where we are in the market cycle. At present, the stock market is in a mature, heavily bullish, overbought, overvalued bull market advance, near a multi-year high in the S&P 500, with consumer confidence at similar multi-year highs, with the broad perception that downside risk is insignificant, and that “tail risk” has been eliminated. This is a dangerous place to be, because it is precisely where risk aversion is scarce and hated most by investors, and where risk aversion is most likely to be rewarded in the future. More...

Currently 3.80/5

Rating: 3.8/5 (5 votes)

Market Valuations and Expected Returns – June 6, 2013

June 7, 2013

In the first half of 2013, the stock market gained 2.44% in January, 0.10% in February, 3.36% in March, 2.27% in April and 3.04% in May. This is after a double-digit return gain in 2012. There is a saying that if the market is up in January, it will be up for the year. We don’t know if this is true, but it looks that way at least so far this year. As investors are happier with the higher balances in their account, they should never forget the word “RISK,” which is directly linked to the valuations of the asset they own. A higher current valuation always implies a lower future returns. More...

Currently 3.20/5

Rating: 3.2/5 (10 votes)

John Hussman - Following the Fed to 50% Flops

June 3, 2013

John Hussman - Following the Fed to 50% Flops (June 3, 2013) More...

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Rating: 1.7/5 (14 votes)

John Hussman - Rock, Paper, Scissors

May 28, 2013

From John Hussman: More...

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Rating: 1.0/5 (1 vote)

Market Observer John Mauldin on Japan - The Mother of All Painted in Corners

May 28, 2013

From John Mauldin: More...

Currently 2.00/5

Rating: 2.0/5 (2 votes)

Weekly Guru Bargains Highlights: ABX, HMY, AU, AAPL, GOLD

May 28, 2013

According to GuruFocus updates, these stocks have declined the most since Gurus bought them. More...

Currently 2.83/5

Rating: 2.8/5 (12 votes)

John Hussman: Not In Kansas Anymore

May 20, 2013

On overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions More...

Currently 2.00/5

Rating: 2.0/5 (2 votes)

Weekly Guru Bargains Highlights: GOLD, GFI, SAPMY, APPL, VOLC

May 20, 2013

According to GuruFocus updates, these stocks have declined the most since Gurus have bought. More...

Currently 0.00/5

Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes)

Weekly Guru Bargains Highlights: VOLC, SAPMY, BVN, NEM, TFM

May 13, 2013

According to GuruFocus updates, these stocks have declined the most since Gurus have bought. More...

Currently 3.67/5

Rating: 3.7/5 (3 votes)

Guru Stocks at 52-Week Lows: EC, OKS, LFL, LINE, EW

May 6, 2013

According to GuruFocus list of 52-week lows, these Guru stocks have reached their 52-week lows. More...

Currently 3.00/5

Rating: 3.0/5 (1 vote)

Weekly CEO Buys Highlight: KEG, ANCX, CNOB, BLMT, NEM

May 6, 2013

According to GuruFocus Insider Data, these are the largest CEO buys during the past week. The overall trend of CEOs is illustrated in the chart below: More...

Currently 1.00/5

Rating: 1.0/5 (2 votes)

Weekly Guru Bargains Highlights: GOLD, NEM, ABX, VOLC, GFI

May 6, 2013

According to GuruFocus updates, these stocks have declined the most since Gurus have bought. More...

Currently 5.00/5

Rating: 5.0/5 (3 votes)

Profiting From Foreign Profits: Are Corporate Profit Margins Abnormally Elevated Or Sustainable?

May 1, 2013

I’ve posted here regularly about the implications of mean reversion in elevated profit margins (see, for example, The Temptation To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn’t Different, What Record Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competition). Those posts sparked some intense debate in the comments and offline about the increasing influence of foreign profits on corporate profit margins, and how this change may have permanently shifted up the mean for corporate profits as a proportion of GDP. The impact of such a structural change in the mean is twofold: First, it implies that the current cyclical extreme in the level of corporate profits as a proportion of GDP is less extreme than More...

Currently 3.00/5

Rating: 3.0/5 (13 votes)

John Hussman: When Rich Valuations Meet Poor Economic Data

April 29, 2013

The advance estimate for first quarter GDP came in decidedly below expectations at a 2.5% annual rate, but even that rate belies the fact that real final sales slowed to just 1.5% growth, from 1.8% last quarter. The remaining 1% of the first-quarter growth figure – 40% of the total – represented the accumulation of unsold inventory. My view remains that the U.S. is unlikely to avoid joining the rest of the developed world in a global recession that is already underway, and may well be already underway in the U.S. once data revisions are reflected. The year-over-year growth rates of real GDP and real final sales have declined to just 1.80% and 1.87% respectively, which is the first time in this economic cycle that both have simultaneously declined from above 2.0% to below 1.9% - an occurrence that has been a hallmark of every post-war recession, with remarkably few false signals for such a simple measure. The Fed’s ability to kick-the-can in increments of a few months at a time may allow this time to be different, but investors should recognize that they are relying on that proposition. More...

Currently 4.00/5

Rating: 4.0/5 (1 vote)

Guru Stocks at 52-Week Lows: EC, BIDU, VMW, PKX, WIT

April 28, 2013

These Guru stocks have reached their 52-week lows, according to the GuruFocus list of 52-week lows. More...

Oil & Gas Integrated, Internet Content & Information, Software Infrastructure, Steel, Information Technology Services

Currently 3.00/5

Rating: 3.0/5 (3 votes)

What Record Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market

April 26, 2013

Corporate profit margins are presently 70 percent above the historical mean going back to 1947, as I’ve discussed earlier (see, for example, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competition). John Hussman attributes it to the record negative low in combined household and government savings: More...

Currently 3.67/5

Rating: 3.7/5 (3 votes)

Guru Favorites Report Insider Transactions

April 22, 2013

This past week, several large corporations reported their corporate executives and directors making rather large transactions within their companies. All of the companies are at (or are nearing) a 10-year high in prices. More...

Currently 2.94/5

Rating: 2.9/5 (16 votes)

John Hussman: The Endgame Is Forced Liquidation

April 22, 2013

“The stock market isn't the only thing that has set records this spring. Barron's semiannual Big Money poll of professional investors also is setting a record -- for bullishness, that is. In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks -- an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years.” “Dow 16000!” – Barron’s Magazine Big Money Poll 4/20/2013 More...