John Hussman

John Hussman

Last Update: 07-31-2015

Number of Stocks: 202
Number of New Stocks: 31

Total Value: $865 Mil
Q/Q Turnover: 18%

Countries: USA
Details: Top Buys | Top Sales | Top Holdings  Embed:

John Hussman' s Profile & Performance

Profile

Dr. Hussman is the president and principal shareholder of Hussman Strategic Advisors, the investment advisory firm that manages the Hussman Funds. He is also the President of the Hussman Investment Trust. Dr. Hussman manages Hussman Strategic Growth Fund, which invests primarily in U.S. stocks, and Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund, which invests primarily in U.S. Treasury and government agency securities.

From the fund inception in July 2000 to Oct. 31, 2008 , his Hussman Strategic Growth Fund averaged 9.9% a year, and has a cumulative gain of 118%, while the S&P500 lost more than 23%. For the 12 months ended Oct. 31, 2008 , his fund lost 0.3%, while the S&P500 lost more than 40%.

Prior to managing the Hussman Funds, Dr. Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan . His academic research centers on market efficiency and information economics. Dr. Hussman holds a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University (1992), and two degrees from Northwestern University : a Masters degree in education and social policy (1985) and a bachelors degree in economics (1983, Phi Beta Kappa).

Web Page:http://hussmanfunds.com/

Investing Philosophy

Dr. Hussman looks at two dimensions of information to adjust his willingness to take risk. The first is valuation. F avorable valuation means that stock prices appear reasonable in view of the stream of earnings, dividends, revenues and cash flows expected in the future. The second dimension is the quality of market action . Market action considers the behavior of a wide range of securities and industry groups, in an attempt to assess the economic outlook of investors and their willingness to accept market risk.

These two dimensions of information make up four basic "Market Climates" associated with various combinations of valuation and market action. For stocks, in order of most favorable to least favorable, these Climates are: favorable valuation / favorable market action, unfavorable valuation / favorable market action, favorable valuation / unfavorable market action, and unfavorable valuation / unfavorable market action.

In the most favorable Climates, Dr. Hussman will typically hold an aggressive allocation to market risk, while in the least favorable Climates, he will typically attempt to remove the impact of market fluctuations from the portfolio through hedging (Strategic Growth Fund) or reduction in the average maturity of bond holdings (Strategic Total Return Fund). The most defensive position is a fully hedged position in which the entire value of long positions is hedged.

Dr. Hussman writes a weekly commentary which provides deep insight about current stock market valuations and actions. We strongly encourage our users to read them. As of Nov. 23, he thinks that the market is at favorable valuation level but unfavorable market actions. He is 65% hedged with his equity portfolio.

Total Holding History

Performance of Hussman Strategic Growth Fund

YearReturn (%)S&P500 (%)Excess Gain (%)
2014-8.513.69-22.2
2013-6.6232.39-39.0
2012-12.6216-28.6
3-Year Cumulative-25.3 (-9.3%/year)74.6 (20.4%/year)-99.9 (-29.7%/year)
20111.642.11-0.5
2010-3.6215.06-18.7
5-Year Cumulative-26.9 (-6.1%/year)105.1 (15.5%/year)-132 (-21.6%/year)
20094.6326.46-21.8
2008-9.02-3728.0
20074.165.49-1.3
20063.5115.79-12.3
20055.714.910.8
10-Year Cumulative-20.7 (-2.3%/year)109.4 (7.7%/year)-130.1 (-10%/year)
20045.1610.88-5.7
200321.0828.68-7.6
200214.02-22.136.1
200114.67-11.8926.6
200016.4-9.125.5
15-Year Cumulative53.8 (2.9%/year)86.4 (4.2%/year)-32.6 (-1.3%/year)

Top Ranked Articles

Market Valuations and Expected Returns as of April 2012
Stock market had one of the best first quarter in many years. The factors that had driven down the market seem to have gone away to investors. All three of Down, S&P 500 and Nasdaq index are sitting above their multi-year highs. As always, we want to remind you again that higher past returns always means lower future returns and higher risks. Now it is time for our monthly review of the general market valuation and the expected returns again. Read more...
Market Valuations and Expected Returns – Feb. 5, 2014
The U.S. stock market had an excellent 2013. The performance of all three major U.S. stock indexes was the best since the financial crisis in 2008. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average continually hit historical highs. Yet the real reason for the bull market is nothing less than QE. Though some investors think the fundamentals of the U.S. economy continued to improve, for most Wall Street analysts, the Fed’s $85 billion monthly debt purchase plan is the real driving force behind the bull market. Read more...
Cheap Stocks Keep Getting Cheaper: Fundamentals and Warning Signs
Last year, several large, well-known companies became cheap enough to attract numerous big value investors. The big question surrounding many of these companies was whether they would overcome their problems, or were in permanent decline. Now several of the companies that seemed cheap then have gotten even cheaper. Read more...
How Should We Look at John Hussman's Performance Numbers?
Economist and fund manager Dr. John Hussman is drawing a lot of criticism these days for the poor performance of his funds. It seems to be fair and the reason is simple and straightforward: He is having some rough years and his performance numbers look bad. These are the annualized performance numbers of the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund as of Dec. 31, 2012: Read more...
Beware of the Dreaded Anchoring Bias (Citigroup Inc. as an Example) Beware of the Dreaded Anchoring Bias
Now that financial Armageddon is apparently off the table and markets have begun to stabilize a bit, is it time for investors to get back to good old fashioned stock picking? In other words, going forward will bottom up analysis of individual securities again be more important than the top down, macroeconomic view? Of course any definitive answer to those questions would be nothing more than speculation. However, if is it the case that company specific fundamentals are more likely to drive share prices now that the volatility has subsided, investors would be smart to revisit a couple of biases that could lead to poor returns. Accordingly, over the next few posts I will examine some of these biases and how they often play out among stock market participants.  Read more...
» More John Hussman Articles

Commentaries and Stories

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Strong Synergies Expected From Staples’ Acquisition of Office Depot
Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLS) recently reported earnings results for the second quarter. Its earnings results revealed some weakness in global sales growth which is expected to be revived from its acquisition of Office Depot (NASDAQ:ODP). On Feb. 4 Staples reported it would be acquiring Office Depot for $6.3 billion. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2015. Upon completion of the acquisition and integration of the Office Depot business, Staples expects pro forma annual revenue for the company to be $39 billion. More...

RETAIL


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Risk Turns Risky: Unpleasant Skew, Scale Dilation, and Broken Lines – John Hussman
Over the years, I’ve observed that overvalued, overbought, overbullish market conditions have historically been accompanied by what I call “unpleasant skew” – a succession of small but persistent marginal new highs, followed by a vertical collapse in which weeks or months of gains are wiped out in a handful of sessions. Provided that investors are in a risk-seeking mood (which we infer from the behavior of market internals), sufficiently aggressive monetary easing can delay this tendency, by starving investors of every source of safe return, and actively encouraging further yield-seeking speculation even when valuations are obscene. Once investors become risk averse, as deteriorating market internals have suggested in recent months, vertical declines much more extreme than last week's loss are quite ordinary. More...

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Nordstrom Beats Wall Street and Rallies Due to an Updated Guidance
In this article, let's take a look at Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN), a $15.54 billion market cap company, which is a specialty retailer of apparel and accessories, widely known for its emphasison service. More...

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Thin Slices From the Top of a Bubble – John Hussman
“You need to know very little to find the underlying signature of a complex phenomenon…. This is the gift of training and expertise – the ability to extract an enormous amount of meaningful information from the very thinnest slice of experience.” More...

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John Hussman Buys, Sells Most Valuable Stakes in Second Quarter John Hussman - John Hussman Buys, Sells Most Valuable Stakes In Second Quarter
John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio), president and principal shareholder of Hussman Strategic Advisors, devoted much of his attention in the second quarter to his existing stakes, buying or selling stock in seven of his 10 most valuable holdings. More...

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John Hussman Shakes Up Portfolio in Second Quarter John Hussman - John Hussman Shakes Up Portfolio In Second Quarter
Stock market analyst and mutual fund owner John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio) made his reputation by predicting the Great Recession of 2008-2009. In the second quarter of 2015, he shook up his Top 10 holdings by volume. More...

John Hussman


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Memorize This, Earn A Dollar – John Hussman
As a kid growing up in the 1960s, I earned my allowance the usual way; cutting grass and raking leaves. When there was no grass to cut or other work to do, my parents – who deeply valued education – would give us things to commit to memory. I figure I squeezed more than 30 bucks out of memorizing the multiplication tables up to 12. My brothers were better at memorizing poetry, but I was pretty good at song lyrics, which put me in good position to learn the words to countless '70s songs (e.g. "This really blew my mind. The fact that me, an over-faired, long-haired, leaping gnome, should be the star of a Hollywood movie. But, there I was"). I was not paid for this. More...

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John Hussman: Two Tiered Markets, Full Cycle Investing and The Benefits and Costs of Defense
“The Nifty Fifty appeared to rise up from the ocean; it was as though all of the U.S. but Nebraska had sunk into the sea. The two-tier market really consisted of one tier and a lot of rubble down below. What held the Nifty Fifty up? The same thing that held up tulip-bulb prices long ago in Holland - popular delusions and the madness of crowds. The delusion was that these companies were so good that it didn't matter what you paid for them; their inexorable growth would bail you out.” More...

John Hussman


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John Hussman: The One Lesson To Learn Before A Market Crash
Last week, the price of Greek government debt soared on hopes of an 11th hour stick-save bailout by the European Union. Unfortunately, that price jump still left Greek bonds priced to reflect a default probability of 100% at every maturity. The jump only reflected an increase in the amount that bondholders evidently expect to recover in default, raising the implied recovery rate from the recent low near 30% to something closer to 50%. Put another way, the bond market has fully priced in the likelihood of a default coupled with a major haircut on Greek debt. What prices may not reflect is that the style of the haircut Greece wants may be modeled after former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis. More...

John Hussman


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Judging The Future At A Speculative Peak – John Hussman
“I know of no way of judging the future but by the past.” – Patrick Henry More...

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Durable Returns, Transient Returns – John Hussman
Over the course of three speculative bubbles in the past 15 years, I’ve often made the distinction between “durable” investment returns and transient ones. At any point in time, the cumulative long-term return of the stock market equals the gain that investors can reasonably assume will be durable (in that it is unlikely to be surrendered in the future), plus whatever market gain investors should assume will be entirely wiped out over the course of the present or future market cycles. As it turns out, those two components can be identified with surprising accuracy. More...

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All Their Eggs In Janet's Basket – John Hussman
The financial markets are establishing an extreme that we expect investors will remember for the remainder of history, joining other memorable peers that include 1906, 1929, 1937, 1966, 1972, 2000 and 2007. The failure to recognize this moment as historic is largely because investors have been urged to believe things that aren’t true, have never been true and can be demonstrated to be untrue across a century of history. The broad market has been in an extended distribution process for nearly a year (during which the NYSE Composite has gone nowhere) yet every marginal high or brief market burst seems infinitely important from a short-sighted perspective. Like other major peaks throughout history, we expect that these minor details will be forgotten within the sheer scope of what follows. And like other historical extremes, the beliefs that enable them are widely embraced as common knowledge, though there is always, always, some wrinkle that makes “this time” seem different. That is why history only rhymes. But in its broad refrain, this time is not different. More...

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John Hussman: When You Look Back On This Moment In History
There are moments in time when durable history is made; history that others observe much later, shaking their heads, at a loss to understand how the events that followed could not have been obvious at the time. When you look back on this moment in history, remember these things. More...

John Hussman


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John Hussman: Why Stocks Are Not Cheap Relative To Bonds
One of the constant refrains we hear at present is that while stocks may be richly valued on an absolute basis, they are “cheap relative to bonds.” At least one professor recently told students that valuations are meaningless because the P/E on cash is 100. Technically, with T-bill yields at just 0.01%, the P/E on cash is more like 10,000, but let’s not quibble. Using simple P/E ratios or inverted interest rates as a standard of value only makes sense if you have no appreciation for how securities are valued. By this kind of standard, I would advise these students to propose that their professor give them each $100 in return for a promise of a single payment of $2 next year, on the argument that the P/E of 50 is a fraction of the "P/E on cash." More...

John Hussman, Bonds


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John Hussman: When Paper Wealth Vanishes
Present market conditions join the second most extreme valuations in U.S. history (on measures most reliably correlated with actual subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns) with increasing divergences and dispersion in market internals. Despite current extremes, valuations say very little about near term market direction. Valuations are enormously informative about likely market returns over horizons of 7-15 years. In contrast, market internals convey a great deal of information about the prevailing risk preferences of investors, and that's what amplifies our concerns here. Uniformly favorable internals across a wide variety of sectors and security types typically convey a signal that investors have a robust willingness to seek and accept risk, and it’s that feature that can allow overvalued markets to become persistently more overvalued. But remove that feature, and overvalued markets have often become vulnerable to vertical air pockets, panics, and crashes. More...

John Hussman


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Market Valuations and Expected Returns – May 19, 2015 John Hussman,Jeremy Grantham - Market Valuations And Expected Returns – May 19, 2015
The market was up more than 30% in 2013, the best year since the go-go years of 1990s. 2014 was another strong year for the market. The S&P 500 index was up more than 13%. Since the market recovery in 2009, the stock market has been up for 6 consecutive years. Yet in January 2015, the stock market benchmark S&P 500 lost 3.10%. In February, the market regained its strength by increasing 5.49%. Throughout March, the market went down by 1.74%. In April, the market was up by 0.85%. Can the market continue to grow in 2015? More...

Market valuation


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The New Era Is An Old Story – John Hussman
Since its 2014 high on December 29, the S&P 500 Index has gained 1.5% (not including a fraction of a percent in dividends), the Dow Industrial Average has gained 1.3%, the Dow Transportation Average is down -5.8%, the Dow Utilities Average is down -8.9%, market breadth has churned sideways, and investment grade corporate spreads are flat (though junk spreads have come in about two-tenths of a percent). The Nasdaq has been the star performer, with a 5% gain driven by glamor tech and internet stocks. The last week of December, the NYSE registered 478 new highs and 72 new lows. Last week, with the S&P 500 registering a marginal record high, the NYSE registered only 198 new highs, with 118 new lows. Since December, in weeks when the S&P 500 has declined, NYSE trading volume has increased from the prior week by an average of 351 million shares. In weeks that the S&P 500 has advanced, NYSE trading volume has contracted by an average of 565 million shares. On broad indices, the general pattern resembles a narrowing wedge with a relatively flat overhead resistance area and increasingly shallow dips. What we observe here is a market that continues to struggle internally and shows persistent More...

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John Hussman's Top Five New Buys in the First Quarter John hussman - John Hussman's Top Five New Buys In The First Quarter
Guru John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio), president and principal shareholder of Hussman Strategic Advisors, has been critical of U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve policies in the past – and reportedly predicted the 2008 recession. More...

STOCKS, NEW BUYS


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Pzena´s Strong Bet in the First Quarter Has Announced a Dividend Hike John Hussman - Pzena´s Strong Bet In The First Quarter Has Announced A Dividend Hike
In this article, let's take a look at Assurant Inc. (NYSE:AIZ), a $4.41 billion market cap company, which provides specialized insurance products and related services in North America, Latin America, Europe, and internationally. More...

TRAVEL, STOCK


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Two Point Three Sigmas Above The Norm John hussman - Two Point Three Sigmas Above The Norm
“If you want to say that valuation measures are higher now, and that should be the norm, or that low interest rates now justify higher valuation measures, what you’re really saying is that long-term prospective returns should be lower, and they should be in the 2-3% annual range looking out a decade.” More...

SHAREHOLDER, STOCK


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User Comments

Returns
ReplyReturns - 7 months ago
John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio), I think, has a set of unique investment views.
Returns
ReplyReturns - 7 months ago
John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio) has a quite unique set of market-related and investment views, I think
Returns
ReplyReturns - 7 months ago
John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio), in my view,displays an arrogance (that is, writes freely available weekly columns that - over the last five years - has basically labelled the market expensive, using criteria that, I think, he believes is only available to him )and market-ignorance (that is, he writes as one actually believing he can forecast the market's future - despite his forecasts and investment performance being consistently grossly inadequate.

I believe that, because of the above serious personality associated inappropriateness, John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio) should not be entrusted to manage others' investment funds.

My resultant opinion is that all investors remove their funds from his management.
Wal
ReplyWal - 1 year ago
How can you follow the investment methodology of Dr.John Hussman (Trades, Portfolio), when his fund has been loosing money for the past 5 years, and is rated 1 star only by Morningstar rating?
Am I missing something in here?
Traderatwork
ReplyTraderatwork - 1 year ago
S&P went up 100%+ in last 6 years,

Hussman fund last 5 years annual return is -3.5% EVERY YEAR!!!

Guru? Really?






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