Investors are tethered to the saga of the European sovereign debt crisis, producing gut-wrenching market gyrations. The threat of Greek (Spain, Italy…) default, European bank recapitalizations, and financial contagion have driven fear and uncertainty to the extreme, and caused investors globally to move en masse away from equities: “highly correlated moves,” in Wall Street parlance. Expecting the worst, investors have particularly penalized cyclical (or high-beta) stocks, driving valuation spreads between those and stable (low beta) stocks to almost unprecedented levels (Figure 1). On this basis alone, one could conclude that it is an awful time to reposition to low-beta stocks, as they are expensive compared to their cyclical counterparts (Figure 2). Even more importantly, we believe there is significant value opportunity in today’s beaten-down sectors. Over time, managements have demonstrated the ability to adapt, and overcome the obstacles in front of them, and to restore profitability in the wake of significant macroeconomic disruptions. Corporations today are well positioned to deal with near-term shocks should they arise, having de-leveraged their balance sheets and realigned
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