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GuruFocus Financial Strength Rank measures how strong a company’s financial situation is. It is based on these factors

1. The debt burden that the company has as measured by its Interest coverage (current year).
2. Debt to revenue ratio. The lower, the better
3. Altman Z-score.

A company ranks high with financial strength is likely to withstand any business slowdowns and recessions.

Financial Strength : 7/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Cash to Debt 0.58
CF's Cash to Debt is ranked higher than
75% of the 193 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 0.35 vs. CF: 0.58 )
CF' s 10-Year Cash to Debt Range
Min: 0.23   Max: No Debt
Current: 0.58

Equity to Asset 0.39
CF's Equity to Asset is ranked higher than
56% of the 181 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 0.50 vs. CF: 0.39 )
CF' s 10-Year Equity to Asset Range
Min: 0.39   Max: 0.71
Current: 0.39

0.39
0.71
Interest Coverage 15.85
CF's Interest Coverage is ranked higher than
56% of the 131 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 18.17 vs. CF: 15.85 )
CF' s 10-Year Interest Coverage Range
Min: 4.05   Max: 9999.99
Current: 15.85

4.05
9999.99
F-Score: 3
Z-Score: 2.97
M-Score: -2.60
GuruFocus Profitability Rank ranks how profitable a company is and how likely the company’s business will stay that way. It is based on these factors:

1. Operating Margin
2. Trend of the Operating Margin (5-year average). The company with an uptrend profit margin has a higher rank.
••3. Consistency of the profitability
4. Piotroski F-Score
5. Predictability Rank•

The maximum rank is 10. A rank of 7 or higher means a higher profitability and may stay that way. A rank of 3 or lower indicates that the company has had trouble to make a profit.

Profitability Rank is not directly related to the Financial Strength Rank. But if a company is consistently profitable, its financial strength will be stronger.

Profitability & Growth : 7/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Operating margin (%) 51.77
CF's Operating margin (%) is ranked higher than
99% of the 185 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 9.72 vs. CF: 51.77 )
CF' s 10-Year Operating margin (%) Range
Min: -11.58   Max: 48.48
Current: 51.77

-11.58
48.48
Net-margin (%) 30.45
CF's Net-margin (%) is ranked higher than
98% of the 185 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 5.86 vs. CF: 30.45 )
CF' s 10-Year Net-margin (%) Range
Min: -6.4   Max: 30.29
Current: 30.45

-6.4
30.29
ROE (%) 30.65
CF's ROE (%) is ranked higher than
97% of the 190 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 7.49 vs. CF: 30.65 )
CF' s 10-Year ROE (%) Range
Min: -7.59   Max: 54.22
Current: 30.65

-7.59
54.22
ROA (%) 12.98
CF's ROA (%) is ranked higher than
95% of the 193 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 4.12 vs. CF: 12.98 )
CF' s 10-Year ROA (%) Range
Min: -4.25   Max: 31.12
Current: 12.98

-4.25
31.12
ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) 54.93
CF's ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) is ranked higher than
97% of the 193 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 11.21 vs. CF: 54.93 )
CF' s 10-Year ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) Range
Min: 11.45   Max: 178.95
Current: 54.93

11.45
178.95
Revenue Growth (%) 15.10
CF's Revenue Growth (%) is ranked higher than
82% of the 171 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 6.80 vs. CF: 15.10 )
CF' s 10-Year Revenue Growth (%) Range
Min: 0   Max: 26.1
Current: 15.1

0
26.1
EBITDA Growth (%) 32.90
CF's EBITDA Growth (%) is ranked higher than
88% of the 163 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 5.30 vs. CF: 32.90 )
CF' s 10-Year EBITDA Growth (%) Range
Min: 0   Max: 81.1
Current: 32.9

0
81.1
EPS Growth (%) 66.70
CF's EPS Growth (%) is ranked higher than
96% of the 146 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 3.90 vs. CF: 66.70 )
CF' s 10-Year EPS Growth (%) Range
Min: 0   Max: 131.4
Current: 66.7

0
131.4
» CF's 10-Y Financials

Financials


Revenue & Net Income
Cash & Debt
Oprt. Cash Flow & Free Cash Flow

» Details

Guru Trades

Q4 2013

CF Guru Trades in Q4 2013

Ray Dalio 4,400 sh (New)
David Dreman 542 sh (New)
Steven Cohen 5,585 sh (+224.71%)
John Burbank 524,881 sh (+149.62%)
Louis Moore Bacon 32,800 sh (+64%)
Jeff Ubben Sold Out
Daniel Loeb Sold Out
Ken Fisher 36,807 sh (-2.19%)
Joel Greenblatt 58,753 sh (-9.43%)
Jim Simons 722,800 sh (-29.72%)
George Soros 37,500 sh (-89.63%)
» More
Q1 2014

CF Guru Trades in Q1 2014

Daniel Loeb 966,500 sh (New)
John Burbank 766,226 sh (+45.98%)
Steven Cohen 5,700 sh (+2.06%)
John Burbank 400,000 sh (unchged)
George Soros Sold Out
Ray Dalio Sold Out
Ken Fisher 35,257 sh (-4.21%)
David Dreman 501 sh (-7.56%)
Jim Simons 553,200 sh (-23.46%)
Louis Moore Bacon 16,450 sh (-49.85%)
Joel Greenblatt 17,573 sh (-70.09%)
» More
Q2 2014

CF Guru Trades in Q2 2014

Ray Dalio 8,400 sh (New)
John Hussman 20,000 sh (New)
Paul Tudor Jones 2,262 sh (New)
John Burbank 1,053,615 sh (+37.51%)
Louis Moore Bacon 18,507 sh (+12.5%)
David Dreman 535 sh (+6.79%)
John Burbank 1,000,000 sh (unchged)
Ken Fisher 34,632 sh (-1.77%)
Daniel Loeb 905,000 sh (-6.36%)
Joel Greenblatt 14,991 sh (-14.69%)
Jim Simons 277,050 sh (-49.92%)
» More
Q3 2014

CF Guru Trades in Q3 2014

George Soros 28,712 sh (New)
Steven Cohen 60,300 sh (New)
John Hussman 35,000 sh (+75%)
David Dreman 603 sh (+12.71%)
John Burbank 1,530,000 sh (unchged)
Ray Dalio Sold Out
Paul Tudor Jones Sold Out
John Burbank 996,189 sh (-5.45%)
Ken Fisher 32,652 sh (-5.72%)
Daniel Loeb 760,000 sh (-16.02%)
Louis Moore Bacon 8,450 sh (-54.34%)
Jim Simons 108,450 sh (-60.86%)
Joel Greenblatt 3,063 sh (-79.57%)
» More
» Details

Insider Trades

Latest Guru Trades with CF

(List those with share number changes of more than 20%, or impact to portfolio more than 0.1%)

GuruDate Trades Impact to Portfolio Price Range * (?) Current Price Change from Average Current Shares
Daniel Loeb 2014-09-30 Reduce -16.02%0.43%$239.78 - $278.62 $ 278.3810%760000
John Hussman 2014-09-30 Add 75%0.36%$239.78 - $278.62 $ 278.3810%35000
John Burbank 2014-09-30 Reduce -5.45%0.23%$239.78 - $278.62 $ 278.3810%996189
George Soros 2014-09-30 New Buy0.06%$239.78 - $278.62 $ 278.3810%28712
Joel Greenblatt 2014-09-30 Reduce -79.57%0.04%$239.78 - $278.62 $ 278.3810%3063
Ray Dalio 2014-09-30 Sold Out 0.02%$239.78 - $278.62 $ 278.3810%0
John Burbank 2014-06-30 Add 37.51%1.17%$235.24 - $266.38 $ 278.3814%1053615
John Hussman 2014-06-30 New Buy0.37%$235.24 - $266.38 $ 278.3814%20000
Daniel Loeb 2014-06-30 Reduce -6.36%0.24%$235.24 - $266.38 $ 278.3814%905000
Ray Dalio 2014-06-30 New Buy0.02%$235.24 - $266.38 $ 278.3814%8400
Daniel Loeb 2014-03-31 New Buy3.7%$224.92 - $264.48 $ 278.3815%966500
John Burbank 2014-03-31 Add 45.98%1.73%$224.92 - $264.48 $ 278.3815%766226
Joel Greenblatt 2014-03-31 Reduce -70.09%0.23%$224.92 - $264.48 $ 278.3815%17573
George Soros 2014-03-31 Sold Out 0.07%$224.92 - $264.48 $ 278.3815%0
Ray Dalio 2014-03-31 Sold Out 0.01%$224.92 - $264.48 $ 278.3815%0
Daniel Loeb 2013-12-31 Sold Out 4.6%$204.55 - $237.07 $ 278.3827%0
Jeff Ubben 2013-12-31 Sold Out 2.7%$204.55 - $237.07 $ 278.3827%0
John Burbank 2013-12-31 Add 149.62%2.52%$204.55 - $237.07 $ 278.3827%524881
George Soros 2013-12-31 Reduce -89.63%0.74%$204.55 - $237.07 $ 278.3827%37500
David Dreman 2013-12-31 New Buy0.01%$204.55 - $237.07 $ 278.3827%542
Ray Dalio 2013-12-31 New Buy0.01%$204.55 - $237.07 $ 278.3827%4400
Premium More recent guru trades are included for Premium Members only!!
Premium More recent guru trades are included for USA Subscribe Members only!!
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Peter Lynch Chart ( What is Peter Lynch Charts )

Guru Investment Theses on CF Industries Holdings Inc

Daniel Loeb Comments on CF Industries - Jul 30, 2013

Equity Position: CF Industries (CF)

CF Industries is North America's largest nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer and one of the lowest-cost producers globally. CF currently trades at an unwarranted discount to fertilizer and commodity chemical peers. We believe its structural cash flow generation strength is misunderstood and that management should deliver a much larger dividend to its shareholders. Such a dividend would highlight the sustainability of its cash flow generation and lead to a substantial re-rating.

CF's access to low-cost North American natural gas – the primary input in nitrogen fertilizer production – gives the company a structural, sustainable margin capture relative to global peers with higher input costs. These same competitors provide a floor for the nitrogen fertilizer price, because they idle production when the price nears their cost("the cost floor"). The spread between CF's production cost and that of the higher cost producers is a sustainable stream of cash flow for CF, with limited volatility. Using an onerous set of assumptions for this spread ($5 Henry Hub/natural gas input cost and $275 per ton nitrogen fertilizer price), we estimate that this cash flow stream would be ~$1.2 billion annually (operating free cash flow less maintenance CapEx, post expansion). On today's equity value, that would mean CF is currently trading at an 11% free cash flow yield using these onerous assumptions. Given the low-risk profile of this portion of CF's cash flow, it should receive a bond-like multiple (e.g. 7 - 8% yield), which alone implies significant upside to the current share price.

CF management has the ability to highlight the value of this stable cash flow stream by paying a significant portion of it as a dividend. A high dividend payout would still leave CF's leverage well below the 3x debt to EBITDA criteria that Moody's recently established as adequate to maintain their current debt rating of Baa2.

Additionally, when the nitrogen price rises above the "cost floor," which often happens when demand exceeds supply (2012 average price $408/ton), CF generates cash flows incremental to the stable cash flows discussed above. Even using a 4x cash flow multiple for this more volatile earnings stream suggests an additional $15 of value per share for every $25 change in nitrogen price above the cost floor. Finally, we believe that executing the remaining $2.25 billion of CF's share buyback authorization could be ~20% accretive to the estimates detailed above.

CF has been underperforming recently despite the emergence of several positive indicators, including reduced Chinese plant operating rates, reports of capacity idling in Eastern Europe, and the shelving of two plant expansions in North America. This underperformance reinforces our view that a dividend strategy based on CF's stable cash flow stream would lead investors to reassess the company's valuation.

(Note: All nitrogen prices are Urea on a fob Black Sea basis in metric tonnes.)

From Third Point's second quarter 2013 letter.
Check out Daniel Loeb latest stock trades

Ratios

vs
industry
vs
history
P/E(ttm) 10.20
CF's P/E(ttm) is ranked higher than
91% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 23.50 vs. CF: 10.20 )
CF' s 10-Year P/E(ttm) Range
Min: 3.84   Max: 188.51
Current: 10.2

3.84
188.51
P/B 3.08
CF's P/B is ranked higher than
53% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 1.96 vs. CF: 3.08 )
CF' s 10-Year P/B Range
Min: 0.84   Max: 6.46
Current: 3.08

0.84
6.46
P/S 3.06
CF's P/S is ranked higher than
53% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 1.62 vs. CF: 3.06 )
CF' s 10-Year P/S Range
Min: 0.39   Max: 3.06
Current: 3.06

0.39
3.06
EV-to-EBIT 6.43
CF's EV-to-EBIT is ranked higher than
92% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 18.28 vs. CF: 6.43 )
CF' s 10-Year EV-to-EBIT Range
Min: 1.5   Max: 26.4
Current: 6.43

1.5
26.4
PEG 0.28
CF's PEG is ranked higher than
96% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 9999.00 vs. CF: 0.28 )
CF' s 10-Year PEG Range
Min: 0.11   Max: 0.54
Current: 0.28

0.11
0.54
Shiller P/E 14.21
CF's Shiller P/E is ranked higher than
91% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 153.29 vs. CF: 14.21 )
CF' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Range
Min: 10.53   Max: 24.61
Current: 14.21

10.53
24.61
Current Ratio 3.18
CF's Current Ratio is ranked higher than
86% of the 193 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 1.54 vs. CF: 3.18 )
CF' s 10-Year Current Ratio Range
Min: 1.31   Max: 4.73
Current: 3.18

1.31
4.73
Quick Ratio 2.94
CF's Quick Ratio is ranked higher than
92% of the 193 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 1.06 vs. CF: 2.94 )
CF' s 10-Year Quick Ratio Range
Min: 0.7   Max: 4.44
Current: 2.94

0.7
4.44

Dividend & Buy Back

vs
industry
vs
history
Dividend Yield 1.80
CF's Dividend Yield is ranked higher than
51% of the 149 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 1.99 vs. CF: 1.80 )
CF' s 10-Year Dividend Yield Range
Min: 0.06   Max: 1.84
Current: 1.8

0.06
1.84
Dividend Payout 0.16
CF's Dividend Payout is ranked higher than
87% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 0.65 vs. CF: 0.16 )
CF' s 10-Year Dividend Payout Range
Min: 0.01   Max: 0.57
Current: 0.16

0.01
0.57
Dividend growth (3y) 76.50
CF's Dividend growth (3y) is ranked higher than
94% of the 97 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 11.90 vs. CF: 76.50 )
CF' s 10-Year Dividend growth (3y) Range
Min: 0   Max: 171.4
Current: 76.5

0
171.4
Yield on cost (5-Year) 19.78
CF's Yield on cost (5-Year) is ranked higher than
92% of the 150 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 2.27 vs. CF: 19.78 )
CF' s 10-Year Yield on cost (5-Year) Range
Min: 0.66   Max: 20.22
Current: 19.78

0.66
20.22
Share Buyback Rate 3.30
CF's Share Buyback Rate is ranked higher than
91% of the 134 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: -0.20 vs. CF: 3.30 )
CF' s 10-Year Share Buyback Rate Range
Min: 0   Max: -9.6
Current: 3.3

Valuation & Return

vs
industry
vs
history
Price/Tangible Book 5.86
CF's Price/Tangible Book is ranked lower than
53% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 2.36 vs. CF: 5.86 )
CF' s 10-Year Price/Tangible Book Range
Min: 1.01   Max: 5.88
Current: 5.86

1.01
5.88
Price/DCF (Projected) 0.80
CF's Price/DCF (Projected) is ranked higher than
92% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 208.84 vs. CF: 0.80 )
CF' s 10-Year Price/DCF (Projected) Range
Min: 0.54   Max: 1.3
Current: 0.8

0.54
1.3
Price/Median PS Value 1.59
CF's Price/Median PS Value is ranked higher than
50% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 1.07 vs. CF: 1.59 )
CF' s 10-Year Price/Median PS Value Range
Min: 0.22   Max: 1.59
Current: 1.59

0.22
1.59
Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value 0.41
CF's Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value is ranked higher than
96% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 9999.00 vs. CF: 0.41 )
CF' s 10-Year Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value Range
Min: 0.24   Max: 1.21
Current: 0.41

0.24
1.21
Price/Graham Number 1.54
CF's Price/Graham Number is ranked higher than
77% of the 200 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 2.03 vs. CF: 1.54 )
CF' s 10-Year Price/Graham Number Range
Min: 0.62   Max: 2.18
Current: 1.54

0.62
2.18
Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) 15.60
CF's Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) is ranked higher than
92% of the 189 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 6.00 vs. CF: 15.60 )
CF' s 10-Year Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) Range
Min: 3.8   Max: 68.7
Current: 15.6

3.8
68.7
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) 43.09
CF's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) is ranked higher than
97% of the 147 Companies
in the Global Agricultural Inputs industry.

( Industry Median: 1.61 vs. CF: 43.09 )
CF' s 10-Year Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) Range
Min: 37.3   Max: 106.8
Current: 43.09

37.3
106.8

Business Description

Industry: Agriculture » Agricultural Inputs
Compare:SYT, POT, AVD, AGU, MON » details
Traded in other countries:C4F.Germany
CF Industries Holdings Inc was founded in 1946. The Company is a manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products in the world. The business of the Company is divided into two operating segments, the Nitrogen and the Phosphate segment. The Company's products in the nitrogen segment are ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, or UAN, and ammonium nitrate, or AN. The Company's other nitrogen products include urea liquor, diesel exhaust fluid, or DEF, and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers. The Company operates seven nitrogen fertilizer production facilities in North America. The Company's products in the phosphate segment are diammonium phosphate, or DAP, and monoammonium phosphate, or MAP. The Company's core market and distribution facilities are concentrated in the Midwestern United States and other agricultural areas of the U.S. and Canada. The Company also exports nitrogen fertilizer products from its Donaldsonville, Louisiana manufacturing facilities and phosphate fertilizer products from its Florida phosphate operations through its Tampa port facility. As of December 31, 2013, the Company's Hardee rock mine had approximately 11 years of fully permitted recoverable phosphate reserves remaining at current operating rates. The Company operates a phosphate fertilizer warehouse located at a deep-water port facility in Tampa, Florida. The phosphate fertilizer produced at Plant City is shipped by truck or rail to it's Tampa warehouse, where it is loaded onto vessels for shipment to export customers or for transport across the Gulf of Mexico to the Mississippi River. In 2013, Martin Sulphur, the Company's molten sulfur supplier, supplied approximately 63% of the molten sulfur used at Plant City. Plant City phosphate fertilizer complex consumes approximately 400,000 tons of ammonia annually. The ammonia used at Plant City phosphate fertilizer complex is shipped by rail from it's ammonia storage facility located in Tampa, Florida. This facility consists of a 38,000-ton ammonia storage tank, access to a deep-water dock that is capable of discharging ocean-going vessels, and rail and truck loading facilities. In Nitrogen segment, North American-based competitors include Agrium Inc. and Koch Nitrogen Company. In Phosphate segment, North American-based competitors include Agrium, Mosaic, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. and J.R. Simplot Company. The Company is subject to numerous environmental, health and safety laws and regulations, including laws and regulations relating to land reclamation; the generation, treatment, storage, disposal and handling of hazardous substances and wastes; and the cleanup of hazardous substance releases.
» More Articles for CF

Headlines

Articles On GuruFocus.com
The Gurus to Follow Based on Sector – Part 1 Nov 03 2014 
Can Rumors and Weather Change the Outlook for Fertilizer Producers? Mar 06 2014 
Can an Algorithm Beat Jeff Ubben? The Agriculture Industry and Renaissance Technologies Nov 19 2013 
John Burbank's Top 10 Third Quarter Buys Nov 14 2013 
Lowest P/E Stocks in Soros Portfolio Oct 12 2013 
Growing Population and Breaking Cartels: Agricultural Inputs Sep 03 2013 
Daniel Loeb Comments on CF Industries Jul 30 2013 
Daniel Loeb's Third Point Second Quarter 2013 Investor Letter Jul 30 2013 
Titan Investor George Soros Sold Out 50 Companies May 20 2013 
comment on CF May 15 2013 

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