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GuruFocus Financial Strength Rank measures how strong a company’s financial situation is. It is based on these factors

1. The debt burden that the company has as measured by its Interest coverage (current year).
2. Debt to revenue ratio. The lower, the better
3. Altman Z-score.

A company ranks high with financial strength is likely to withstand any business slowdowns and recessions.

Financial Strength : 8/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Cash to Debt No Debt
CMG's Cash to Debt is ranked higher than
98% of the 309 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 0.83 vs. CMG: No Debt )
CMG' s 10-Year Cash to Debt Range
Min: 1.07   Max: No Debt
Current: No Debt

Equity to Asset 0.77
CMG's Equity to Asset is ranked higher than
86% of the 305 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 0.54 vs. CMG: 0.77 )
CMG' s 10-Year Equity to Asset Range
Min: 0.72   Max: 0.85
Current: 0.77

0.72
0.85
Interest Coverage No Debt
CMG's Interest Coverage is ranked higher than
94% of the 251 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 15.87 vs. CMG: No Debt )
CMG' s 10-Year Interest Coverage Range
Min: 31.97   Max: 9999.99
Current: No Debt

31.97
9999.99
F-Score: 7
Z-Score: 24.79
M-Score: -2.74
GuruFocus Profitability Rank ranks how profitable a company is and how likely the company’s business will stay that way. It is based on these factors:

1. Operating Margin
2. Trend of the Operating Margin (5-year average). The company with an uptrend profit margin has a higher rank.
••3. Consistency of the profitability
4. Piotroski F-Score
5. Predictability Rank•

The maximum rank is 10. A rank of 7 or higher means a higher profitability and may stay that way. A rank of 3 or lower indicates that the company has had trouble to make a profit.

Profitability Rank is not directly related to the Financial Strength Rank. But if a company is consistently profitable, its financial strength will be stronger.

Profitability & Growth : 8/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Operating margin (%) 16.57
CMG's Operating margin (%) is ranked higher than
92% of the 307 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 6.84 vs. CMG: 16.57 )
CMG' s 10-Year Operating margin (%) Range
Min: -18.79   Max: 16.69
Current: 16.57

-18.79
16.69
Net-margin (%) 10.19
CMG's Net-margin (%) is ranked higher than
91% of the 307 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 4.05 vs. CMG: 10.19 )
CMG' s 10-Year Net-margin (%) Range
Min: -18.24   Max: 10.19
Current: 10.19

-18.24
10.19
ROE (%) 21.29
CMG's ROE (%) is ranked higher than
88% of the 301 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9.80 vs. CMG: 21.29 )
CMG' s 10-Year ROE (%) Range
Min: -19.4   Max: 22.31
Current: 21.29

-19.4
22.31
ROA (%) 16.30
CMG's ROA (%) is ranked higher than
96% of the 308 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 4.58 vs. CMG: 16.30 )
CMG' s 10-Year ROA (%) Range
Min: -16.39   Max: 16.66
Current: 16.3

-16.39
16.66
ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) 55.31
CMG's ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) is ranked higher than
92% of the 306 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 18.51 vs. CMG: 55.31 )
CMG' s 10-Year ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) Range
Min: 2.11   Max: 55.31
Current: 55.31

2.11
55.31
Revenue Growth (%) 21.10
CMG's Revenue Growth (%) is ranked higher than
98% of the 176 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 6.70 vs. CMG: 21.10 )
CMG' s 10-Year Revenue Growth (%) Range
Min: 19.1   Max: 32.3
Current: 21.1

19.1
32.3
EBITDA Growth (%) 21.20
CMG's EBITDA Growth (%) is ranked higher than
89% of the 145 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 5.90 vs. CMG: 21.20 )
CMG' s 10-Year EBITDA Growth (%) Range
Min: 21.2   Max: 63
Current: 21.2

21.2
63
EPS Growth (%) 22.90
CMG's EPS Growth (%) is ranked higher than
90% of the 134 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9.20 vs. CMG: 22.90 )
CMG' s 10-Year EPS Growth (%) Range
Min: 18.2   Max: 107
Current: 22.9

18.2
107
» CMG's 10-Y Financials

Financials


Revenue & Net Income
Cash & Debt
Oprt. Cash Flow & Free Cash Flow

» Details

Guru Trades

Q1 2013

CMG Guru Trades in Q1 2013

Caxton Associates 25,000 sh (New)
Steven Cohen 45,996 sh (+359.96%)
Frank Sands 2,822,469 sh (+22.38%)
Eric Mindich 400,000 sh (+14.29%)
Pioneer Investments 68,958 sh (+4.03%)
Jim Simons 236,999 sh (-4.93%)
Louis Moore Bacon 30,000 sh (-14.29%)
» More
Q2 2013

CMG Guru Trades in Q2 2013

Steven Cohen 320,394 sh (+596.57%)
Pioneer Investments 146,401 sh (+112.3%)
Eric Mindich Sold Out
Caxton Associates Sold Out
Louis Moore Bacon Sold Out
Frank Sands 2,816,255 sh (-0.22%)
Jim Simons 69,600 sh (-70.63%)
» More
Q3 2013

CMG Guru Trades in Q3 2013

Louis Moore Bacon 3,000 sh (New)
Jim Simons 186,700 sh (+168.25%)
Frank Sands 2,779,209 sh (-1.32%)
Pioneer Investments 126,077 sh (-13.88%)
Steven Cohen 29,617 sh (-90.76%)
» More
Q4 2013

CMG Guru Trades in Q4 2013

Bill Frels 1,030 sh (New)
Jeremy Grantham 6,230 sh (New)
Steven Cohen 76,050 sh (+156.78%)
Jim Simons 271,200 sh (+45.26%)
Louis Moore Bacon Sold Out
Frank Sands 2,324,080 sh (-16.38%)
Pioneer Investments 48,954 sh (-61.17%)
» More
» Details

Insider Trades

Latest Guru Trades with CMG

GuruDate Trades Impact to Portfolio Price Range * (?) Current Price Change from Average Current Shares
Frank Sands 2013-12-31 Reduce -16.38%0.54%$426.5 - $546.97 $ 519.612%2324080
Frank Sands 2013-03-31 Add 22.38%0.6%$280.94 - $329.24 $ 519.6167%2822469
Frank Sands 2012-12-31 New Buy2.7%$236.24 - $302.96 $ 519.6190%2306224
John Hussman 2011-09-30 Sold Out 1.2424%$279.37 - $336.14 $ 519.6164%0
John Hussman 2011-03-31 Add 15.6%0.18%$212.66 - $272.95 $ 519.61115%289000
Mario Gabelli 2011-03-31 Sold Out $212.66 - $272.95 $ 519.61115%0
Premium More recent guru trades are included for Premium Members only!!
» Interactive Charts

Peter Lynch Chart ( What is Peter Lynch Charts )

Guru Investment Theses on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

David Einhorn Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill - Oct 16, 2013

But even in conventionally valued stocks where the fundamentals have largely gone our way, it has been hard to make money on shorts. In many cases we’ve lost money. Let’s consider Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). In recent years through the end of 2011, CMG and other upstarts in the fast-casual restaurant segment achieved substantial growth by offering consumers a higher quality menu than is typically found in fast-food chains. In contrast, Taco Bell (the largest Mexican fast-food chain) had lackluster and often negative growth. In early 2012, Taco Bell expanded its offerings to include new gourmet-style dishes as part of its Cantina Bell menu and introduced Doritos Locos Tacos. We believed that these innovations would enable Taco Bell to recapture market share from CMG. This is exactly what happened:

Notably, CMG’s comparable store sales benefit by about 2.5% per year because the company has a large number of new stores entering the comp base each year, which naturally ramp their volumes. Since Taco Bell has a mature store base, its comparable store sales don’t share that tailwind.

When we presented our thesis that Taco Bell would gain share, we received widespread ridicule from CMG’s customers in the investment community. But CMG also serves a younger demographic who are likely to be more sensitive to food prices than stock prices. It seems like Taco Bell has, in fact, gained share from this group.We surmise that this has led CMG to reconsider its strategy. In January 2013, the company strongly hinted that it would raise prices this year. Historically, CMG had been able to raise prices with impunity. However, with comparable store sales running in the low single digits, management decided to postpone the increase until 2014, when they plan to raise prices in conjunction with announcing that all their food is GMO-free. We believe that competition, particularly for college aged patrons, has reduced CMG’s ability to raise prices without losing customers and, based on its actions, it appears management agrees.

The result of all of this is that CMG is now expected to earn less in both 2013 and 2014 than consensus believed prior to Taco Bell’s innovations. Unfortunately for us, the market has rewarded CMG with an expanded P/E multiple, which is quite surprising in the face of falling comparable store sales, slowing and disappointing earnings growth, and a loss of pricing power.Such is the nature of the current market environment. Muy Loco!

From David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital third quarter 2013 letter.


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David Einhorn Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill - Oct 24, 2012

At the recent Value Investing Congress, David updated our view of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), elaborated on our General Motors (GM) and Cigna (CI) theses, and disclosed our short position in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).

...

In presenting our short thesis on CMG (CMG), we noted that the stock trades at a premium multiple but faces significant headwinds including rising food costs, higher healthcare costs related to Obamacare, and competition from a resurgent Taco Bell. We conducted a consumer survey that provided evidence that Taco Bell's new Cantina Bell menu, priced at a substantial discount to CMG's average menu item, will draw customers away from CMG.

The protests from CMG's bullish supporters can be summarized as:

 ¡No Quiero Taco Bell!

 Have you ever actually tried the food!?!

 Have you seen the lines at CMG?

CMG and its bullish supporters insist that CMG has a completely different customer base than Taco Bell. However, our survey results show otherwise. We believe Taco Bell will pluck away some percentage of CMG's customers, which will cause CMG's same store sales to deteriorate. Given CMG's high valuation, we don't believe the market will be forgiving.

We surveyed 1,608 CMG customers. Of those, 25% never go to Taco Bell, and their median income (about $59,300) skews higher than the average CMG customer. Of the remaining 75%, almost one-third of them had ordered from the Cantina Bell menu within the first 50 days of launch. The preliminary results aren't favorable for CMG: Half preferred CMG, but the other half either preferred Cantina Bell or rated them equally. The latter group tends to be younger (median age: 26) and less well-to-do (median income: $36,600).

More importantly, we found that CMG's highest frequency customer—those who go a couple times a week or more—are much more likely to have tried Cantina Bell, more likely to prefer Cantina Bell to CMG, more likely to return to Taco Bell more often as a result of the Cantina Bell menu introduction, and twice as likely to cut down on trips to CMG as compared to the average CMG customer.

Our survey found that more than a third of CMG's customers are 18-24 years old (we didn't survey people younger than 18) and more than two-fifths of CMG's customers earn less than $40,000 per year. On the margin, this group is likely to show up at CMG a bit less often. The Partnerships closed out their CareFusion (CFN) position during the quarter. The company failed to achieve the earnings we hoped it could generate. Even so, the investment compounded at a double-digit rate over our three years of ownership. We wish all our "unsuccessful" investments did so well.

From Greenlight Capital's third quarter letter.


Check out David Einhorn latest stock trades

Top Ranked Articles about Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

David Einhorn Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill
But even in conventionally valued stocks where the fundamentals have largely gone our way, it has been hard to make money on shorts. In many cases we’ve lost money. Let’s consider Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). In recent years through the end of 2011, CMG and other upstarts in the fast-casual restaurant segment achieved substantial growth by offering consumers a higher quality menu than is typically found in fast-food chains. In contrast, Taco Bell (the largest Mexican fast-food chain) had lackluster and often negative growth. In early 2012, Taco Bell expanded its offerings to include new gourmet-style dishes as part of its Cantina Bell menu and introduced Doritos Locos Tacos. We believed that these innovations would enable Taco Bell to recapture market share from CMG. This is exactly what happened: Read more...
Wunderkind Eric Mindich - Eton Park's Six Sold Out
Founded by former Goldman Sachs youngest-ever partner Eric Mindich in 2004, Eton Park Capital Management is a multi-strategy hedge fund with offices in New York, London and Hong Kong. At present Eton Park has $19.4 billion in assets under management and Mindich has averaged a return of 21.88% over 12 months. Read more...
David Einhorn’s Stopped Shorts
David Einhorn has been known to pull down celebrated companies from their lofty heights with a single presentation showcasing their ill-boding fundamental and market flaws based on research from his hedge fund, Greenlight Capital. Chipotle (CMG), Herbalife (HLF) and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) have all been Einhorn targets. Read more...

Ratios

vs
industry
vs
history
P/E(ttm) 52.90
CMG's P/E(ttm) is ranked lower than
66% of the 261 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 24.90 vs. CMG: 52.90 )
CMG' s 10-Year P/E(ttm) Range
Min: 16.55   Max: 103.55
Current: 52.9

16.55
103.55
P/B 11.10
CMG's P/B is ranked lower than
80% of the 287 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 2.54 vs. CMG: 11.10 )
CMG' s 10-Year P/B Range
Min: 2.05   Max: 12.29
Current: 11.1

2.05
12.29
P/S 5.38
CMG's P/S is ranked lower than
89% of the 311 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.09 vs. CMG: 5.38 )
CMG' s 10-Year P/S Range
Min: 1.03   Max: 5.95
Current: 5.38

1.03
5.95
PFCF 52.60
CMG's PFCF is ranked lower than
71% of the 157 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 26.50 vs. CMG: 52.60 )
CMG' s 10-Year PFCF Range
Min: 18.93   Max: 1238
Current: 52.6

18.93
1238
EV-to-EBIT 31.30
CMG's EV-to-EBIT is ranked lower than
68% of the 280 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 17.53 vs. CMG: 31.30 )
CMG' s 10-Year EV-to-EBIT Range
Min: 8.8   Max: 61.2
Current: 31.3

8.8
61.2
PEG 2.10
CMG's PEG is ranked higher than
65% of the 117 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 2.75 vs. CMG: 2.10 )
CMG' s 10-Year PEG Range
Min: 0.88   Max: 2.12
Current: 2.1

0.88
2.12
Shiller P/E 84.50
CMG's Shiller P/E is ranked lower than
76% of the 136 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 28.37 vs. CMG: 84.50 )
CMG' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Range
Min: 49.9   Max: 106.12
Current: 84.5

49.9
106.12

Valuation & Return

vs
industry
vs
history
Price/Net Cash 159.70
CMG's Price/Net Cash is ranked lower than
92% of the 52 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 12.40 vs. CMG: 159.70 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Net Cash Range
Min: 79.17   Max: 432.56
Current: 159.7

79.17
432.56
Price/Net Current Asset Value 127.00
CMG's Price/Net Current Asset Value is ranked lower than
84% of the 64 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 11.80 vs. CMG: 127.00 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Net Current Asset Value Range
Min: 52.78   Max: 196.09
Current: 127

52.78
196.09
Price/Tangible Book 11.30
CMG's Price/Tangible Book is ranked lower than
82% of the 251 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 2.80 vs. CMG: 11.30 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Tangible Book Range
Min: 3.32   Max: 10.87
Current: 11.3

3.32
10.87
Price/DCF (Projected) 4.20
CMG's Price/DCF (Projected) is ranked lower than
69% of the 134 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.80 vs. CMG: 4.20 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/DCF (Projected) Range
Min: 3.01   Max: 4.44
Current: 4.2

3.01
4.44
Price/Median PS Value 1.70
CMG's Price/Median PS Value is ranked lower than
70% of the 281 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.20 vs. CMG: 1.70 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Median PS Value Range
Min: 0.48   Max: 1.62
Current: 1.7

0.48
1.62
Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value 2.10
CMG's Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value is ranked lower than
51% of the 86 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.90 vs. CMG: 2.10 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value Range
Min: 1.36   Max: 2.04
Current: 2.1

1.36
2.04
Price/Graham Number 5.10
CMG's Price/Graham Number is ranked lower than
80% of the 219 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 2.10 vs. CMG: 5.10 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Graham Number Range
Min: 1.94   Max: 5.23
Current: 5.1

1.94
5.23
Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) 3.20
CMG's Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) is ranked lower than
60% of the 281 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 5.70 vs. CMG: 3.20 )
CMG' s 10-Year Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) Range
Min: 1.6   Max: 11.4
Current: 3.2

1.6
11.4
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) 28.41
CMG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) is ranked higher than
91% of the 179 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9.39 vs. CMG: 28.41 )
CMG' s 10-Year Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) Range
Min: 28.5   Max: 36.2
Current: 28.41

28.5
36.2

Business Description

Industry: Restaurants » Restaurants
Compare:BH, MCD, DIN, SBUX, IRG » details
Traded in other countries:C9F.Germany
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a Delaware corporation. It completed its initial public offering in January 2006. The Company develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in 35 states throughout the United States, the District of Columbia, Ontario, Canada and London England. As of December 31, 2011, it has approximately 1230 restaurants throughout the United States, the District of Columbia, Ontario, Canada and London England. Its restaurants serve a focused menu of tacos, burritos, salads and burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), made using fresh ingredients. All of the Company's food is prepared from scratch, with the majority prepared in its restaurants while some is prepared with the same ingredients in commissaries. 'Chipotle,' 'Chipotle Mexican Grill,' 'Unburritable,' 'Food With Integrity,' 'Fresh Is Not Enough, Anymore,' 'The Gourmet Restaurant Where You Eat With Your Hands,' and a number of related designs and logos are U.S. registered trademarks of Chipotle. It has filed trademark applications for a number of other marks in the U.S. In addition, U.S. registrations, it has registered trademarks for 'Chipotle' and a number of other marks in Canada, the European Union and various other countries, and have filed trademark applications for 'Chipotle Mexican Grill,' 'Chipotle' and a number of other marks in various countries as well. The Company competes with national and regional fast-casual, quick-service and casual dining restaurants. Its competition also includes a variety of locally owned restaurants and the deli sections and in-restaurant cafes of several grocery store chains. The Company is subject to federal, state and local regulations. Each of its restaurants is subject to state and local licensing and regulation by health, alcoholic beverage, sanitation, food and workplace safety and other agencies.

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