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GuruFocus Financial Strength Rank measures how strong a company’s financial situation is. It is based on these factors

1. The debt burden that the company has as measured by its Interest coverage (current year).
2. Debt to revenue ratio. The lower, the better
3. Altman Z-score.

A company ranks high with financial strength is likely to withstand any business slowdowns and recessions.

Financial Strength : 8/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Cash to Debt No Debt
CMG's Cash to Debt is ranked higher than
97% of the 315 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 0.68 vs. CMG: No Debt )
CMG' s 10-Year Cash to Debt Range
Min: 0.42   Max: No Debt
Current: No Debt

Equity to Asset 0.77
CMG's Equity to Asset is ranked higher than
91% of the 311 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 0.49 vs. CMG: 0.77 )
CMG' s 10-Year Equity to Asset Range
Min: 0.72   Max: 0.8
Current: 0.77

0.72
0.8
Interest Coverage No Debt
CMG's Interest Coverage is ranked higher than
93% of the 238 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 17.87 vs. CMG: No Debt )
CMG' s 10-Year Interest Coverage Range
Min: 31.97   Max: 9999.99
Current: No Debt

31.97
9999.99
F-Score: 7
Z-Score: 27.75
M-Score: -2.83
GuruFocus Profitability Rank ranks how profitable a company is and how likely the company’s business will stay that way. It is based on these factors:

1. Operating Margin
2. Trend of the Operating Margin (5-year average). The company with an uptrend profit margin has a higher rank.
••3. Consistency of the profitability
4. Piotroski F-Score
5. Predictability Rank•

The maximum rank is 10. A rank of 7 or higher means a higher profitability and may stay that way. A rank of 3 or lower indicates that the company has had trouble to make a profit.

Profitability Rank is not directly related to the Financial Strength Rank. But if a company is consistently profitable, its financial strength will be stronger.

Profitability & Growth : 8/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Operating margin (%) 16.57
CMG's Operating margin (%) is ranked higher than
91% of the 311 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 6.58 vs. CMG: 16.57 )
CMG' s 10-Year Operating margin (%) Range
Min: -18.79   Max: 16.69
Current: 16.57

-18.79
16.69
Net-margin (%) 10.19
CMG's Net-margin (%) is ranked higher than
92% of the 311 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 3.94 vs. CMG: 10.19 )
CMG' s 10-Year Net-margin (%) Range
Min: -18.24   Max: 10.19
Current: 10.19

-18.24
10.19
ROE (%) 21.29
CMG's ROE (%) is ranked higher than
89% of the 304 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9.93 vs. CMG: 21.29 )
CMG' s 10-Year ROE (%) Range
Min: -19.4   Max: 22.31
Current: 21.29

-19.4
22.31
ROA (%) 16.30
CMG's ROA (%) is ranked higher than
97% of the 311 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 4.31 vs. CMG: 16.30 )
CMG' s 10-Year ROA (%) Range
Min: -16.39   Max: 16.66
Current: 16.3

-16.39
16.66
ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) 55.31
CMG's ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) is ranked higher than
92% of the 309 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 17.93 vs. CMG: 55.31 )
CMG' s 10-Year ROC (Joel Greenblatt) (%) Range
Min: 2.11   Max: 55.31
Current: 55.31

2.11
55.31
Revenue Growth (%) 21.10
CMG's Revenue Growth (%) is ranked higher than
97% of the 254 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 4.20 vs. CMG: 21.10 )
CMG' s 10-Year Revenue Growth (%) Range
Min: 19.1   Max: 32.3
Current: 21.1

19.1
32.3
EBITDA Growth (%) 21.20
CMG's EBITDA Growth (%) is ranked higher than
85% of the 212 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 5.80 vs. CMG: 21.20 )
CMG' s 10-Year EBITDA Growth (%) Range
Min: 21.2   Max: 63
Current: 21.2

21.2
63
EPS Growth (%) 22.90
CMG's EPS Growth (%) is ranked higher than
86% of the 171 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 7.70 vs. CMG: 22.90 )
CMG' s 10-Year EPS Growth (%) Range
Min: 18.2   Max: 107
Current: 22.9

18.2
107
» CMG's 10-Y Financials

Financials


Revenue & Net Income
Cash & Debt
Oprt. Cash Flow & Free Cash Flow

» Details

Guru Trades

Q3 2013

CMG Guru Trades in Q3 2013

Louis Moore Bacon 3,000 sh (New)
Jim Simons 186,700 sh (+168.25%)
Frank Sands 2,779,209 sh (-1.32%)
Pioneer Investments 126,077 sh (-13.88%)
Steven Cohen 29,617 sh (-90.76%)
» More
Q4 2013

CMG Guru Trades in Q4 2013

Jeremy Grantham 6,230 sh (New)
Bill Frels 1,030 sh (New)
Steven Cohen 76,050 sh (+156.78%)
Jim Simons 271,200 sh (+45.26%)
Louis Moore Bacon Sold Out
Frank Sands 2,324,080 sh (-16.38%)
Pioneer Investments 48,954 sh (-61.17%)
» More
Q1 2014

CMG Guru Trades in Q1 2014

RS Investment Management 8,627 sh (New)
Caxton Associates 17,500 sh (New)
Steven Cohen 80,048 sh (+5.26%)
Frank Sands 2,340,997 sh (+0.73%)
Caxton Associates 10,000 sh (unchged)
Bill Frels Sold Out
Jim Simons 169,300 sh (-37.57%)
Pioneer Investments 11,237 sh (-77.05%)
Jeremy Grantham 1,330 sh (-78.65%)
» More
Q2 2014

CMG Guru Trades in Q2 2014

Louis Moore Bacon 20,000 sh (New)
Frank Sands 2,345,502 sh (+0.19%)
Steven Cohen 19,700 sh (unchged)
Caxton Associates Sold Out
Pioneer Investments 10,721 sh (-4.59%)
RS Investment Management 7,114 sh (-17.54%)
Jim Simons 113,800 sh (-32.78%)
Jeremy Grantham 530 sh (-60.15%)
» More
» Details

Insider Trades

Latest Guru Trades with CMG

(List those with share number changes of more than 20%, or impact to portfolio more than 0.1%)

GuruDate Trades Impact to Portfolio Price Range * (?) Current Price Change from Average Current Shares
Frank Sands 2013-12-31 Reduce -16.38%0.54%$426.5 - $546.97 $ 677.0333%2324080
Frank Sands 2013-03-31 Add 22.38%0.6%$280.94 - $329.24 $ 677.03117%2822469
Frank Sands 2012-12-31 New Buy2.7%$236.24 - $302.96 $ 677.03148%2306224
John Hussman 2011-09-30 Sold Out 1.2424%$279.37 - $336.14 $ 677.03114%0
Premium More recent guru trades are included for Premium Members only!!
» Interactive Charts

Peter Lynch Chart ( What is Peter Lynch Charts )

Guru Investment Theses on Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

David Einhorn Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill - Oct 16, 2013

But even in conventionally valued stocks where the fundamentals have largely gone our way, it has been hard to make money on shorts. In many cases we’ve lost money. Let’s consider Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). In recent years through the end of 2011, CMG and other upstarts in the fast-casual restaurant segment achieved substantial growth by offering consumers a higher quality menu than is typically found in fast-food chains. In contrast, Taco Bell (the largest Mexican fast-food chain) had lackluster and often negative growth. In early 2012, Taco Bell expanded its offerings to include new gourmet-style dishes as part of its Cantina Bell menu and introduced Doritos Locos Tacos. We believed that these innovations would enable Taco Bell to recapture market share from CMG. This is exactly what happened:

Notably, CMG’s comparable store sales benefit by about 2.5% per year because the company has a large number of new stores entering the comp base each year, which naturally ramp their volumes. Since Taco Bell has a mature store base, its comparable store sales don’t share that tailwind.

When we presented our thesis that Taco Bell would gain share, we received widespread ridicule from CMG’s customers in the investment community. But CMG also serves a younger demographic who are likely to be more sensitive to food prices than stock prices. It seems like Taco Bell has, in fact, gained share from this group.We surmise that this has led CMG to reconsider its strategy. In January 2013, the company strongly hinted that it would raise prices this year. Historically, CMG had been able to raise prices with impunity. However, with comparable store sales running in the low single digits, management decided to postpone the increase until 2014, when they plan to raise prices in conjunction with announcing that all their food is GMO-free. We believe that competition, particularly for college aged patrons, has reduced CMG’s ability to raise prices without losing customers and, based on its actions, it appears management agrees.

The result of all of this is that CMG is now expected to earn less in both 2013 and 2014 than consensus believed prior to Taco Bell’s innovations. Unfortunately for us, the market has rewarded CMG with an expanded P/E multiple, which is quite surprising in the face of falling comparable store sales, slowing and disappointing earnings growth, and a loss of pricing power.Such is the nature of the current market environment. Muy Loco!

From David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital third quarter 2013 letter.


Check out David Einhorn latest stock trades

David Einhorn Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill - Oct 24, 2012

At the recent Value Investing Congress, David updated our view of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), elaborated on our General Motors (GM) and Cigna (CI) theses, and disclosed our short position in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).

...

In presenting our short thesis on CMG (CMG), we noted that the stock trades at a premium multiple but faces significant headwinds including rising food costs, higher healthcare costs related to Obamacare, and competition from a resurgent Taco Bell. We conducted a consumer survey that provided evidence that Taco Bell's new Cantina Bell menu, priced at a substantial discount to CMG's average menu item, will draw customers away from CMG.

The protests from CMG's bullish supporters can be summarized as:

 ¡No Quiero Taco Bell!

 Have you ever actually tried the food!?!

 Have you seen the lines at CMG?

CMG and its bullish supporters insist that CMG has a completely different customer base than Taco Bell. However, our survey results show otherwise. We believe Taco Bell will pluck away some percentage of CMG's customers, which will cause CMG's same store sales to deteriorate. Given CMG's high valuation, we don't believe the market will be forgiving.

We surveyed 1,608 CMG customers. Of those, 25% never go to Taco Bell, and their median income (about $59,300) skews higher than the average CMG customer. Of the remaining 75%, almost one-third of them had ordered from the Cantina Bell menu within the first 50 days of launch. The preliminary results aren't favorable for CMG: Half preferred CMG, but the other half either preferred Cantina Bell or rated them equally. The latter group tends to be younger (median age: 26) and less well-to-do (median income: $36,600).

More importantly, we found that CMG's highest frequency customer—those who go a couple times a week or more—are much more likely to have tried Cantina Bell, more likely to prefer Cantina Bell to CMG, more likely to return to Taco Bell more often as a result of the Cantina Bell menu introduction, and twice as likely to cut down on trips to CMG as compared to the average CMG customer.

Our survey found that more than a third of CMG's customers are 18-24 years old (we didn't survey people younger than 18) and more than two-fifths of CMG's customers earn less than $40,000 per year. On the margin, this group is likely to show up at CMG a bit less often. The Partnerships closed out their CareFusion (CFN) position during the quarter. The company failed to achieve the earnings we hoped it could generate. Even so, the investment compounded at a double-digit rate over our three years of ownership. We wish all our "unsuccessful" investments did so well.

From Greenlight Capital's third quarter letter.


Check out David Einhorn latest stock trades

Top Ranked Articles about Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

David Einhorn Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill
But even in conventionally valued stocks where the fundamentals have largely gone our way, it has been hard to make money on shorts. In many cases we’ve lost money. Let’s consider Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). In recent years through the end of 2011, CMG and other upstarts in the fast-casual restaurant segment achieved substantial growth by offering consumers a higher quality menu than is typically found in fast-food chains. In contrast, Taco Bell (the largest Mexican fast-food chain) had lackluster and often negative growth. In early 2012, Taco Bell expanded its offerings to include new gourmet-style dishes as part of its Cantina Bell menu and introduced Doritos Locos Tacos. We believed that these innovations would enable Taco Bell to recapture market share from CMG. This is exactly what happened: Read more...
Wunderkind Eric Mindich - Eton Park's Six Sold Out
Founded by former Goldman Sachs youngest-ever partner Eric Mindich in 2004, Eton Park Capital Management is a multi-strategy hedge fund with offices in New York, London and Hong Kong. At present Eton Park has $19.4 billion in assets under management and Mindich has averaged a return of 21.88% over 12 months. Read more...

Ratios

vs
industry
vs
history
P/E(ttm) 59.70
CMG's P/E(ttm) is ranked lower than
54% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 29.90 vs. CMG: 59.70 )
CMG' s 10-Year P/E(ttm) Range
Min: 16.55   Max: 103.55
Current: 59.7

16.55
103.55
P/B 12.00
CMG's P/B is ranked lower than
73% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 3.17 vs. CMG: 12.00 )
CMG' s 10-Year P/B Range
Min: 2.05   Max: 12.13
Current: 12

2.05
12.13
P/S 5.90
CMG's P/S is ranked lower than
75% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.13 vs. CMG: 5.90 )
CMG' s 10-Year P/S Range
Min: 1.03   Max: 5.93
Current: 5.9

1.03
5.93
PFCF 53.40
CMG's PFCF is ranked higher than
65% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9999.00 vs. CMG: 53.40 )
CMG' s 10-Year PFCF Range
Min: 18.93   Max: 1238
Current: 53.4

18.93
1238
EV-to-EBIT 34.78
CMG's EV-to-EBIT is ranked higher than
55% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 19.66 vs. CMG: 34.78 )
CMG' s 10-Year EV-to-EBIT Range
Min: 8.8   Max: 64.9
Current: 34.78

8.8
64.9
PEG 2.45
CMG's PEG is ranked higher than
87% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9999.00 vs. CMG: 2.45 )
CMG' s 10-Year PEG Range
Min: 0.88   Max: 2.5
Current: 2.45

0.88
2.5
Shiller P/E 90.50
CMG's Shiller P/E is ranked higher than
64% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9999.00 vs. CMG: 90.50 )
CMG' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Range
Min: 49.69   Max: 105.36
Current: 90.5

49.69
105.36
Current Ratio 3.69
CMG's Current Ratio is ranked higher than
96% of the 242 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.09 vs. CMG: 3.69 )
CMG' s 10-Year Current Ratio Range
Min: 0.38   Max: 4.43
Current: 3.69

0.38
4.43
Quick Ratio 3.63
CMG's Quick Ratio is ranked higher than
96% of the 242 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 0.92 vs. CMG: 3.63 )
CMG' s 10-Year Quick Ratio Range
Min: 0.31   Max: 4.35
Current: 3.63

0.31
4.35

Valuation & Return

vs
industry
vs
history
Price/Net Cash 75.10
CMG's Price/Net Cash is ranked higher than
90% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9999.00 vs. CMG: 75.10 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Net Cash Range
Min: 42.09   Max: 9705
Current: 75.1

42.09
9705
Price/Net Current Asset Value 69.40
CMG's Price/Net Current Asset Value is ranked higher than
89% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9999.00 vs. CMG: 69.40 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Net Current Asset Value Range
Min: 38.21   Max: 334.66
Current: 69.4

38.21
334.66
Price/Tangible Book 12.20
CMG's Price/Tangible Book is ranked higher than
50% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 4.96 vs. CMG: 12.20 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Tangible Book Range
Min: 3   Max: 11.54
Current: 12.2

3
11.54
Price/DCF (Projected) 4.40
CMG's Price/DCF (Projected) is ranked higher than
72% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 5.90 vs. CMG: 4.40 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/DCF (Projected) Range
Min: 3.01   Max: 6.86
Current: 4.4

3.01
6.86
Price/Median PS Value 1.80
CMG's Price/Median PS Value is ranked lower than
52% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.32 vs. CMG: 1.80 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Median PS Value Range
Min: 0.43   Max: 1.66
Current: 1.8

0.43
1.66
Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value 2.50
CMG's Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value is ranked higher than
87% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9999.00 vs. CMG: 2.50 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Peter Lynch Fair Value Range
Min: 1.36   Max: 2.3
Current: 2.5

1.36
2.3
Price/Graham Number 5.60
CMG's Price/Graham Number is ranked higher than
61% of the 327 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 4.04 vs. CMG: 5.60 )
CMG' s 10-Year Price/Graham Number Range
Min: 1.76   Max: 5.42
Current: 5.6

1.76
5.42
Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) 2.90
CMG's Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) is ranked lower than
56% of the 296 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 5.80 vs. CMG: 2.90 )
CMG' s 10-Year Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) Range
Min: 1.5   Max: 11.4
Current: 2.9

1.5
11.4
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) 24.95
CMG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) is ranked higher than
90% of the 222 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 9.75 vs. CMG: 24.95 )
CMG' s 10-Year Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) Range
Min: 25.1   Max: 36.6
Current: 24.95

25.1
36.6

Business Description

Industry: Restaurants » Restaurants
Compare:BH, MCD, DIN, SBUX, IRG » details
Traded in other countries:C9F.Germany
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a Delaware corporation. It completed its initial public offering in January 2006. The Company develops and operates fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants in 35 states throughout the United States, the District of Columbia, Ontario, Canada and London England. As of December 31, 2011, it has approximately 1230 restaurants throughout the United States, the District of Columbia, Ontario, Canada and London England. Its restaurants serve a focused menu of tacos, burritos, salads and burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), made using fresh ingredients. All of the Company's food is prepared from scratch, with the majority prepared in its restaurants while some is prepared with the same ingredients in commissaries. 'Chipotle,' 'Chipotle Mexican Grill,' 'Unburritable,' 'Food With Integrity,' 'Fresh Is Not Enough, Anymore,' 'The Gourmet Restaurant Where You Eat With Your Hands,' and a number of related designs and logos are U.S. registered trademarks of Chipotle. It has filed trademark applications for a number of other marks in the U.S. In addition, U.S. registrations, it has registered trademarks for 'Chipotle' and a number of other marks in Canada, the European Union and various other countries, and have filed trademark applications for 'Chipotle Mexican Grill,' 'Chipotle' and a number of other marks in various countries as well. The Company competes with national and regional fast-casual, quick-service and casual dining restaurants. Its competition also includes a variety of locally owned restaurants and the deli sections and in-restaurant cafes of several grocery store chains. The Company is subject to federal, state and local regulations. Each of its restaurants is subject to state and local licensing and regulation by health, alcoholic beverage, sanitation, food and workplace safety and other agencies.
» More Articles for CMG

Headlines

Articles On GuruFocus.com
Investors Should Consider Chipotle Mexican Grill for Long-Term Gains Aug 26 2014 
Should You Consider This Restaurant Stock for the Long Run? Aug 21 2014 
Mc Donald’s First Step to a Turnaround Aug 09 2014 
Why Chipotle Mexican Grill Is an Interesting Buy Aug 08 2014 
Should You Buy Panera Bread's Turnaround? Jul 27 2014 
Chipotle May Be a Buy Now Jul 25 2014 
This Restaurant Looks Like a Good Value Investment Jul 22 2014 
Chipotle Is a Buying Opportunity That Investors Should Not Miss Jun 30 2014 
Chipotle and Yum! Brands Are Solid Long-Term Investments Jun 25 2014 
Why Buying Chipotle Looks Like a Mistake May 26 2014 

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Leerosenthal
ReplyLeerosenthal - 3 months ago
Alot of growth ahead, much of it organic.

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