Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis

Market Cap	49.14 B	P/E(ttm)	50.10
Enterprise Value	106.05 B	P/B	0.80

Financial Strength : 4/10

		vs industry	vs history
Cash to Debt	0.247	MS's Cash to Debt is ranked lower than 76% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 2100.97 vs. MS: 0.247 )	MS' s 10-Year Cash to Debt Range Min: 0.05 Max: 0.4 Current: 0.25 0.05 0.4
Equity to Asset	0.066	MS's Equity to Asset is ranked lower than 85% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 0.24 vs. MS: 0.066 )	MS' s 10-Year Equity to Asset Range Min: 0.03 Max: 0.07 Current: 0.07 0.03 0.07
Interest Coverage	2.6	MS's Interest Coverage is ranked lower than 58% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 10000.00 vs. MS: 2.6 )	MS' s 10-Year Interest Coverage Range Min: 3 Max: No Debt Current: 2.6

F-Score: 5
Z-Score: 0.15

Profitability & Growth : 6/10

		vs industry	vs history
Operating margin (%)	2.00	MS's Operating margin (%) is ranked lower than 82% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 16.70 vs. MS: 2.00 )	MS' s 10-Year Operating margin (%) Range Min: 2 Max: 34.3 Current: 2 2 34.3
Net-margin (%)	0.3	MS's Net-margin (%) is ranked lower than 82% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 9.55 vs. MS: 0.3 )	MS' s 10-Year Net-margin (%) Range Min: 0.3 Max: 21.6 Current: 0.3 0.3 21.6
ROE (%)	0.1	MS's ROE (%) is ranked lower than 80% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 4.60 vs. MS: 0.1 )	MS' s 10-Year ROE (%) Range Min: 0.1 Max: 28.3 Current: 0.1 0.1 28.3
Revenue Growth (%)	-8.8	MS's Revenue Growth (%) is ranked higher than 64% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 0.90 vs. MS: -8.8 )	MS' s 10-Year Revenue Growth (%) Range Min: -12 Max: 13 Current: -8.8 -12 13
EBITDA Growth (%)	-11.3	MS's EBITDA Growth (%) is ranked higher than 91% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: -1.85 vs. MS: -11.3 )	MS' s 10-Year EBITDA Growth (%) Range Min: -36.8 Max: 18.7 Current: -11.3 -36.8 18.7
EPS Growth (%)	-59.9	MS's EPS Growth (%) is ranked higher than 71% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: -2.95 vs. MS: -59.9 )	MS' s 10-Year EPS Growth (%) Range Min: -59.9 Max: 19.6 Current: -59.9 -59.9 19.6

» MS's 10-Y Financials

Financials

Revenue & Net Income

Equity & Asset

Oprt. Cash Flow & Free Cash Flow

» Details

Guru Trades

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

» Details

Insider Trades

Latest Guru Trades with MS

Select Gurus | Default List of Gurus | All Investors | Mutual Fund Gurus | Hedge Fund Gurus

Guru	Date	Trades	Impact to Portfolio	Price Range * (?)	Current Price	Change from Average	Current Shares
Daniel Loeb	2013-03-31	Sold Out	2.7%	$19.12 - $24.32	$ 25.12	13%	0
George Soros	2013-03-31	Sold Out	0.95%	$19.12 - $24.32	$ 25.12	13%	0
Ray Dalio	2013-03-31	Add 44.07%	0.02%	$19.12 - $24.32	$ 25.12	13%	347855
Richard Perry	2012-12-31	Sold Out	3.2%	$16.09 - $19.27	$ 25.12	44%	0
Daniel Loeb	2012-12-31	New Buy	2.7%	$16.09 - $19.27	$ 25.12	44%	7750000
George Soros	2012-12-31	New Buy	0.95%	$16.09 - $19.27	$ 25.12	44%	4144200
Ray Dalio	2012-12-31	New Buy	0.05%	$16.09 - $19.27	$ 25.12	44%	241455
John Burbank	2012-09-30	Sold Out	0.01%	$12.62 - $18.25	$ 25.12	69%	0
Joel Greenblatt	2012-09-30	Sold Out	0.01%	$12.62 - $18.25	$ 25.12	69%	0
Richard Perry	2012-06-30	Add 18429.4%	3.18%	$12.57 - $19.63	$ 25.12	64%	5355000
John Keeley	2012-06-30	Sold Out	0.03%	$12.57 - $19.63	$ 25.12	64%	0
Joel Greenblatt	2012-06-30	New Buy	0.01%	$12.57 - $19.63	$ 25.12	64%	12026
John Burbank	2012-06-30	New Buy	0.01%	$12.57 - $19.63	$ 25.12	64%	11317

More recent guru trades are included for Premium Members only!!

Guru Investment Theses on Morgan Stanley

Daniel Comments on Morgan Stanley - Apr 04, 2013

During the Fourth Quarter, we initiated a position in Morgan Stanley (MS), which we believe is in the early innings of a turnaround. The bank’s investment banking advisory and equity sales and trading businesses – which we know well from our perspectives as both investors and long-time satisfied clients – have consistently won top three market shares and are impressively positioned. Although MS has historically failed to capitalize on its strengths, its leadership currently is focused on growing its good businesses while consolidating and successfully fixing its previously troubled Wealth Management business.In 2013, we expect Morgan Stanley to tackle its other weak business, Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities (FICC) sales and trading. Morgan Stanley’s stock currently trades at a 20% discount to tangible book (down from a 35% discount when we acquired our stake at an average cost of $16.77 per share), and we view MS at these prices as a chance to buy a free call option on a promising restructuring.

In Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley has approached the turnaround with focus and results have been encouraging. The underlying earnings power of the combined MorganStanley Smith Barney business can be seen in the pre-tax margin line: pre-tax margins in Wealth Management have risen from 6% in 2009 to 13% in Q3 2012, and look on track to meet or exceed management’s mid-teens target for 2013. Morgan Stanley has a tougherroad ahead in dealing with its FICC businesses, which are limping along with a still-bloatedcost structure and anemic returns due to regulatory changes stemming from the GlobalFinancial Crisis. Nearly two thirds of the company’s Risk Weighted Assets on a fully loadedBasel IIIfourth quarter commentary.

Check out Daniel Loeb latest stock trades

Daniel Loeb Comments on Morgan Stanley - Jan 09, 2013

New Equity Position: Morgan Stanley
During the Fourth Quarter, we initiated a position in Morgan Stanley (MS), which we believe is in the early innings of a turnaround. The bank’s investment banking advisory and equity sales and trading businesses – which we know well from our perspectives as both investors and long-time satisfied clients – have consistently won top three market shares and are impressively positioned. Although MS has historically failed to capitalize on its strengths, its leadership currently is focused on growing its good businesses while consolidating and successfully fixing its previously troubled Wealth Management business. In 2013, we expect Morgan Stanley to tackle its other weak business, Fixed Income,Currency, and Commodities (FICC) sales and trading. Morgan Stanley’s stock currently trades at a 20% discount to tangible book (down from a 35% discount when we acquired our stake at an average cost of $16.77 per share), and we view MS at these prices as a chance to buy a free call option on a promising restructuring.

In Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley has approached the turnaround with focus and results have been encouraging. The underlying earnings power of the combined Morgan Stanley Smith Barney business can be seen in the pre-tax margin line: pre-tax margins in Wealth Management have risen from 6% in 2009 to 13% in Q3 2012, and look on track to meet or exceed management’s mid-teens target for 2013. Morgan Stanley has a tougher road ahead in dealing with its FICC businesses, which are limping along with a still-bloated cost structure and anemic returns due to regulatory changes stemming from the Global Financial Crisis. Nearly two thirds of the company’s Risk Weighted Assets on a fully loaded Basel III basis support the FICC businesses, which combined to generate roughly 25% of revenues1 in 2012. In Q4 2012, two of Morgan Stanley’s peers, UBS and Citi, took decisive action to restructure businesses irreparably harmed by regulatory changes. While we appreciate that Morgan Stanley finds itself in somewhat different circumstances, we still expect it to follow its peers’ lead and come up with a bold fix for the struggling FICC businesses early in 2013.

If we did not believe Morgan Stanley’s management was up to these important tasks, we would not own such a significant position. As they look to cut costs, we believe it is critical to set the right tone at the Board level. We were surprised to learn that in 2011, Morgan Stanley paid its average Director $357k, or 26% more than Citigroup’s average Director ($283k) and 42% more than JPMorgan’s average Director ($251k), although Morgan Stanley is a substantially smaller and simpler bank. One of MS’s directors is familiar to us from previous corporate governance battles we have fought against moribund Boards not up to the job of turning around great institutions. We hope Morgan Stanley will show that its reinvention begins at the top, and set an example for the company by quickly revising its board practices and considering an upgrade of the composition of its board of directors to reflect best principles of corporate governance.

Finally, our enthusiasm about MS’s turnaround benefits from our generally constructive macro views. We expect CEO confidence to rise and global corporate activity levels to increase markedly in 2013. Morgan Stanley, with its sterling reputation, talent pool, and record in execution in investment banking advisory and capital markets, is uniquely positioned to benefit from this improvement. Assuming Wealth Management pre-tax margins improve to 20% by 2014, Morgan Stanley’s earnings profile will shift toward a 50/50 split between cyclical, capital intensive capital markets businesses and a stable, capital-light Wealth Management business. This should lead to multiple expansion towards 12-13x P/E on projected earnings of approximately $3 per share driven by the Wealth Management margin improvement, FICC restructuring initiatives, and a stronger corporate activity environment. The combination of these factors suggests Morgan Stanley shares should nearly double from the recent $20 level.

From Daniel Loeb's Third Point Fourth Quarter Letter.

Check out Daniel Loeb latest stock trades

		vs industry	vs history
P/E(ttm)	50.10	MS's P/E(ttm) is ranked higher than 65% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 18.27 vs. MS: 50.10 )	MS' s 10-Year P/E(ttm) Range Min: 7.03 Max: 375.33 Current: 50.1 7.03 375.33
P/B	0.80	MS's P/B is ranked higher than 79% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 1.30 vs. MS: 0.80 )	MS' s 10-Year P/B Range Min: 0.23 Max: 5.49 Current: 0.8 0.23 5.49
P/S	1.78	MS's P/S is ranked higher than 59% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 2.10 vs. MS: 1.78 )	MS' s 10-Year P/S Range Min: 0.44 Max: 3.76 Current: 1.78 0.44 3.76
PFCF	2.40	MS's PFCF is ranked higher than 93% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 8.17 vs. MS: 2.40 )	MS' s 10-Year PFCF Range Min: 0.16 Max: 199.63 Current: 2.4 0.16 199.63
EV-to-EBIT	55.6	MS's EV-to-EBIT is ranked higher than 82% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 14.81 vs. MS: 55.6 )	MS' s 10-Year EV-to-EBIT Range Min: 13 Max: 1883.3 Current: 55.6 13 1883.3
Shiller P/E	29.6	MS's Shiller P/E is ranked higher than 90% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 9.40 vs. MS: 29.6 )	MS' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Range Min: 1.98 Max: 29.64 Current: 29.6 1.98 29.64

		vs industry	vs history
Dividend Yield	0.80	MS's Dividend Yield is ranked lower than 57% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 2.06 vs. MS: 0.80 )	MS' s 10-Year Dividend Yield Range Min: 0.63 Max: 11.16 Current: 0.8 0.63 11.16
Dividend Payout	0.3623	MS's Dividend Payout is ranked lower than 78% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 0.68 vs. MS: 0.3623 )	MS' s 10-Year Dividend Payout Range Min: 0.06 Max: 5.64 Current: 0.36 0.06 5.64
Dividend growth (3y)	-16.9	MS's Dividend growth (3y) is ranked higher than 84% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: -5.90 vs. MS: -16.9 )	MS' s 10-Year Dividend growth (3y) Range Min: -34.4 Max: 17.7 Current: -16.9 -34.4 17.7
Yield on cost (5-Year)	0.10	MS's Yield on cost (5-Year) is ranked lower than 68% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 2.34 vs. MS: 0.10 )	MS' s 10-Year Yield on cost (5-Year) Range Min: 0.08 Max: 1.43 Current: 0.1 0.08 1.43
Share Buyback Rate	-12.8	MS's Share Buyback Rate is ranked lower than 57% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: -0.40 vs. MS: -12.8 )	MS' s 10-Year Share Buyback Rate Range Min: 2.4 Max: -12.8 Current: -12.8

		vs industry	vs history
Price/Net Current Asset Value	1	MS's Price/Net Current Asset Value is ranked higher than 64% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 6.50 vs. MS: 1 )	MS' s 10-Year Price/Net Current Asset Value Range Min: 0.7 Max: 11.6 Current: 1 0.7 11.6
Price/Tangible Book	1	MS's Price/Tangible Book is ranked higher than 52% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 1.10 vs. MS: 1 )	MS' s 10-Year Price/Tangible Book Range Min: 0.3 Max: 3.1 Current: 1 0.3 3.1
Price/DCF (Projected)	0.2	MS's Price/DCF (Projected) is ranked higher than 73% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 0.80 vs. MS: 0.2 )	MS' s 10-Year Price/DCF (Projected) Range Min: 0.2 Max: 1 Current: 0.2 0.2 1
Price/Median PS Value	1	MS's Price/Median PS Value is ranked higher than 56% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 1.00 vs. MS: 1 )	MS' s 10-Year Price/Median PS Value Range Min: 0.3 Max: 1.2 Current: 1 0.3 1.2
Price/Graham Number	1.6	MS's Price/Graham Number is ranked lower than 80% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 0.90 vs. MS: 1.6 )	MS' s 10-Year Price/Graham Number Range Min: 0.3 Max: 1.3 Current: 1.6 0.3 1.3
Earnings Yield (Greenblatt)	1.80	MS's Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) is ranked lower than 77% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 9.05 vs. MS: 1.80 )	MS' s 10-Year Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) Range Min: 0.1 Max: 7.7 Current: 1.8 0.1 7.7
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman)	28.48	MS's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) is ranked higher than 95% of the 176 Companies in the Global Capital Markets industry. ( Industry Median: 7.98 vs. MS: 28.48 )	MS' s 10-Year Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) Range Min: -262.5 Max: 62.9 Current: 28.48 -262.5 62.9

Industry:	Capital Markets
Compare:	PJC, SIEB, GHL, GS, SF
Traded in other countries:	DWD.Germany

	Worst	Neutral			Best
Within your circle of competence?
Macro economic environment favorable?
High quality business?
Enough margin of safety with stocks?
Gurus are buying?
Insiders are buying?
Management capable and shareholder friendly?
Catalyst for stock price to appreciate?
Your level of confidence with the research?

FocusBar

Home

Premium Membership

Value Screens

Model Portfolios

Guru Stocks

Market Valuation

By Country

Articles

Submit Articles

Financial Strength : 4/10

Profitability & Growth : 6/10

Financials

Guru Trades

MS Guru Trades in Q2 2012

MS Guru Trades in Q3 2012

MS Guru Trades in Q4 2012

MS Guru Trades in Q1 2013

Insider Trades

Latest Guru Trades with MS

Guru Investment Theses on Morgan Stanley

Daniel Comments on Morgan Stanley - Apr 04, 2013

Daniel Loeb Comments on Morgan Stanley - Jan 09, 2013

Top Ranked Articles about Morgan Stanley

Ratios

Dividend & Buy Back

Valuation & Return

Business Description

Headlines

Personalized Checklist