AmTrust Financial Services (AmTrust Financial Services) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

AmTrust Financial Services Annual Data
	Trend	Dec08	Dec09	Dec10	Dec11	Dec12	Dec13	Dec14	Dec15	Dec16	Dec17
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %							33.66	32.00	34.03	37.90	-

AmTrust Financial Services Quarterly Data
	Dec13	Mar14	Jun14	Sep14	Dec14	Mar15	Jun15	Sep15	Dec15	Mar16	Jun16	Sep16	Dec16	Mar17	Jun17	Sep17	Dec17	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %																31.90	-	-	-	-

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, AmTrust Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, AmTrust Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where AmTrust Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.

AmTrust Financial Services Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

AmTrust Financial Services's Forward Rate of Return of Sep. 2018 is

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

AmTrust Financial Services  (NAS:AFSI) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.

Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.

AmTrust Financial Services Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

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AmTrust Financial Services (AmTrust Financial Services) Business Description