Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Books-A-Million's forward rate of return for was -16.01%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Books-A-Million's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
BAMM's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is not ranked *
in the Retail - Cyclical industry.
Industry Median: 14.42 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % only.
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Books-A-Million Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
The historical data trend for Books-A-Million's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* Premium members only.
Books-A-Million Annual Data
Trend
Jan06
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
21.78
30.13
23.36
7.24
-3.57
Books-A-Million Quarterly Data
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
-43.28
-3.57
-20.33
-9.72
-16.01
Competitive Comparison
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Books-A-Million's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Books-A-Million Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Books-A-Million's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Books-A-Million's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Books-A-Million Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
Books-A-Million's Forward Rate of Return of Oct. 2015 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
-0.48590476
/
3.17
+
-0.0068
=
-16.01 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Books-A-Million (NAS:BAMM) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Books-A-Million Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Books-A-Million's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Books-A-Million (Books-A-Million) Business Description
Books-A-Million Inc was founded in 1917, originally incorporated under the laws of the State of Alabama in 1964 and reincorporated in Delaware in September 1992. The Company is a book retailer located in the eastern United States and operates both superstores and traditional bookstores. The Company operates both superstores and traditional bookstores. The first Superstore was opened in 1987 and operates under the names Books-A-Million and Books and Co. and 2nd & Charles. Traditional bookstores are smaller stores operated under the names Bookland, Books-A-Million and BAM. All store formats generally offer a selection of sellers and other hardcover and paperback books, magazines, toys, games, electronics and gifts. In addition to these retail store formats, it offers its products over the internet at Booksamillion.com. Its retail operations also include the operation of Yogurt Mountain Holding, LLC, a retailer and franchisor of self-serve frozen yogurt stores. It also develops and manages commercial real estate investments through its subsidiary, Preferred Growth Properties, LLC. The Company operates in three reportable operating segments: Retail trade; Electronic commerce trade; and Real estate development and management. In the retail trade segment, it is engaged in the retail sale of books, magazines and general merchandise, including gifts, cards, games, toys, collectibles, music, DVDs, electronic devices and accessories in its retail stores. In the electronic commerce trade segment, it is engaged in the retail sale of books and general merchandise over the internet. The real estate development and management segment is managed separately from the retail trade and electronic commerce trade segments, with a focus on deriving revenues through developing and leasing commercial retail real estate for purposes of earning rental income. The Company promotes its bookstores through the use of traditional direct mail, e-mail and online advertising, as well as point-of-sale materials posted and distributed in its stores. The retail book business is competitive. The Company faces direct competition from other superstores, such as Barnes & Noble, and it also faces competition from mass merchandisers, such as Wal-Mart and Costco, and online retailers, such as Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble and Wal-Mart. Its bookstores also compete with specialty retail stores that offer books in particular subject areas, independent single store operators, variety discounters, drugstores, warehouse clubs, mail order clubs and other retailers offering books. In addition, its bookstores face additional competition from the market for electronic books and may face competition from other categories of retailers entering the retail book market. The Company is subject to general business regulations and laws, as well as regulations and laws specifically governing the Internet and e-commerce.
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