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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
17.57 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $52.52. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Jun. 2016 was $2.99. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 17.57.

HOG' s Shiller P/E Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.05   Max: 37.09
Current: 17.54

3.05
37.09

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 37.09. The lowest was 3.05. And the median was 16.54.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratio is ranked higher than
72% of the 198 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 28.68 vs. HOG: 17.54 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Jun. 2016 was $1.550. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our E10, which is $2.99 for the trailing ten years ended in Jun. 2016.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=52.52/2.99
=17.57

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec14 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Jun. 2016 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Jun. 2016 (Change)*Current CPI (Jun. 2016)
=1.55/241.038*241.038
=1.550

Current CPI (Jun. 2016) = 241.038.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201403201406201409201412201503201506201509201512201603201606
per share eps 1.2101.6200.6900.3601.2701.4400.6900.2801.3601.550
CPI 236.293238.343238.031234.812236.119238.638237.945236.525238.132241.038
Adj_EPS 1.2341.6380.6990.3701.2961.4540.6990.2851.3771.550
201109201112201203201206201209201212201303201306201309201312
per share eps 0.7800.4600.7401.0700.5900.3200.9901.2100.7300.350
CPI 226.889225.672229.392229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504234.149233.049
Adj_EPS 0.8290.4910.7781.1240.6150.3361.0251.2490.7510.362
200903200906200909200912201003201006201009201012201103201106
per share eps 0.5000.0800.110-0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.2000.5100.810
CPI 212.709215.693215.969215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179223.467225.722
Adj_EPS 0.5670.0890.123-1.0490.1550.3320.419-0.2200.5500.865
200609200612200703200706200709200712200803200806200809200812
per share eps 1.2000.9700.7401.1401.0700.7900.7900.9500.7100.340
CPI 202.900201.800205.352208.352208.490210.036213.528218.815218.783210.228
Adj_EPS 1.4261.1590.8691.3191.2370.9070.8921.0460.7820.390

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
ShillerPE 33.5018.696.339.6213.5314.3517.4924.2222.7315.88

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16
ShillerPE 22.8023.2219.5222.7320.7118.7618.5615.8917.5915.13
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