Switch to:
GuruFocus has detected 1 Warning Sign with Harley-Davidson Inc $HOG.
More than 500,000 people have already joined GuruFocus to track the stocks they follow and exchange investment ideas.
Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
19.64 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $57.55. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2016 was $2.93. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 19.64.

HOG' s Shiller P/E Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 13.21   Max: 21.68
Current: 19.64

13.21
21.68

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 21.68. The lowest was 13.21. And the median was 17.01.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratio is ranked higher than
71% of the 204 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 30.35 vs. HOG: 19.64 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2016 was $0.640. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our E10, which is $2.93 for the trailing ten years ended in Sep. 2016.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=57.55/2.93
=19.64

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec15 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2016 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Sep. 2016 (Change)*Current CPI (Sep. 2016)
=0.64/241.428*241.428
=0.640

Current CPI (Sep. 2016) = 241.428.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201409201412201503201506201509201512201603201606201609201612
per share eps 0.6900.3601.2701.4400.6900.2801.3601.5500.6400.270
CPI 238.031234.812236.119238.638237.945236.525238.132241.018241.428241.432
Adj_EPS 0.7000.3701.2991.4570.7000.2861.3791.5530.6400.270
201203201206201209201212201303201306201309201312201403201406
per share eps 0.7401.0700.5900.3200.9901.2100.7300.3501.2101.620
CPI 229.392229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504234.149233.049236.293238.343
Adj_EPS 0.7791.1260.6160.3361.0271.2510.7530.3631.2361.641
200909200912201003201006201009201012201103201106201109201112
per share eps 0.110-0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.2000.5100.8100.7800.460
CPI 215.969215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179223.467225.722226.889225.672
Adj_EPS 0.123-1.0510.1550.3320.420-0.2200.5510.8660.8300.492
200703200706200709200712200803200806200809200812200903200906
per share eps 0.7401.1401.0700.7900.7900.9500.7100.3400.5000.080
CPI 205.352208.352208.490210.036213.528218.815218.783210.228212.709215.693
Adj_EPS 0.8701.3211.2390.9080.8931.0480.7830.3900.5680.090

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16
ShillerPE 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0020.2821.69

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16
ShillerPE 0.000.000.0017.0219.4020.2813.2014.2016.7721.69
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)
FEEDBACK