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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
14.86 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $43.55. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2016 was $2.93. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 14.86.

HOG' s Shiller P/E Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.05   Max: 37.09
Current: 14.85

3.05
37.09

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 37.09. The lowest was 3.05. And the median was 16.66.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratio is ranked higher than
72% of the 194 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 25.43 vs. HOG: 14.85 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2016 was $1.360. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our E10, which is $2.93 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2016.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=43.55/2.93
=14.86

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec15 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2016 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Mar. 2016 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2016)
=1.36/238.132*238.132
=1.360

Current CPI (Mar. 2016) = 238.132.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201312201403201406201409201412201503201506201509201512201603
per share eps 0.3391.2101.6200.6900.3481.2701.4400.6900.2221.360
CPI 233.049236.293238.343238.031234.812236.119238.638237.945236.525238.132
Adj_EPS 0.3461.2191.6190.6900.3531.2811.4370.6910.2241.360
201106201109201112201203201206201209201212201303201306201309
per share eps 0.8100.7800.4560.7401.0700.5900.3120.9901.2100.730
CPI 225.722226.889225.672229.392229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504234.149
Adj_EPS 0.8550.8190.4810.7681.1100.6070.3241.0131.2340.742
200812200903200906200909200912201003201006201009201012201103
per share eps 0.3350.5000.0800.110-0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.2000.510
CPI 210.228212.709215.693215.969215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179223.467
Adj_EPS 0.3790.5600.0880.121-1.0370.1530.3280.414-0.2170.543
200606200609200612200703200706200709200712200803200806200809
per share eps 0.9101.2000.9700.7401.1401.0700.7780.7900.9500.710
CPI 202.900202.900201.800205.352208.352208.490210.036213.528218.815218.783
Adj_EPS 1.0681.4081.1450.8581.3031.2220.8820.8811.0340.773

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
ShillerPE 33.5418.726.349.6413.5514.2517.5324.2922.7915.97

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16
ShillerPE 24.2922.8523.2719.5722.7920.7618.8118.6115.9717.50
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