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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller PE Ratio
19.49 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $56.32. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2017 was $2.89. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 19.49.

HOG' s Shiller PE Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.05   Max: 37.09
Current: 19.5

3.05
37.09

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 37.09. The lowest was 3.05. And the median was 17.06.

HOG's Shiller PE Ratio is ranked higher than
69% of the 207 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 28.83 vs. HOG: 19.50 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2017 was $1.050. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our E10, which is $2.89 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2017.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=56.32/2.89
=19.49

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec16 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2017 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Mar. 2017 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2017)
=1.05/243.985*243.985
=1.050

Current CPI (Mar. 2017) = 243.985.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201412201503201506201509201512201603201606201609201612201703
per share eps 0.3601.2701.4400.6900.2801.3601.5500.6400.2801.050
CPI 234.812236.119238.638237.945236.525238.132241.018241.428241.432243.985
Adj_EPS 0.3741.3121.4720.7080.2891.3931.5690.6470.2831.050
201206201209201212201303201306201309201312201403201406201409
per share eps 1.0700.5900.3200.9901.2100.7300.3501.2101.6200.690
CPI 229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504234.149233.049236.293238.343238.031
Adj_EPS 1.1380.6220.3401.0381.2640.7610.3661.2491.6580.707
200912201003201006201009201012201103201106201109201112201203
per share eps -0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.2000.5100.8100.7800.4600.740
CPI 215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179223.467225.722226.889225.672229.392
Adj_EPS -1.0620.1570.3360.424-0.2230.5570.8760.8390.4970.787
200706200709200712200803200806200809200812200903200906200909
per share eps 1.1401.0700.7900.7900.9500.7100.3400.5000.0800.110
CPI 208.352208.490210.036213.528218.815218.783210.228212.709215.693215.969
Adj_EPS 1.3351.2520.9180.9031.0590.7920.3950.5740.0900.124

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16
ShillerPE 18.716.339.6313.4314.2517.3824.3022.8215.8120.33

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16Mar17
ShillerPE 22.8220.5918.6718.6515.8117.6715.0617.9520.3320.95
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