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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
20.37 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $59.69. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2016 was $2.93. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 20.37.

HOG' s Shiller P/E Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.05   Max: 34.87
Current: 20.32

3.05
34.87

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 34.87. The lowest was 3.05. And the median was 16.49.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratio is ranked higher than
66% of the 214 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 27.79 vs. HOG: 20.32 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2016 was $0.640. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our E10, which is $2.93 for the trailing ten years ended in Sep. 2016.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=59.69/2.93
=20.37

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec14 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2016 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Sep. 2016 (Change)*Current CPI (Sep. 2016)
=0.64/241.428*241.428
=0.640

Current CPI (Sep. 2016) = 241.428.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201406201409201412201503201506201509201512201603201606201609
per share eps 1.6200.6900.3601.2701.4400.6900.2801.3601.5500.640
CPI 238.343238.031234.812236.119238.638237.945236.525238.132241.018241.428
Adj_EPS 1.6410.7000.3701.2991.4570.7000.2861.3791.5530.640
201112201203201206201209201212201303201306201309201312201403
per share eps 0.4600.7401.0700.5900.3200.9901.2100.7300.3501.210
CPI 225.672229.392229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504234.149233.049236.293
Adj_EPS 0.4920.7791.1260.6160.3361.0271.2510.7530.3631.236
200906200909200912201003201006201009201012201103201106201109
per share eps 0.0800.110-0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.2000.5100.8100.780
CPI 215.693215.969215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179223.467225.722226.889
Adj_EPS 0.0900.123-1.0510.1550.3320.420-0.2200.5510.8660.830
200612200703200706200709200712200803200806200809200812200903
per share eps 0.9700.7401.1401.0700.7900.7900.9500.7100.3400.500
CPI 201.800205.352208.352208.490210.036213.528218.815218.783210.228212.709
Adj_EPS 1.1600.8701.3211.2390.9080.8931.0480.7830.3900.568

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
ShillerPE 33.5618.736.349.6413.4414.2617.3824.3022.8115.80

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16
ShillerPE 23.0819.5922.8120.5818.6518.6415.8017.6615.0517.94
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