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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
28.78 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $62.75. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2014 was $2.18. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 28.78.

HOG' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Ratio Range
Min: 2.44   Max: 36.88
Current: 28.8

2.44
36.88

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 36.88. The lowest was 2.44. And the median was 20.35.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratiois ranked higher than
77% of the 1427 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 43.67 vs. HOG: 28.80 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2014 was $0.683. Since most companies do not have as long as 10 years history, here we use 6 years to calculate. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 6 years together and divide 6 will get our E10, which is $2.18 for the trailing six years ended in Sep. 2014.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=62.75/2.18
=28.78

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec13 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2014 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Sep. 2014*CPI of Current
=0.69/238.031*235.51
=0.683

Since most companies do not have as long as 10 years history, GuruFocus uses 6 years to do the calculation.

Current CPI = 235.51.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201206201209201212201303201306201309201312201403201406201409
per share eps 1.0700.5900.3120.9901.2100.7300.3391.2101.6200.690
CPI 229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504234.149233.049236.293238.343238.031
Adj_EPS 1.0980.6000.3201.0021.2200.7340.3431.2061.6010.683
200912201003201006201009201012201103201106201109201112201203
per share eps -0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.2000.5100.8100.7800.4560.740
CPI 215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179223.467225.722226.889225.672229.392
Adj_EPS -1.0250.1520.3240.410-0.2150.5370.8450.8100.4760.760
200812200903200906200909
per share eps 0.3350.5000.0800.110
CPI 210.228212.709215.693215.969
Adj_EPS 0.3750.5540.0870.120

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 6 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
ShillerPE 32.2921.7924.6114.115.008.5213.6516.3122.9134.63

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14
ShillerPE 19.1118.5422.9124.4725.0730.4934.6331.8031.5627.24
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