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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
22.28 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $56.58. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Jun. 2015 was $2.54. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 22.28.

HOG' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Ratio Range
Min: 2.46   Max: 34.81
Current: 22.35

2.46
34.81

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 34.81. The lowest was 2.46. And the median was 20.28.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratiois ranked lower than
64% of the 594 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 16.33 vs. HOG: 22.35 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Jun. 2015 was $1.440. Since most companies do not have as long as 10 years history, here we use 6 years to calculate. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 6 years together and divide 6 will get our E10, which is $2.54 for the trailing six years ended in Jun. 2015.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=56.58/2.54
=22.28

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec14 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Jun. 2015 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Jun. 2015*CPI of Current
=1.44/238.638*238.662
=1.440

Since most companies do not have as long as 10 years history, GuruFocus uses 6 years to do the calculation.

Current CPI = 238.662.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201303201306201309201312201403201406201409201412201503201506
per share eps 0.9901.2100.7300.3391.2101.6200.6900.3481.2701.440
CPI 232.773233.504234.149233.049236.293238.343238.031234.812236.119238.638
Adj_EPS 1.0151.2370.7440.3471.2221.6220.6920.3541.2841.440
201009201012201103201106201109201112201203201206201209201212
per share eps 0.380-0.2000.5100.8100.7800.4560.7401.0700.5900.312
CPI 218.439219.179223.467225.722226.889225.672229.392229.478231.407229.601
Adj_EPS 0.415-0.2180.5450.8560.8200.4820.7701.1130.6080.324
200909200912201003201006
per share eps 0.110-0.9400.1400.300
CPI 215.969215.949217.631217.965
Adj_EPS 0.122-1.0390.1540.328

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 6 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
ShillerPE 21.9524.8014.105.008.5113.6316.3022.9034.6230.61

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15
ShillerPE 24.4725.0630.4834.6231.7931.5526.7130.6126.4922.17
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