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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
25.36 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $58.59. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2015 was $2.31. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 25.36.

HOG' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Ratio Range
Min: 2.44   Max: 34.78
Current: 25.57

2.44
34.78

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 34.78. The lowest was 2.44. And the median was 20.32.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratiois ranked lower than
65% of the 580 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 17.91 vs. HOG: 25.57 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2015 was $1.284. Since most companies do not have as long as 10 years history, here we use 6 years to calculate. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 6 years together and divide 6 will get our E10, which is $2.31 for the trailing six years ended in Mar. 2015.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=58.59/2.31
=25.36

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec14 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2015 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Mar. 2015*CPI of Current
=1.27/236.119*238.709
=1.284

Since most companies do not have as long as 10 years history, GuruFocus uses 6 years to do the calculation.

Current CPI = 238.709.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201212201303201306201309201312201403201406201409201412201503
per share eps 0.3120.9901.2100.7300.3391.2101.6200.6900.3481.270
CPI 229.601232.773233.504234.149233.049236.293238.343238.031234.812236.119
Adj_EPS 0.3241.0151.2370.7440.3471.2221.6220.6920.3541.284
201006201009201012201103201106201109201112201203201206201209
per share eps 0.3000.380-0.2000.5100.8100.7800.4560.7401.0700.590
CPI 217.965218.439219.179223.467225.722226.889225.672229.392229.478231.407
Adj_EPS 0.3290.415-0.2180.5450.8570.8210.4820.7701.1130.609
200906200909200912201003
per share eps 0.0800.110-0.9400.140
CPI 215.693215.969215.949217.631
Adj_EPS 0.0890.122-1.0390.154

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 6 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
ShillerPE 21.8224.6514.145.018.5413.6816.3522.9434.3130.65

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15
ShillerPE 22.9424.5025.1030.5034.3131.8231.5826.4830.6526.27
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