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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller PE Ratio
21.31 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $60.53. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Dec. 2016 was $2.84. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 21.31.

HOG' s Shiller PE Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.06   Max: 29.66
Current: 21.34

3.06
29.66

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 29.66. The lowest was 3.06. And the median was 16.49.

HOG's Shiller PE Ratio is ranked higher than
68% of the 207 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 29.26 vs. HOG: 21.34 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Dec. 2016 was $0.280. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our E10, which is $2.84 for the trailing ten years ended in Dec. 2016.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=60.53/2.84
=21.31

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec16 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Dec. 2016 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Dec. 2016 (Change)*Current CPI (Dec. 2016)
=0.28/241.432*241.432
=0.280

Current CPI (Dec. 2016) = 241.432.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201409201412201503201506201509201512201603201606201609201612
per share eps 0.6900.3601.2701.4400.6900.2801.3601.5500.6400.280
CPI 238.031234.812236.119238.638237.945236.525238.132241.018241.428241.432
Adj_EPS 0.7000.3701.2991.4570.7000.2861.3791.5530.6400.280
201203201206201209201212201303201306201309201312201403201406
per share eps 0.7401.0700.5900.3200.9901.2100.7300.3501.2101.620
CPI 229.392229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504234.149233.049236.293238.343
Adj_EPS 0.7791.1260.6160.3361.0271.2510.7530.3631.2361.641
200909200912201003201006201009201012201103201106201109201112
per share eps 0.110-0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.2000.5100.8100.7800.460
CPI 215.969215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179223.467225.722226.889225.672
Adj_EPS 0.123-1.0510.1550.3320.420-0.2200.5510.8660.8300.492
200703200706200709200712200803200806200809200812200903200906
per share eps 0.7401.1401.0700.7900.7900.9500.7100.3400.5000.080
CPI 205.352208.352208.490210.036213.528218.815218.783210.228212.709215.693
Adj_EPS 0.8701.3211.2390.9080.8931.0480.7840.3900.5680.090

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16
ShillerPE 18.756.359.6613.4614.2817.4124.3422.8515.8320.57

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16
ShillerPE 19.4422.8520.6218.6918.4915.8317.5315.0817.9820.57
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