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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
13.08 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $38.71. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2015 was $2.96. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 13.08.

HOG' s Shiller P/E Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.04   Max: 37.28
Current: 13.09

3.04
37.28

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 37.28. The lowest was 3.04. And the median was 17.02.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratio is ranked higher than
76% of the 263 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 22.57 vs. HOG: 13.09 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2015 was $0.690. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our E10, which is $2.96 for the trailing ten years ended in Sep. 2015.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=38.71/2.96
=13.08

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec14 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2015 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Sep. 2015 (Change)*Current CPI (Sep. 2015)
=0.69/237.945*237.945
=0.690

Current CPI (Sep. 2015) = 237.945.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201309201312201403201406201409201412201503201506201509201512
per share eps 0.7300.3501.2101.6200.6900.3601.2701.4400.6900.220
CPI 234.149233.049236.293238.343238.031234.812236.119238.638237.945236.525
Adj_EPS 0.7420.3571.2181.6170.6900.3651.2801.4360.6900.221
201103201106201109201112201203201206201209201212201303201306
per share eps 0.5100.8100.7800.4600.7401.0700.5900.3200.9901.210
CPI 223.467225.722226.889225.672229.392229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504
Adj_EPS 0.5430.8540.8180.4850.7681.1090.6070.3321.0121.233
200809200812200903200906200909200912201003201006201009201012
per share eps 0.7100.3400.5000.0800.110-0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.200
CPI 218.783210.228212.709215.693215.969215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179
Adj_EPS 0.7720.3850.5590.0880.121-1.0360.1530.3270.414-0.217
200603200606200609200612200703200706200709200712200803200806
per share eps 0.8600.9101.2000.9700.7401.1401.0700.7900.7900.950
CPI 199.800202.900202.900201.800205.352208.352208.490210.036213.528218.815
Adj_EPS 1.0241.0671.4071.1440.8571.3021.2210.8950.8801.033

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
ShillerPE 33.5718.726.349.6313.5514.3617.5024.2322.740.00

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15
ShillerPE 22.1624.2322.8023.2119.5222.7420.7218.7718.570.00
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