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Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG)
Shiller P/E Ratio
29.88 (As of Today)

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current share price is $64.85. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2014 was $2.17. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is 29.88.

HOG' s 10-Year Shiller P/E Ratio Range
Min: 2.45   Max: 36.75
Current: 29.9

2.45
36.75

During the past 13 years, Harley-Davidson Inc's highest Shiller P/E Ratio was 36.75. The lowest was 2.45. And the median was 20.34.

HOG's Shiller P/E Ratiois ranked higher than
78% of the 1442 Companies
in the Global Recreational Vehicles industry.

( Industry Median: 42.79 vs. HOG: 29.90 )

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2014 was $0.682. Since most companies do not have as long as 10 years history, here we use 6 years to calculate. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 6 years together and divide 6 will get our E10, which is $2.17 for the trailing six years ended in Sep. 2014.


Definition

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio for today is calculated as

Shiller P/E Ratio=Share Price/E10
=64.85/2.17
=29.88

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the fiscal year that ended in Dec13 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2014 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnigns per Share/CPI of Sep. 2014*CPI of Current
=0.69/238.031*235.189
=0.682

Since most companies do not have as long as 10 years history, GuruFocus uses 6 years to do the calculation.

Current CPI = 235.189.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

201206201209201212201303201306201309201312201403201406201409
per share eps 1.0700.5900.3120.9901.2100.7300.3391.2101.6200.690
CPI 229.478231.407229.601232.773233.504234.149233.049236.293238.343238.031
Adj_EPS 1.0970.6000.3201.0001.2190.7330.3421.2041.5990.682
200912201003201006201009201012201103201106201109201112201203
per share eps -0.9400.1400.3000.380-0.2000.5100.8100.7800.4560.740
CPI 215.949217.631217.965218.439219.179223.467225.722226.889225.672229.392
Adj_EPS -1.0240.1510.3240.409-0.2150.5370.8440.8090.4750.759
200812200903200906200909
per share eps 0.3350.5000.0800.110
CPI 210.228212.709215.693215.969
Adj_EPS 0.3750.5530.0870.120

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 6 will get our E10.


Explanation

Compared with the regular P/E ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller P/E smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller P/E should give similar results to regular P/E.

Compared with the P/S ratio, the Shiller P/E makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

The Shiller P/E assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company’s business model does not work in the future compared with the past, the Shiller P/E and P/S ratio will give false valuations.


Related Terms

P/E Ratio, P/B Ratio, P/S Ratio, Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio, E10


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
ShillerPE 32.2721.9524.7814.084.998.4913.6116.2622.8234.48

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14
ShillerPE 19.0418.6422.8224.3925.2130.3634.4831.9531.6827.35
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