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Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA)
Piotroski F-Score
3 (As of Today)

Warning Sign:

Piotroski F-Score of 3 is low, which usually implies poor business operation.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Alcoa Inc has an F-score of 3. It is a bad or low score, which usually implies poor business operation.

AA' s Piotroski F-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2   Max: 8
Current: 3

2
8

During the past 13 years, the highest Piotroski F-Score of Alcoa Inc was 8. The lowest was 2. And the median was 6.


Definition

How is the Piotroski F-Score calculated?

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar16) TTM:Last Year (Mar15) TTM:
Net Income was 140 + 44 + -701 + 16 = $-501 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 472 + 420 + 865 + -430 = $1,327 Mil.
Revenue was 5897 + 5573 + 5245 + 4947 = $21,662 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1234 + 1014 + 841 + 906 = $3,995 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of this year (Mar15)
to the end of this year (Mar16) was
(35694 + 36587 + 36587 + 36528 + 36140) / 5 = $36307.2 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of this year (Mar15) was $35,694 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $8,257 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $7,665 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $5,555 Mil.
Net Income was 138 + 149 + 159 + 195 = $641 Mil.

Revenue was 5836 + 6239 + 6377 + 5819 = $24,271 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1071 + 1335 + 1404 + 1376 = $5,186 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of last year (Mar14)
to the end of last year (Mar15) was
(35605 + 36309 + 37122 + 37363 + 35694) / 5 = $36418.6 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of last year (Mar14) was $35,605 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $8,711 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $7,722 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $5,064 Mil.

Profitability

Question 1. Return on Assets (ROA)

Net income before extraordinary items for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Alcoa Inc's current net income (TTM) was -501. ==> Negative ==> Score 0.

Question 2. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA)

Net cash flow from operating activities (operating cash flow) divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Alcoa Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 1,327. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 3. Change in Return on Assets

Compare this year’s return on assets (1) to last year’s return on assets.

Score 1 if it’s higher, 0 if it’s lower.

ROA (This Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Mar15)
=-501/35694
=-0.01403597

Alcoa Inc's return on assets of this year was -0.01403597. Alcoa Inc's return on assets of last year was 0.01800309. ==> Last year is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 4. Quality of Earnings (Accrual)

Compare Cash flow return on assets (2) to return on assets (1)

Score 1 if CFROA > ROA, 0 if CFROA <= ROA.

Alcoa Inc's current net income (TTM) was -501. Alcoa Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 1,327. ==> 1,327 > -501 ==> CFROA > ROA ==> Score 1.

Funding

Question 5. Change in Gearing or Leverage

Compare this year’s gearing (long-term debt divided by average total assets) to last year’s gearing.

Score 0 if this year's gearing is higher, 1 otherwise.

Gearing (This Year: Mar16)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Mar15 to Mar16
=8257/36307.2
=0.22742046

Gearing (Last Year: Mar15)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Mar14 to Mar15
=8711/36418.6
=0.23919096

Alcoa Inc's gearing of this year was 0.22742046. Alcoa Inc's gearing of last year was 0.23919096. ==> This year is lower or equal to last year. ==> Score 1.

Question 6. Change in Working Capital (Liquidity)

Compare this year’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to last year’s current ratio.

Score 1 if this year'’s current ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Current Ratio (This Year: Mar16)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=7665/5555
=1.37983798

Current Ratio (Last Year: Mar15)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=7722/5064
=1.52488152

Alcoa Inc's current ratio of this year was 1.37983798. Alcoa Inc's current ratio of last year was 1.52488152. ==> Last year's current ratio is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 7. Change in Shares in Issue

Compare the number of shares in issue this year, to the number in issue last year.

Score 0 if there is larger number of shares in issue this year, 1 otherwise.

Alcoa Inc's number of shares in issue this year was 1314. Alcoa Inc's number of shares in issue last year was 1238. ==> There is larger number of shares in issue this year. ==> Score 0.

Efficiency

Question 8. Change in Gross Margin

Compare this year’s gross margin (gross profit divided by sales) to last year’s.

Score 1 if this year’s gross margin is higher, 0 if it’s lower.

Gross Margin (This Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=3995/21662
=0.18442434

Gross Margin (Last Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=5186/24271
=0.21367064

Alcoa Inc's gross margin of this year was 0.18442434. Alcoa Inc's gross margin of last year was 0.21367064. ==> Last year's gross margin is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 9. Change in asset turnover

Compare this year’s asset turnover (total sales for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year) to last year’s asset turnover ratio.

Score 1 if this year’s asset turnover ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Asset Turnover (This Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Mar15)
=21662/35694
=0.60688071

Asset Turnover (Last Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Mar14)
=24271/35605
=0.68167392

Alcoa Inc's asset turnover of this year was 0.60688071. Alcoa Inc's asset turnover of last year was 0.68167392. ==> Last year's asset turnover is higher ==> Score 0.

Evaluation

Piotroski F-Score= Que. 1+ Que. 2+ Que. 3+Que. 4+Que. 5+Que. 6+Que. 7+Que. 8+Que. 9
=0+1+0+1+1+0+0+0+0
=3

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Alcoa Inc has an F-score of 3. It is a bad or low score, which usually implies poor business operation.


Explanation

The developer of the system is Joseph D. Piotroski is relatively unknown accounting professor who shuns publicity and rarely gives interviews.

He graduated from the University of Illinois with a B.S. in accounting in 1989, received an M.B.A. from Indiana University in 1994. Five years later, in 1999, after earning a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Michigan, he became an associate professor of accounting at the University of Chicago.

In 2000, he wrote a research paper called "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" (pdf).

He wanted to see if he can develop a system (using a simple nine-point scoring system) that can increase the returns of a strategy of investing in low price to book (referred to in the paper as high book to market) value companies.

What he found was something that exceeded his most optimistic expectations.

Buying only those companies that scored highest (8 or 9) on his nine-point scale, or F-Score as he called it, over the 20 year period from 1976 to 1996 led to an average out-performance over the market of 13.4%.

Even more impressive were the results of a strategy of investing in the highest F-Score companies (8 or 9) and shorting companies with the lowest F-Score (0 or 1).

Over the same period from 1976 to 1996 (20 years) this strategy led to an average yearly return of 23%, substantially outperforming the average S&P 500 index return of 15.83% over the same period.


Related Terms

Net Income, Cash Flow from Operations, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Assets, Long-Term Debt, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Alcoa Inc Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
Question 1 1100111010
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 1100110010
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 0100111100
Question 6 1001101011
Question 7 1110001100
Question 8 1000100110
Question 9 1000110010
F-score 8633866573

Alcoa Inc Quarterly Data

Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16
Question 1 0000111100
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 0000111100
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 1000000001
Question 6 0111111010
Question 7 1100000000
Question 8 1111111100
Question 9 0001111100
F-score 5545777633
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