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Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA)
Piotroski F-Score
7 (As of Today)

Good Sign:

Piotroski F-Score of 7 is 7, indicating very healthy situation.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Alcoa Inc has an F-score of 7. It is a good or high score, which usually indicates a very healthy situation.

AA' s 10-Year Piotroski F-Score Range
Min: 3   Max: 8
Current: 7

3
8

During the past 13 years, the highest Piotroski F-Score of Alcoa Inc was 8. The lowest was 3. And the median was 6.


Definition

How is the Piotroski F-Score calculated?

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec14) TTM:Last Year (Dec13) TTM:
Net Income was -178 + 138 + 149 + 159 = $268 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -551 + 518 + 249 + 1458 = $1,674 Mil.
Revenue was 5454 + 5836 + 6239 + 6377 = $23,906 Mil.
Gross Profit was 959 + 1071 + 1335 + 1404 = $4,769 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of this year (Dec13)
to the end of this year (Dec14) was
(35742 + 35605 + 36309 + 37122 + 37399) / 5 = $36435.4 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of this year (Dec13) was $35,742 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $8,769 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $8,269 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $5,541 Mil.
Net Income was 149 + -119 + 24 + -2339 = $-2,285 Mil.

Revenue was 5833 + 5849 + 5765 + 5585 = $23,032 Mil.
Gross Profit was 986 + 916 + 967 + 877 = $3,746 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of last year (Dec12)
to the end of last year (Dec13) was
(40179 + 40106 + 38551 + 38229 + 35742) / 5 = $38561.4 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of last year (Dec12) was $40,179 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7,607 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $6,969 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $6,105 Mil.

Profitability

Question 1. Return on Assets (ROA)

Net income before extraordinary items for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Alcoa Inc's current net income (TTM) was 268. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 2. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA)

Net cash flow from operating activities (operating cash flow) divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Alcoa Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 1,674. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 3. Change in Return on Assets

Compare this year’s return on assets (1) to last year’s return on assets.

Score 1 if it’s higher, 0 if it’s lower.

ROA (Last Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Dec12)
=-2285/40179
=-0.0568705

Alcoa Inc's return on assets of this year was 0.00749818. Alcoa Inc's return on assets of last year was -0.0568705. ==> This year is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 4. Quality of Earnings (Accrual)

Compare Cash flow return on assets (2) to return on assets (1)

Score 1 if CFROA > ROA, 0 if CFROA <= ROA.

Alcoa Inc's current net income (TTM) was 268. Alcoa Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 1,674. ==> 1,674 > 268 ==> CFROA > ROA ==> Score 1.

Funding

Question 5. Change in Gearing or Leverage

Compare this year’s gearing (long-term debt divided by average total assets) to last year’s gearing.

Score 0 if this year's gearing is higher, 1 otherwise.

Gearing (This Year: Dec14)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Dec13 to Dec14
=8769/36435.4
=0.24067253

Gearing (Last Year: Dec13)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Dec12 to Dec13
=7607/38561.4
=0.19726981

Alcoa Inc's gearing of this year was 0.24067253. Alcoa Inc's gearing of last year was 0.19726981. ==> Last year is lower than this year ==> Score 0.

Question 6. Change in Working Capital (Liquidity)

Compare this year’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to last year’s current ratio.

Score 1 if this year'’s current ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Current Ratio (This Year: Dec14)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=8269/5541
=1.4923299

Current Ratio (Last Year: Dec13)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=6969/6105
=1.14152334

Alcoa Inc's current ratio of this year was 1.4923299. Alcoa Inc's current ratio of last year was 1.14152334. ==> This year's current ratio is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 7. Change in Shares in Issue

Compare the number of shares in issue this year, to the number in issue last year.

Score 0 if there is larger number of shares in issue this year, 1 otherwise.

Alcoa Inc's number of shares in issue this year was 1210. Alcoa Inc's number of shares in issue last year was 1073. ==> There is larger number of shares in issue this year. ==> Score 0.

Efficiency

Question 8. Change in Gross Margin

Compare this year’s gross margin (gross profit divided by sales) to last year’s.

Score 1 if this year’s gross margin is higher, 0 if it’s lower.

Gross Margin (This Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=4769/23906
=0.19948967

Gross Margin (Last Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=3746/23032
=0.16264328

Alcoa Inc's gross margin of this year was 0.19948967. Alcoa Inc's gross margin of last year was 0.16264328. ==> This year's gross margin is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 9. Change in asset turnover

Compare this year’s asset turnover (total sales for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year) to last year’s asset turnover ratio.

Score 1 if this year’s asset turnover ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Asset Turnover (This Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Dec13)
=23906/35742
=0.66884897

Asset Turnover (Last Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Dec12)
=23032/40179
=0.57323477

Alcoa Inc's asset turnover of this year was 0.66884897. Alcoa Inc's asset turnover of last year was 0.57323477. ==> This year's asset turnover is higher. ==> Score 1.

Evaluation

Piotroski F-Score= Que. 1+ Que. 2+ Que. 3+Que. 4+Que. 5+Que. 6+Que. 7+Que. 8+Que. 9
=1+1+1+1+0+1+0+1+1
=7

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Alcoa Inc has an F-score of 7. It is a good or high score, which usually indicates a very healthy situation.


Explanation

The developer of the system is Joseph D. Piotroski is relatively unknown accounting professor who shuns publicity and rarely gives interviews.

He graduated from the University of Illinois with a B.S. in accounting in 1989, received an M.B.A. from Indiana University in 1994. Five years later, in 1999, after earning a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Michigan, he became an associate professor of accounting at the University of Chicago.

In 2000, he wrote a research paper called "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" (pdf).

He wanted to see if he can develop a system (using a simple nine-point scoring system) that can increase the returns of a strategy of investing in low price to book (referred to in the paper as high book to market) value companies.

What he found was something that exceeded his most optimistic expectations.

Buying only those companies that scored highest (8 or 9) on his nine-point scale, or F-Score as he called it, over the 20 year period from 1976 to 1996 led to an average out-performance over the market of 13.4%.

Even more impressive were the results of a strategy of investing in the highest F-Score companies (8 or 9) and shorting companies with the lowest F-Score (0 or 1).

Over the same period from 1976 to 1996 (20 years) this strategy led to an average yearly return of 23%, substantially outperforming the average S&P 500 index return of 15.83% over the same period.


Related Terms

Net Income, Cash Flow from Operations, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Assets, Long-Term Debt, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Alcoa Inc Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
Question 1 1110011101
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 0110011001
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 1000011110
Question 6 0100110101
Question 7 1111000110
Question 8 0100010011
Question 9 1100011001
F-score 6853386657

Alcoa Inc Quarterly Data

Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14
Question 1 0111100001
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 0001100001
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 1111110000
Question 6 0100001111
Question 7 1100011000
Question 8 0001111111
Question 9 0001000011
F-score 4647655457
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