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GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with Aetna Inc $AET.
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Aetna Inc (NYSE:AET)
Piotroski F-Score
5 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Aetna Inc has an F-score of 5 indicating the company's financial situation is typical for a stable company.

AET' s Piotroski F-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3   Max: 8
Current: 5

3
8

During the past 13 years, the highest Piotroski F-Score of Aetna Inc was 8. The lowest was 3. And the median was 6.


Definition

How is the Piotroski F-Score calculated?

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Dec16) TTM:Last Year (Dec15) TTM:
Net Income was 726.6 + 790.8 + 603.9 + 139.4 = $2,261 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1780.9 + 428.9 + 2411.2 + -902 = $3,719 Mil.
Revenue was 15693.4 + 15952.3 + 15781.5 + 15727.8 = $63,155 Mil.
Gross Profit was 4316.8 + 4194.7 + 4154.8 + 4132.7 = $16,799 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of this year (Dec15)
to the end of this year (Dec16) was
(53509 + 56423.7 + 70602 + 71882.6 + 69146) / 5 = $64312.66 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of this year (Dec15) was $53,509 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $19,027 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $28,449 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $18,694 Mil.
Net Income was 777.5 + 731.8 + 560.1 + 320.6 = $2,390 Mil.

Revenue was 15094.1 + 15240.9 + 14953 + 15049 = $60,337 Mil.
Gross Profit was 4325.5 + 4205.4 + 4014.7 + 3958.4 = $16,504 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of last year (Dec14)
to the end of last year (Dec15) was
(53402.1 + 55555.4 + 54641.1 + 53478.4 + 53509) / 5 = $54117.2 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of last year (Dec14) was $53,402 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7,785 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $12,725 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $15,609 Mil.

Profitability

Question 1. Return on Assets (ROA)

Net income before extraordinary items for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Aetna Inc's current net income (TTM) was 2,261. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 2. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA)

Net cash flow from operating activities (operating cash flow) divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Aetna Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 3,719. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 3. Change in Return on Assets

Compare this year’s return on assets (1) to last year’s return on assets.

Score 1 if it’s higher, 0 if it’s lower.

ROA (This Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Dec15)
=2260.7/53509
=0.04224897

ROA (Last Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Dec14)
=2390/53402.1
=0.04475479

Aetna Inc's return on assets of this year was 0.04224897. Aetna Inc's return on assets of last year was 0.04475479. ==> Last year is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 4. Quality of Earnings (Accrual)

Compare Cash flow return on assets (2) to return on assets (1)

Score 1 if CFROA > ROA, 0 if CFROA <= ROA.

Aetna Inc's current net income (TTM) was 2,261. Aetna Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 3,719. ==> 3,719 > 2,261 ==> CFROA > ROA ==> Score 1.

Funding

Question 5. Change in Gearing or Leverage

Compare this year’s gearing (long-term debt divided by average total assets) to last year’s gearing.

Score 0 if this year's gearing is higher, 1 otherwise.

Gearing (This Year: Dec16)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Dec15 to Dec16
=19027/64312.66
=0.29585155

Gearing (Last Year: Dec15)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Dec14 to Dec15
=7785/54117.2
=0.14385445

Aetna Inc's gearing of this year was 0.29585155. Aetna Inc's gearing of last year was 0.14385445. ==> Last year is lower than this year ==> Score 0.

Question 6. Change in Working Capital (Liquidity)

Compare this year’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to last year’s current ratio.

Score 1 if this year'’s current ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Current Ratio (This Year: Dec16)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=28449/18694
=1.52182518

Current Ratio (Last Year: Dec15)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=12725/15609
=0.8152348

Aetna Inc's current ratio of this year was 1.52182518. Aetna Inc's current ratio of last year was 0.8152348. ==> This year's current ratio is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 7. Change in Shares in Issue

Compare the number of shares in issue this year, to the number in issue last year.

Score 0 if there is larger number of shares in issue this year, 1 otherwise.

Aetna Inc's number of shares in issue this year was 354.3. Aetna Inc's number of shares in issue last year was 352.6. ==> There is larger number of shares in issue this year. ==> Score 0.

Efficiency

Question 8. Change in Gross Margin

Compare this year’s gross margin (gross profit divided by sales) to last year’s.

Score 1 if this year’s gross margin is higher, 0 if it’s lower.

Gross Margin (This Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=16799/63155
=0.26599636

Gross Margin (Last Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=16504/60337
=0.27353034

Aetna Inc's gross margin of this year was 0.26599636. Aetna Inc's gross margin of last year was 0.27353034. ==> Last year's gross margin is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 9. Change in asset turnover

Compare this year’s asset turnover (total sales for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year) to last year’s asset turnover ratio.

Score 1 if this year’s asset turnover ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Asset Turnover (This Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Dec15)
=63155/53509
=1.18026874

Asset Turnover (Last Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Dec14)
=60337/53402.1
=1.12986193

Aetna Inc's asset turnover of this year was 1.18026874. Aetna Inc's asset turnover of last year was 1.12986193. ==> This year's asset turnover is higher. ==> Score 1.

Evaluation

Piotroski F-Score= Que. 1+ Que. 2+ Que. 3+Que. 4+Que. 5+Que. 6+Que. 7+Que. 8+Que. 9
=1+1+0+1+0+1+0+0+1
=5

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Aetna Inc has an F-score of 5 indicating the company's financial situation is typical for a stable company.


Explanation

The developer of the system is Joseph D. Piotroski is relatively unknown accounting professor who shuns publicity and rarely gives interviews.

He graduated from the University of Illinois with a B.S. in accounting in 1989, received an M.B.A. from Indiana University in 1994. Five years later, in 1999, after earning a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Michigan, he became an associate professor of accounting at the University of Chicago.

In 2000, he wrote a research paper called "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" (pdf).

He wanted to see if he can develop a system (using a simple nine-point scoring system) that can increase the returns of a strategy of investing in low price to book (referred to in the paper as high book to market) value companies.

What he found was something that exceeded his most optimistic expectations.

Buying only those companies that scored highest (8 or 9) on his nine-point scale, or F-Score as he called it, over the 20 year period from 1976 to 1996 led to an average out-performance over the market of 13.4%.

Even more impressive were the results of a strategy of investing in the highest F-Score companies (8 or 9) and shorting companies with the lowest F-Score (0 or 1).

Over the same period from 1976 to 1996 (20 years) this strategy led to an average yearly return of 23%, substantially outperforming the average S&P 500 index return of 15.83% over the same period.


Related Terms

Net Income, Cash Flow from Operations, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Assets, Long-Term Debt, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Aetna Inc Annual Data

Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16
Question 1 1111111111
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 1011101010
Question 4 1110111111
Question 5 0001000110
Question 6 1010010011
Question 7 1111110110
Question 8 0001100110
Question 9 1110111101
F-score 7576765785

Aetna Inc Quarterly Data

Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16
Question 1 1111111111
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 1001011010
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 1111111000
Question 6 0011111111
Question 7 1111110000
Question 8 0111111000
Question 9 1101000111
F-score 7779787565
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