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Forestar Group Inc (NYSE:FOR)
Piotroski F-Score
5 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Forestar Group Inc has an F-score of 5 indicating the company's financial situation is typical for a stable company.

FOR' s 10-Year Piotroski F-Score Range
Min: 1   Max: 7
Current: 5

1
7

During the past 11 years, the highest Piotroski F-Score of Forestar Group Inc was 7. The lowest was 1. And the median was 5.


Definition

How is the Piotroski F-Score calculated?

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep14) TTM:Last Year (Sep13) TTM:
Net Income was 12.999 + 8.334 + 14.822 + 5.227 = $41.4 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 43.694 + 5.543 + 13.452 + 17.391 = $80.1 Mil.
Revenue was 98.388 + 84.605 + 83.013 + 58.84 = $324.8 Mil.
Gross Profit was 39.181 + 35.025 + 33.261 + 19.606 = $127.1 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of this year (Sep13)
to the end of this year (Sep14) was
(1003.487 + 1172.152 + 1143.244 + 1222.352 + 1268.239) / 5 = $1161.8948 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of this year (Sep13) was $1,003.5 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $429.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $825.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $76.1 Mil.
Net Income was 10.032 + 3.951 + 0.541 + 11.83 = $26.4 Mil.

Revenue was 68.577 + 97.471 + 60.079 + 75.107 = $301.2 Mil.
Gross Profit was 33.073 + 35.899 + 22.463 + 32.608 = $124.0 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of last year (Sep12)
to the end of last year (Sep13) was
(889.939 + 918.434 + 972.678 + 979.552 + 1003.487) / 5 = $952.818 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of last year (Sep12) was $889.9 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $335.2 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $617.7 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $60.0 Mil.

Profitability

Q1. Return on Assets (ROA)

Net income before extraordinary items for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Forestar Group Inc's current net income (TTM) was 41.4. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Q2. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA)

Net cash flow from operating activities (operating cash flow) divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Forestar Group Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 80.1. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Q3. Change in Return on Assets

Compare this year’s return on assets (1) to last year’s return on assets.

Score 1 if it’s higher, 0 if it’s lower.

ROA (This Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Sep13)
=41.382/1003.487
=0.0412382

ROA (Last Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Sep12)
=26.354/889.939
=0.02961327

Forestar Group Inc's return on assets of this year was 0.0412382. Forestar Group Inc's return on assets of last year was 0.02961327. ==> This year is higher. ==> Score 1.

Q4. Quality of Earnings (Accrual)

Compare Cash flow return on assets (2) to return on assets (1)

Score 1 if CFROA > ROA, 0 if CFROA <= ROA.

Forestar Group Inc's current net income (TTM) was 41.4. Forestar Group Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 80.1. ==> 80.1 > 41.4 ==> CFROA > ROA ==> Score 1.

Funding

Q5. Change in Gearing or Leverage

Compare this year’s gearing (long-term debt divided by average total assets) to last year’s gearing.

Score 0 if this year's gearing is higher, 1 otherwise.

Gearing (This Year: Sep14)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Sep13 to Sep14
=429.295/1161.8948
=0.36947837

Gearing (Last Year: Sep13)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Sep12 to Sep13
=335.171/952.818
=0.35176812

Forestar Group Inc's gearing of this year was 0.36947837. Forestar Group Inc's gearing of last year was 0.35176812. ==> Last year is lower than this year ==> Score 0.

Q6. Change in Working Capital (Liquidity)

Compare this year’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to last year’s current ratio.

Score 1 if this year'’s current ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Current Ratio (This Year: Sep14)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=825.378/76.095
=10.84667849

Current Ratio (Last Year: Sep13)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=617.735/60.027
=10.2909524

Forestar Group Inc's current ratio of this year was 10.84667849. Forestar Group Inc's current ratio of last year was 10.2909524. ==> This year's current ratio is higher. ==> Score 1.

Q7. Change in Shares in Issue

Compare the number of shares in issue this year, to the number in issue last year.

Score 0 if there is larger number of shares in issue this year, 1 otherwise.

Forestar Group Inc's number of shares in issue this year was 43.9. Forestar Group Inc's number of shares in issue last year was 36.1. ==> There is larger number of shares in issue this year. ==> Score 0.

Efficiency

Q8. Change in Gross Margin

Compare this year’s gross margin (gross profit divided by sales) to last year’s.

Score 1 if this year’s gross margin is higher, 0 if it’s lower.

Gross Margin (This Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=127.073/324.846
=0.3911792

Gross Margin (Last Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=124.043/301.234
=0.41178287

Forestar Group Inc's gross margin of this year was 0.3911792. Forestar Group Inc's gross margin of last year was 0.41178287. ==> Last year's gross margin is higher ==> Score 0.

Q9. Change in asset turnover

Compare this year’s asset turnover (total sales for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year) to last year’s asset turnover ratio.

Score 1 if this year’s asset turnover ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Asset Turnover (This Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Sep13)
=324.846/1003.487
=0.3237172

Asset Turnover (Last Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Sep12)
=301.234/889.939
=0.33848837

Forestar Group Inc's asset turnover of this year was 0.3237172. Forestar Group Inc's asset turnover of last year was 0.33848837. ==> Last year's asset turnover is higher ==> Score 0.

Evaluation

Piotroski F-Score=Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4+Q5+Q6+Q7+Q8+Q9
=1+1+1+1+0+1+0+0+0
=5

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Forestar Group Inc has an F-score of 5 indicating the company's financial situation is typical for a stable company.


Explanation

The developer of the system is Joseph D. Piotroski is relatively unknown accounting professor who shuns publicity and rarely gives interviews.

He graduated from the University of Illinois with a B.S. in accounting in 1989, received an M.B.A. from Indiana University in 1994. Five years later, in 1999, after earning a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Michigan, he became an associate professor of accounting at the University of Chicago.

In 2000, he wrote a research paper called "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" (pdf).

He wanted to see if he can develop a system (using a simple nine-point scoring system) that can increase the returns of a strategy of investing in low price to book (referred to in the paper as high book to market) value companies.

What he found was something that exceeded his most optimistic expectations.

Buying only those companies that scored highest (8 or 9) on his nine-point scale, or F-Score as he called it, over the 20 year period from 1976 to 1996 led to an average out-performance over the market of 13.4%.

Even more impressive were the results of a strategy of investing in the highest F-Score companies (8 or 9) and shorting companies with the lowest F-Score (0 or 1).

Over the same period from 1976 to 1996 (20 years) this strategy led to an average yearly return of 23%, substantially outperforming the average S&P 500 index return of 15.83% over the same period.


Related Terms

Net Income, Cash Flow from Operations, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Assets, Long-Term Debt, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Forestar Group Inc Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
Q1 1111111
Q2 0011101
Q3 0010111
Q4 0011101
Q5 0010101
Q6 0111000
Q7 1000110
Q8 1010010
Q9 0000111
F-score 3274756

Forestar Group Inc Quarterly Data

Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14
Q1 1011111111
Q2 1001111111
Q3 1011011111
Q4 1101111111
Q5 1000000110
Q6 0000010001
Q7 1100000000
Q8 0010000000
Q9 1111111110
F-score 7345465665
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