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Guess? Inc (NYSE:GES)
Piotroski F-Score
6 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Guess? Inc has an F-score of 6 indicating the company's financial situation is typical for a stable company.

GES' s Piotroski F-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 4   Max: 8
Current: 6

4
8

During the past 13 years, the highest Piotroski F-Score of Guess? Inc was 8. The lowest was 4. And the median was 6.


Definition

How is the Piotroski F-Score calculated?

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jan16) TTM:Last Year (Jan15) TTM:
Net Income was 3.341 + 18.289 + 12.444 + 47.777 = $82 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 9.135 + 47.601 + 7.991 + 114.702 = $179 Mil.
Revenue was 478.824 + 546.264 + 520.964 + 658.259 = $2,204 Mil.
Gross Profit was 165.485 + 198.117 + 183.664 + 240.164 = $787 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of this year (Jan15)
to the end of this year (Jan16) was
(1601.405 + 1555.239 + 1563.612 + 1522.472 + 1538.748) / 5 = $1556.2952 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of this year (Jan15) was $1,601 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,036 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $327 Mil.
Net Income was -2.101 + 21.954 + 20.788 + 53.929 = $95 Mil.

Revenue was 522.541 + 608.571 + 589.834 + 696.727 = $2,418 Mil.
Gross Profit was 176.231 + 216.777 + 213.958 + 260.919 = $868 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of last year (Jan14)
to the end of last year (Jan15) was
(1764.431 + 1713.751 + 1740.419 + 1654.096 + 1601.405) / 5 = $1694.8204 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of last year (Jan14) was $1,764 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,092 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $302 Mil.

Profitability

Question 1. Return on Assets (ROA)

Net income before extraordinary items for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Guess? Inc's current net income (TTM) was 82. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 2. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA)

Net cash flow from operating activities (operating cash flow) divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Guess? Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 179. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 3. Change in Return on Assets

Compare this year’s return on assets (1) to last year’s return on assets.

Score 1 if it’s higher, 0 if it’s lower.

ROA (This Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Jan15)
=81.851/1601.405
=0.05111199

ROA (Last Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Jan14)
=94.57/1764.431
=0.05359802

Guess? Inc's return on assets of this year was 0.05111199. Guess? Inc's return on assets of last year was 0.05359802. ==> Last year is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 4. Quality of Earnings (Accrual)

Compare Cash flow return on assets (2) to return on assets (1)

Score 1 if CFROA > ROA, 0 if CFROA <= ROA.

Guess? Inc's current net income (TTM) was 82. Guess? Inc's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 179. ==> 179 > 82 ==> CFROA > ROA ==> Score 1.

Funding

Question 5. Change in Gearing or Leverage

Compare this year’s gearing (long-term debt divided by average total assets) to last year’s gearing.

Score 0 if this year's gearing is higher, 1 otherwise.

Gearing (This Year: Jan16)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Jan15 to Jan16
=2.318/1556.2952
=0.00148943

Gearing (Last Year: Jan15)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Jan14 to Jan15
=6.165/1694.8204
=0.00363755

Guess? Inc's gearing of this year was 0.00148943. Guess? Inc's gearing of last year was 0.00363755. ==> This year is lower or equal to last year. ==> Score 1.

Question 6. Change in Working Capital (Liquidity)

Compare this year’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to last year’s current ratio.

Score 1 if this year'’s current ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Current Ratio (This Year: Jan16)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=1036.252/327.059
=3.16839469

Current Ratio (Last Year: Jan15)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=1092.299/301.966
=3.61729135

Guess? Inc's current ratio of this year was 3.16839469. Guess? Inc's current ratio of last year was 3.61729135. ==> Last year's current ratio is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 7. Change in Shares in Issue

Compare the number of shares in issue this year, to the number in issue last year.

Score 0 if there is larger number of shares in issue this year, 1 otherwise.

Guess? Inc's number of shares in issue this year was 84.5. Guess? Inc's number of shares in issue last year was 84.8. ==> There is smaller number of shares in issue this year, or the same. ==> Score 1.

Efficiency

Question 8. Change in Gross Margin

Compare this year’s gross margin (gross profit divided by sales) to last year’s.

Score 1 if this year’s gross margin is higher, 0 if it’s lower.

Gross Margin (This Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=787.43/2204.311
=0.35722273

Gross Margin (Last Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=867.885/2417.673
=0.35897535

Guess? Inc's gross margin of this year was 0.35722273. Guess? Inc's gross margin of last year was 0.35897535. ==> Last year's gross margin is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 9. Change in asset turnover

Compare this year’s asset turnover (total sales for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year) to last year’s asset turnover ratio.

Score 1 if this year’s asset turnover ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Asset Turnover (This Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Jan15)
=2204.311/1601.405
=1.37648565

Asset Turnover (Last Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Jan14)
=2417.673/1764.431
=1.37022814

Guess? Inc's asset turnover of this year was 1.37648565. Guess? Inc's asset turnover of last year was 1.37022814. ==> This year's asset turnover is higher. ==> Score 1.

Evaluation

Piotroski F-Score= Que. 1+ Que. 2+ Que. 3+Que. 4+Que. 5+Que. 6+Que. 7+Que. 8+Que. 9
=1+1+0+1+1+0+1+0+1
=6

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Guess? Inc has an F-score of 6 indicating the company's financial situation is typical for a stable company.


Explanation

The developer of the system is Joseph D. Piotroski is relatively unknown accounting professor who shuns publicity and rarely gives interviews.

He graduated from the University of Illinois with a B.S. in accounting in 1989, received an M.B.A. from Indiana University in 1994. Five years later, in 1999, after earning a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Michigan, he became an associate professor of accounting at the University of Chicago.

In 2000, he wrote a research paper called "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" (pdf).

He wanted to see if he can develop a system (using a simple nine-point scoring system) that can increase the returns of a strategy of investing in low price to book (referred to in the paper as high book to market) value companies.

What he found was something that exceeded his most optimistic expectations.

Buying only those companies that scored highest (8 or 9) on his nine-point scale, or F-Score as he called it, over the 20 year period from 1976 to 1996 led to an average out-performance over the market of 13.4%.

Even more impressive were the results of a strategy of investing in the highest F-Score companies (8 or 9) and shorting companies with the lowest F-Score (0 or 1).

Over the same period from 1976 to 1996 (20 years) this strategy led to an average yearly return of 23%, substantially outperforming the average S&P 500 index return of 15.83% over the same period.


Related Terms

Net Income, Cash Flow from Operations, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Assets, Long-Term Debt, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Guess? Inc Annual Data

Dec06Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14Jan15Jan16
Question 1 1111111111
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 1101000000
Question 4 1011111111
Question 5 1111111111
Question 6 1111010110
Question 7 0111011101
Question 8 0101000000
Question 9 0100000101
F-score 6868465756

Guess? Inc Quarterly Data

Oct13Jan14Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16
Question 1 1111111111
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 0000000000
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 1111111111
Question 6 1111111100
Question 7 1110000011
Question 8 0000000000
Question 9 1110000001
F-score 7775555556
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