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Ultra Petroleum Corp (NYSE:UPL)
Piotroski F-Score
6 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Ultra Petroleum Corp has an F-score of 6 indicating the company's financial situation is typical for a stable company.

UPL' s Piotroski F-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2   Max: 9
Current: 6

2
9

During the past 13 years, the highest Piotroski F-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was 9. The lowest was 2. And the median was 6.


Definition

How is the Piotroski F-Score calculated?

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep15) TTM:Last Year (Sep14) TTM:
Net Income was 209.726 + 25.189 + -24.673 + -3.096 = $207.1 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 197.422 + 121.799 + 121.525 + 167.881 = $608.6 Mil.
Revenue was 319.05 + 219.309 + 207.998 + 222.503 = $968.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was 251.161 + 153.249 + 136.649 + 149.512 = $690.6 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of this year (Sep14)
to the end of this year (Sep15) was
(4003.927 + 4225.69 + 4266.03 + 4194.425 + 4191.965) / 5 = $4176.4074 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of this year (Sep14) was $4,003.9 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,346.0 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $148.7 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $330.0 Mil.
Net Income was 41.121 + 101.715 + 106.049 + 125.357 = $374.2 Mil.

Revenue was 225.197 + 326.299 + 296.063 + 288.608 = $1,136.2 Mil.
Gross Profit was 175.077 + 272.003 + 242.382 + 230.266 = $919.7 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of last year (Sep13)
to the end of last year (Sep14) was
(2068.956 + 2785.319 + 2881.842 + 2958.133 + 4003.927) / 5 = $2939.6354 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of last year (Sep13) was $2,069.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,326.0 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $136.9 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $374.5 Mil.

Profitability

Question 1. Return on Assets (ROA)

Net income before extraordinary items for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Ultra Petroleum Corp's current net income (TTM) was 207.1. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 2. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA)

Net cash flow from operating activities (operating cash flow) divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Ultra Petroleum Corp's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 608.6. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 3. Change in Return on Assets

Compare this year’s return on assets (1) to last year’s return on assets.

Score 1 if it’s higher, 0 if it’s lower.

ROA (This Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Sep14)
=207.146/4003.927
=0.05173571

ROA (Last Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Sep13)
=374.242/2068.956
=0.18088447

Ultra Petroleum Corp's return on assets of this year was 0.05173571. Ultra Petroleum Corp's return on assets of last year was 0.18088447. ==> Last year is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 4. Quality of Earnings (Accrual)

Compare Cash flow return on assets (2) to return on assets (1)

Score 1 if CFROA > ROA, 0 if CFROA <= ROA.

Ultra Petroleum Corp's current net income (TTM) was 207.1. Ultra Petroleum Corp's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 608.6. ==> 608.6 > 207.1 ==> CFROA > ROA ==> Score 1.

Funding

Question 5. Change in Gearing or Leverage

Compare this year’s gearing (long-term debt divided by average total assets) to last year’s gearing.

Score 0 if this year's gearing is higher, 1 otherwise.

Gearing (This Year: Sep15)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Sep14 to Sep15
=3346/4176.4074
=0.80116705

Gearing (Last Year: Sep14)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Sep13 to Sep14
=3326/2939.6354
=1.13143283

Ultra Petroleum Corp's gearing of this year was 0.80116705. Ultra Petroleum Corp's gearing of last year was 1.13143283. ==> This year is lower or equal to last year. ==> Score 1.

Question 6. Change in Working Capital (Liquidity)

Compare this year’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to last year’s current ratio.

Score 1 if this year'’s current ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Current Ratio (This Year: Sep15)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=148.733/330.02
=0.45067875

Current Ratio (Last Year: Sep14)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=136.877/374.457
=0.36553463

Ultra Petroleum Corp's current ratio of this year was 0.45067875. Ultra Petroleum Corp's current ratio of last year was 0.36553463. ==> This year's current ratio is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 7. Change in Shares in Issue

Compare the number of shares in issue this year, to the number in issue last year.

Score 0 if there is larger number of shares in issue this year, 1 otherwise.

Ultra Petroleum Corp's number of shares in issue this year was 153.3. Ultra Petroleum Corp's number of shares in issue last year was 154.9. ==> There is smaller number of shares in issue this year, or the same. ==> Score 1.

Efficiency

Question 8. Change in Gross Margin

Compare this year’s gross margin (gross profit divided by sales) to last year’s.

Score 1 if this year’s gross margin is higher, 0 if it’s lower.

Gross Margin (This Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=690.571/968.86
=0.71276655

Gross Margin (Last Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=919.728/1136.167
=0.80950072

Ultra Petroleum Corp's gross margin of this year was 0.71276655. Ultra Petroleum Corp's gross margin of last year was 0.80950072. ==> Last year's gross margin is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 9. Change in asset turnover

Compare this year’s asset turnover (total sales for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year) to last year’s asset turnover ratio.

Score 1 if this year’s asset turnover ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Asset Turnover (This Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Sep14)
=968.86/4003.927
=0.24197744

Asset Turnover (Last Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Sep13)
=1136.167/2068.956
=0.54914991

Ultra Petroleum Corp's asset turnover of this year was 0.24197744. Ultra Petroleum Corp's asset turnover of last year was 0.54914991. ==> Last year's asset turnover is higher ==> Score 0.

Evaluation

Piotroski F-Score= Que. 1+ Que. 2+ Que. 3+Que. 4+Que. 5+Que. 6+Que. 7+Que. 8+Que. 9
=1+1+0+1+1+1+1+0+0
=6

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Ultra Petroleum Corp has an F-score of 6 indicating the company's financial situation is typical for a stable company.


Explanation

The developer of the system is Joseph D. Piotroski is relatively unknown accounting professor who shuns publicity and rarely gives interviews.

He graduated from the University of Illinois with a B.S. in accounting in 1989, received an M.B.A. from Indiana University in 1994. Five years later, in 1999, after earning a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Michigan, he became an associate professor of accounting at the University of Chicago.

In 2000, he wrote a research paper called "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" (pdf).

He wanted to see if he can develop a system (using a simple nine-point scoring system) that can increase the returns of a strategy of investing in low price to book (referred to in the paper as high book to market) value companies.

What he found was something that exceeded his most optimistic expectations.

Buying only those companies that scored highest (8 or 9) on his nine-point scale, or F-Score as he called it, over the 20 year period from 1976 to 1996 led to an average out-performance over the market of 13.4%.

Even more impressive were the results of a strategy of investing in the highest F-Score companies (8 or 9) and shorting companies with the lowest F-Score (0 or 1).

Over the same period from 1976 to 1996 (20 years) this strategy led to an average yearly return of 23%, substantially outperforming the average S&P 500 index return of 15.83% over the same period.


Related Terms

Net Income, Cash Flow from Operations, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Assets, Long-Term Debt, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
Question 1 1111011011
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 1001010011
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 1000001001
Question 6 1000010011
Question 7 1111101101
Question 8 1010010111
Question 9 1001010010
F-score 9456375478

Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data

Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15
Question 1 0011111111
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 0111111100
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 0000001111
Question 6 0010011111
Question 7 0000001011
Question 8 1111111000
Question 9 1111110000
F-score 4576678666
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