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Ultra Petroleum Corp (NYSE:UPL)
Piotroski F-Score
7 (As of Today)

Good Sign:

Piotroski F-Score of 7 is 7, indicating very healthy situation.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Ultra Petroleum Corp has an F-score of 7. It is a good or high score, which usually indicates a very healthy situation.

UPL' s 10-Year Piotroski F-Score Range
Min: 2   Max: 9
Current: 7

2
9

During the past 13 years, the highest Piotroski F-Score of Ultra Petroleum Corp was 9. The lowest was 2. And the median was 6.


Definition

How is the Piotroski F-Score calculated?

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar15) TTM:Last Year (Mar14) TTM:
Net Income was 106.049 + 125.357 + 209.726 + 25.189 = $466 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 171.076 + 168.511 + 197.422 + 121.799 = $659 Mil.
Revenue was 296.063 + 288.608 + 319.05 + 219.309 = $1,123 Mil.
Gross Profit was 212.712 + 201.461 + 216.44 + 128.192 = $759 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of this year (Mar14)
to the end of this year (Mar15) was
(2881.842 + 2958.133 + 4003.927 + 4225.69 + 4266.03) / 5 = $3667.1244 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of this year (Mar14) was $2,882 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,379 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $270 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $346 Mil.
Net Income was 116.377 + 63.91 + 41.121 + 101.715 = $323 Mil.

Revenue was 261.376 + 221.205 + 225.197 + 326.299 = $1,034 Mil.
Gross Profit was 184.373 + 148.277 + 152.319 + 240.996 = $726 Mil.
Average Total Assets from the begining of last year (Mar13)
to the end of last year (Mar14) was
(2035.383 + 2062.878 + 2068.956 + 2785.319 + 2881.842) / 5 = $2366.8756 Mil.
Total Assets at the begining of last year (Mar13) was $2,035 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,325 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $158 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $533 Mil.

Profitability

Question 1. Return on Assets (ROA)

Net income before extraordinary items for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Ultra Petroleum Corp's current net income (TTM) was 466. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 2. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA)

Net cash flow from operating activities (operating cash flow) divided by total assets at the beginning of the year.

Score 1 if positive, 0 if negative.

Ultra Petroleum Corp's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 659. ==> Positive ==> Score 1.

Question 3. Change in Return on Assets

Compare this year’s return on assets (1) to last year’s return on assets.

Score 1 if it’s higher, 0 if it’s lower.

ROA (This Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Mar14)
=466.321/2881.842
=0.16181352

ROA (Last Year)=Net Income (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Mar13)
=323.123/2035.383
=0.15875292

Ultra Petroleum Corp's return on assets of this year was 0.16181352. Ultra Petroleum Corp's return on assets of last year was 0.15875292. ==> This year is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 4. Quality of Earnings (Accrual)

Compare Cash flow return on assets (2) to return on assets (1)

Score 1 if CFROA > ROA, 0 if CFROA <= ROA.

Ultra Petroleum Corp's current net income (TTM) was 466. Ultra Petroleum Corp's current cash flow from operations (TTM) was 659. ==> 659 > 466 ==> CFROA > ROA ==> Score 1.

Funding

Question 5. Change in Gearing or Leverage

Compare this year’s gearing (long-term debt divided by average total assets) to last year’s gearing.

Score 0 if this year's gearing is higher, 1 otherwise.

Gearing (This Year: Mar15)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Mar14 to Mar15
=3379/3667.1244
=0.92143043

Gearing (Last Year: Mar14)=Long-Term Debt/Average Total Assets from Mar13 to Mar14
=2325/2366.8756
=0.98230765

Ultra Petroleum Corp's gearing of this year was 0.92143043. Ultra Petroleum Corp's gearing of last year was 0.98230765. ==> This year is lower or equal to last year. ==> Score 1.

Question 6. Change in Working Capital (Liquidity)

Compare this year’s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) to last year’s current ratio.

Score 1 if this year'’s current ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Current Ratio (This Year: Mar15)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=270.073/346.179
=0.7801542

Current Ratio (Last Year: Mar14)=Total Current Assets/Total Current Liabilities
=158.029/532.839
=0.29657927

Ultra Petroleum Corp's current ratio of this year was 0.7801542. Ultra Petroleum Corp's current ratio of last year was 0.29657927. ==> This year's current ratio is higher. ==> Score 1.

Question 7. Change in Shares in Issue

Compare the number of shares in issue this year, to the number in issue last year.

Score 0 if there is larger number of shares in issue this year, 1 otherwise.

Ultra Petroleum Corp's number of shares in issue this year was 0. Ultra Petroleum Corp's number of shares in issue last year was 155. ==> There is smaller number of shares in issue this year, or the same. ==> Score 1.

Efficiency

Question 8. Change in Gross Margin

Compare this year’s gross margin (gross profit divided by sales) to last year’s.

Score 1 if this year’s gross margin is higher, 0 if it’s lower.

Gross Margin (This Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=758.805/1123.03
=0.67567652

Gross Margin (Last Year: TTM)=Gross Profit/Revenue
=725.965/1034.077
=0.70204153

Ultra Petroleum Corp's gross margin of this year was 0.67567652. Ultra Petroleum Corp's gross margin of last year was 0.70204153. ==> Last year's gross margin is higher ==> Score 0.

Question 9. Change in asset turnover

Compare this year’s asset turnover (total sales for the year divided by total assets at the beginning of the year) to last year’s asset turnover ratio.

Score 1 if this year’s asset turnover ratio is higher, 0 if it’s lower

Asset Turnover (This Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of This Year (Mar14)
=1123.03/2881.842
=0.38969173

Asset Turnover (Last Year)=Revenue (TTM)/Total Assets at the Beginning of Last Year (Mar13)
=1034.077/2035.383
=0.50805033

Ultra Petroleum Corp's asset turnover of this year was 0.38969173. Ultra Petroleum Corp's asset turnover of last year was 0.50805033. ==> Last year's asset turnover is higher ==> Score 0.

Evaluation

Piotroski F-Score= Que. 1+ Que. 2+ Que. 3+Que. 4+Que. 5+Que. 6+Que. 7+Que. 8+Que. 9
=1+1+1+1+1+1+1+0+0
=7

Good or high score = 7, 8, 9
Bad or low score = 0, 1, 2, 3

Ultra Petroleum Corp has an F-score of 7. It is a good or high score, which usually indicates a very healthy situation.


Explanation

The developer of the system is Joseph D. Piotroski is relatively unknown accounting professor who shuns publicity and rarely gives interviews.

He graduated from the University of Illinois with a B.S. in accounting in 1989, received an M.B.A. from Indiana University in 1994. Five years later, in 1999, after earning a Ph.D. in accounting from the University of Michigan, he became an associate professor of accounting at the University of Chicago.

In 2000, he wrote a research paper called "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers" (pdf).

He wanted to see if he can develop a system (using a simple nine-point scoring system) that can increase the returns of a strategy of investing in low price to book (referred to in the paper as high book to market) value companies.

What he found was something that exceeded his most optimistic expectations.

Buying only those companies that scored highest (8 or 9) on his nine-point scale, or F-Score as he called it, over the 20 year period from 1976 to 1996 led to an average out-performance over the market of 13.4%.

Even more impressive were the results of a strategy of investing in the highest F-Score companies (8 or 9) and shorting companies with the lowest F-Score (0 or 1).

Over the same period from 1976 to 1996 (20 years) this strategy led to an average yearly return of 23%, substantially outperforming the average S&P 500 index return of 15.83% over the same period.


Related Terms

Net Income, Cash Flow from Operations, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Assets, Long-Term Debt, Total Current Assets, Total Current Liabilities


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Ultra Petroleum Corp Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
Question 1 1111011011
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 1001010011
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 1000001001
Question 6 1000010011
Question 7 0111100100
Question 8 1001010011
Question 9 1001010010
F-score 8447374377

Ultra Petroleum Corp Quarterly Data

Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15
Question 1 0000111111
Question 2 1111111111
Question 3 0001111111
Question 4 1111111111
Question 5 0000000011
Question 6 0000100111
Question 7 1000000011
Question 8 0000011110
Question 9 0011111100
F-score 3234666787
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