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Autodesk Inc (NAS:ADSK)
Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected)
$27.32 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Autodesk Inc's DCF projected intrinsic value is $27.32. The stock price of Autodesk Inc is $57.01. Therefore, Autodesk Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of today is 2.1.

ADSK' s 10-Year Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Range
Min: 0.5   Max: 3.36
Current: 2.1

0.5
3.36

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of Autodesk Inc was 3.36. The lowest was 0.50. And the median was 1.35.

ADSK's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) is ranked higher than
80% of the 2271 Companies
in the Global Software - Application industry.

( Industry Median: 8.40 vs. ADSK: 2.10 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Autodesk Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Autodesk Inc Quarterly Data

201207201210201301201304201307201310201401201404201407201410
total_freecashflow 90141144198497817420479108
201001201004201007201010201101201104201107201110201201201204
total_freecashflow 117133106107166105116129161128
200901200904200907200910
total_freecashflow 67143741

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Autodesk Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $448.47.

Autodesk Inc's DCF Projected Intrinsic Value for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Oct14)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(10.0568367669*448.466666667+2268.5*0.8)/231.500
=27.32

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Autodesk Inc's Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value=Share Price/DCF Projected Intrinsic Value
=57.01/27.3216244581
=2.09

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value (DE), Intrinsic Value (DCF), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Autodesk Inc Annual Data

Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14
iv_dcf_share 9.1115.1120.6626.4633.4226.8824.4726.6826.9126.53

Autodesk Inc Quarterly Data

Jul12Oct12Jan13Apr13Jul13Oct13Jan14Apr14Jul14Oct14
iv_dcf_share 27.1527.3926.9127.5327.0026.9626.5326.9626.3527.32
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