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Autodesk Inc (NAS:ADSK)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$25.13 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Autodesk Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is $25.13. The stock price of Autodesk Inc is $71.08. Therefore, Autodesk Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 2.8.

ADSK' s Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.5   Max: 3.32
Current: 2.83

0.5
3.32

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Autodesk Inc was 3.32. The lowest was 0.50. And the median was 1.44.

ADSK's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is ranked lower than
68% of the 783 Companies
in the Global Software - Application industry.

( Industry Median: 1.90 vs. ADSK: 2.83 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Autodesk Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Autodesk Inc Quarterly Data

201404201407201410201501201504201507201510201601201604201607
total_freecashflow 20479108242746068139142-38
201110201201201204201207201210201301201304201307201310201401
total_freecashflow 129161128901411441984978174
201010201101201104201107
total_freecashflow 107166105116

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Autodesk Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $477.25.

Autodesk Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Jul16)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(9.52035159596*477.25+1331.7*0.8)/223.200
=25.13

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Autodesk Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=71.08/25.1296944407
=2.83

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Autodesk Inc Annual Data

Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14Jan15Jan16
Projected FCF 20.6926.2932.9427.2224.7226.5427.0126.8733.7326.79

Autodesk Inc Quarterly Data

Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16Jul16
Projected FCF 26.9626.3527.4633.7329.2927.3227.1226.7926.3925.13
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