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Apollo Education Group Inc (NAS:APOL)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$50.12 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Apollo Education Group Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is $50.12. The stock price of Apollo Education Group Inc is $10.90. Therefore, Apollo Education Group Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.2.

APOL' s 10-Year Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Range
Min: 0.19   Max: 5.1
Current: 0.22

0.19
5.1

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Apollo Education Group Inc was 5.10. The lowest was 0.19. And the median was 1.39.

APOL's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is ranked higher than
92% of the 62 Companies
in the Global Education & Training Services industry.

( Industry Median: 1.04 vs. APOL: 0.22 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Apollo Education Group Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Apollo Education Group Inc Quarterly Data

201302201305201308201311201402201405201408201411201502201505
total_freecashflow 67446595417367-21438
201008201011201102201105201108201111201202201205201208201211
total_freecashflow 16933546248106278448106183
200908200911201002201005
total_freecashflow 118368-1330

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Apollo Education Group Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $472.84.

Apollo Education Group Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(May15)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(9.52035159596*472.843666667+1178.702*0.8)/108.623
=50.12

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Apollo Education Group Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=10.90/50.1238186811
=0.22

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Apollo Education Group Inc Annual Data

Aug05Aug06Aug07Aug08Aug09Aug10Aug11Aug12Aug13Aug14
Projected FCF 24.5230.6336.7546.2758.1769.1878.9793.3373.3358.55

Apollo Education Group Inc Quarterly Data

Feb13May13Aug13Nov13Feb14May14Aug14Nov14Feb15May15
Projected FCF 87.4481.2273.3368.5360.5559.1558.5554.4253.8950.12
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