GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Aspen Technology Inc (NAS:AZPN) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

Aspen Technology (Aspen Technology) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $209.85 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

What is Aspen Technology Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-25), Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $209.85. The stock price of Aspen Technology is $196.76. Therefore, Aspen Technology's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.9.

The historical rank and industry rank for Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

AZPN' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.56   Med: 2.25   Max: 4.4
Current: 0.94

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Aspen Technology was 4.40. The lowest was 0.56. And the median was 2.25.

AZPN's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
73.45% of 1262 companies
in the Software industry
Industry Median: 1.595 vs AZPN: 0.94

Aspen Technology Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Aspen Technology Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Aspen Technology Annual Data
Trend Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 44.51 49.23 55.74 325.32 211.06

Aspen Technology Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 206.13 207.72 211.06 208.16 209.85

Competitive Comparison of Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Software - Application subindustry, Aspen Technology's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Aspen Technology's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Aspen Technology's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Aspen Technology's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Aspen Technology Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Aspen Technology's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $207.75.

Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*207.74704+12849.073*0.8)/63.699
=209.85

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Aspen Technology  (NAS:AZPN) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Aspen Technology's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=196.76/209.84521941942
=0.94

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Aspen Technology Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Aspen Technology's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Aspen Technology (Aspen Technology) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20 Crosby Drive, Bedford, MA, USA, 01730
Aspen Technology is a global leader in asset optimization software, enabling customers within capital-intensive industries to design, operate and maintain their functions to meet their profitability, safety, and sustainability goals. The heritage business of AspenTech was founded in 1981 and provides software solutions purposed to optimize engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain and asset management functions. In 2021, Emerson Electric traded over $6 billion in cash and its Open Systems International (digital grid management) and subsurface science and engineering businesses for 55% of AspenTech's shares. The new AspenTech is the combination of heritage Aspen, OSI, and SSE and serves more than 3,000 customers across 40 countries.
Executives
Whelan, Jr. Robert M. director ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Mark Edgar Mouritsen officer: Senior VP & General Counsel C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
F G Hammond officer: Senior VP & General Counsel C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 10 CANAL PARK, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Antonio J Pietri director, officer: President & CEO C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Robert E Beauchamp director 2101 CITYWEST BLVD, HOUSTON TX 77042-2827
Chantelle Yvette Breithaupt officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. 20 CROSBY DR., BEDFORD MA 01730
Arlen Shenkman director C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Thomas F Bogan director C/O WORKDAY, INC., 6110 STONERIDGE MALL RD, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Patrick M. Antkowiak director 4 PATRICK WAY, KINGSVILLE MD 21087
Christopher Stagno officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer C/O BRIGHTCOVE INC., 290 CONGRESS STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Manish Chawla officer: Chief Revenue Officer C/O ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC., 20 CROSBY DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Jill D. Smith director 1601 DRY CREEK DRIVE, SUITE 260, LONGMONT CO 80503
Karen Golz director ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, NORWOOD MA 02062
Ram R. Krishnan director C/O EMERSON ELECTRIC CO., 8000 W. FLORISSANT AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63136
Emerson Electric Co director, 10 percent owner 8000 W. FLORISSANT, P.O. BOX 4100, ST LOUIS MO 63136