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ConAgra Foods Inc (NYSE:CAG)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$30.61 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, ConAgra Foods Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is $30.61. The stock price of ConAgra Foods Inc is $43.72. Therefore, ConAgra Foods Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 1.4.

CAG' s 10-Year Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Range
Min: 0.93   Max: 2.84
Current: 1.43

0.93
2.84

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of ConAgra Foods Inc was 2.84. The lowest was 0.93. And the median was 1.30.

CAG's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is ranked higher than
51% of the 615 Companies
in the Global Packaged Foods industry.

( Industry Median: 1.44 vs. CAG: 1.43 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here ConAgra Foods Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

ConAgra Foods Inc Quarterly Data

201211201302201305201308201311201402201405201408201411201502
total_freecashflow 74196458-824825345512294207
201005201008201011201102201105201108201111201202201205201208
total_freecashflow 244-20128467293162167148175226
200905200908200911201002
total_freecashflow 392145272330

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get ConAgra Foods Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $871.12.

ConAgra Foods Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Feb15)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(10.9187776324*871.116666667+4452.9*0.8)/427.100
=30.61

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

ConAgra Foods Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=43.72/30.6107449665
=1.43

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

ConAgra Foods Inc Annual Data

May05May06May07May08May09May10May11May12May13May14
Projected FCF 15.9617.7321.3215.8714.2016.7119.1018.2521.9727.55

ConAgra Foods Inc Quarterly Data

Nov12Feb13May13Aug13Nov13Feb14May14Aug14Nov14Feb15
Projected FCF 21.0722.8421.9723.4925.9727.9627.5530.7832.2930.61
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