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Cisco Systems Inc (NAS:CSCO)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$32.48 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Cisco Systems Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is $32.48. The stock price of Cisco Systems Inc is $28.69. Therefore, Cisco Systems Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.9.

CSCO' s Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.58   Max: 11.29
Current: 0.88

0.58
11.29

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Cisco Systems Inc was 11.29. The lowest was 0.58. And the median was 1.30.

CSCO's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is ranked higher than
66% of the 299 Companies
in the Global Communication Equipment industry.

( Industry Median: 1.17 vs. CSCO: 0.88 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Cisco Systems Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Cisco Systems Inc Quarterly Data

201401201404201407201410201501201504201507201510201601201604
total_freecashflow 2,6112,8253,2872,2062,6182,6833,8182,5043,6082,760
201107201110201201201204201207201210201301201304201307201310
total_freecashflow 2,5802,0682,8172,6882,7922,2003,0622,8033,6692,334
201007201010201101201104
total_freecashflow 2,9231,3412,2832,701

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Cisco Systems Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $10,863.50.

Cisco Systems Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Apr16)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(10.5510033993*10863.5+62358*0.8)/5065.000
=32.48

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Cisco Systems Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=28.69/32.4792152869
=0.88

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Cisco Systems Inc Annual Data

Jul06Jul07Jul08Jul09Jul10Jul11Jul12Jul13Jul14Jul15
Projected FCF 9.6514.5217.8921.2625.0827.1027.7331.2431.7031.86

Cisco Systems Inc Quarterly Data

Jan14Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16
Projected FCF 30.6331.6631.7032.9132.4131.8931.8632.0732.4832.48
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