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CSX Corp (NAS:CSX)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$19.33 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, CSX Corp's projected FCF intrinsic value is $19.33. The stock price of CSX Corp is $28.35. Therefore, CSX Corp's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 1.5.

CSX' s Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.82   Max: 16.62
Current: 1.47

0.82
16.62

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of CSX Corp was 16.62. The lowest was 0.82. And the median was 1.67.

CSX's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is ranked lower than
56% of the 406 Companies
in the Global Railroads industry.

( Industry Median: 1.24 vs. CSX: 1.47 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here CSX Corp's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

CSX Corp Quarterly Data

201403201406201409201412201503201506201509201512201603201606
total_freecashflow 12436525614992202309205329197
201109201112201203201206201209201212201303201306201309201312
total_freecashflow 50945-2593406131240254318142
201009201012201103201106
total_freecashflow 439247116524

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get CSX Corp's FCF(6 year avg) = $944.50.

CSX Corp's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Jun16)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(9.65172836974*944.5+11612*0.8)/952.000
=19.33

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

CSX Corp's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=28.35/19.333673787
=1.47

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

CSX Corp Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
Projected FCF 5.746.749.5711.7813.5916.6618.4020.4421.7520.27

CSX Corp Quarterly Data

Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16
Projected FCF 20.4321.7322.0221.7521.3121.1420.8520.2719.7119.33
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