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GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Signs with Discover Financial Services $DFS.
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Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$138.74 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Discover Financial Services's projected FCF intrinsic value is $138.74. The stock price of Discover Financial Services is $62.59. Therefore, Discover Financial Services's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.5.

DFS' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.37   Max: 0.65
Current: 0.45

0.37
0.65

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Discover Financial Services was 0.65. The lowest was 0.37. And the median was 0.52.

DFS's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked higher than
75% of the 77 Companies
in the Global Credit Services industry.

( Industry Median: 0.89 vs. DFS: 0.45 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Discover Financial Services's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Discover Financial Services Quarterly Data

201412201503201506201509201512201603201606201609201612201703
total_freecashflow 9571,0225531,1169951,1126181,2711,2450
201205201208201211201303201306201309201312201403201406201409
total_freecashflow 4626088421,4335373889281,0866121,026
201105201108201111201202
total_freecashflow 943536756984

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Discover Financial Services's FCF(6 year avg) = $3,338.43.

Discover Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Mar17)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(12.9591140995*3338.42633333+11265*0.8)/386.000
=135.43

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Discover Financial Services's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=62.59/135.427584887
=0.46

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Discover Financial Services Annual Data

Nov07Nov08Nov09Nov10Nov11Nov12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16
Projected FCF 0.000.000.000.0065.1581.1499.03100.69112.80138.74

Discover Financial Services Quarterly Data

Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16Mar17
Projected FCF 100.69105.10105.60112.60112.80145.57139.65144.50138.740.00
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