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Dollar Tree Stores Inc (NAS:DLTR)
Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected)
$35.44 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Dollar Tree Stores Inc's DCF projected intrinsic value is $35.44. The stock price of Dollar Tree Stores Inc is $66.75. Therefore, Dollar Tree Stores Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of today is 0.0.

DLTR' s 10-Year Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Range
Min: 0.96   Max: 4.88
Current: 0

0.96
4.88

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of Dollar Tree Stores Inc was 4.88. The lowest was 0.96. And the median was 1.54.

DLTR's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) is ranked higher than
84% of the 585 Companies
in the Global Discount Stores industry.

( Industry Median: 3.52 vs. DLTR: 0.00 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Dollar Tree Stores Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Dollar Tree Stores Inc Quarterly Data

201207201210201301201304201307201310201401201404201407201410
total_freecashflow 71-632892675-1838012679-71
201001201004201007201010201101201104201107201110201201201204
total_freecashflow 307-973-363129840-1631569
200901200904200907200910
total_freecashflow 289214643

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Dollar Tree Stores Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $407.35.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc's DCF Projected Intrinsic Value for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Oct14)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(14.8626533105*407.35+1585.1*0.8)/206.600
=35.44

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc's Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value=Share Price/DCF Projected Intrinsic Value
=66.75/35.4423128075
=1.88

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value (DE), Intrinsic Value (DCF), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc Annual Data

Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14
iv_dcf_share 5.026.548.259.7012.2816.9720.4623.7327.6731.62

Dollar Tree Stores Inc Quarterly Data

Jul12Oct12Jan13Apr13Jul13Oct13Jan14Apr14Jul14Oct14
iv_dcf_share 25.9226.3527.6728.5829.6628.1431.6233.9035.250.00
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