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Express Scripts Holding Co (NAS:ESRX)
Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected)
$84.61 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Express Scripts Holding Co's DCF projected intrinsic value is $84.61. The stock price of Express Scripts Holding Co is $87.34. Therefore, Express Scripts Holding Co's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of today is 1.0.

ESRX' s 10-Year Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Range
Min: 0.93   Max: 7.15
Current: 1

0.93
7.15

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of Express Scripts Holding Co was 7.15. The lowest was 0.93. And the median was 1.48.

ESRX's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) is ranked higher than
92% of the 59 Companies
in the Global Health Care Plans industry.

( Industry Median: 1.40 vs. ESRX: 1.00 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Express Scripts Holding Co's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Express Scripts Holding Co Quarterly Data

201209201212201303201306201309201312201403201406201409201412
total_freecashflow 7542,678855-2679602,7873376443172,815
201003201006201009201012201103201106201109201112201203201206
total_freecashflow 727671360240225424913486511678
200903200906200909200912
total_freecashflow 273213350786

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Express Scripts Holding Co's FCF(6 year avg) = $3,122.58.

Express Scripts Holding Co's DCF Projected Intrinsic Value for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Dec14)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(14.8626533105*3122.58333333+20054.2*0.8)/738.100
=84.61

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Express Scripts Holding Co's Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value=Share Price/DCF Projected Intrinsic Value
=87.34/84.6135124189
=1.03

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value (DE), Intrinsic Value (DCF), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Express Scripts Holding Co Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
iv_dcf_share 11.6814.0916.9521.3528.1036.5944.7158.3570.0684.61

Express Scripts Holding Co Quarterly Data

Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14
iv_dcf_share 50.7758.3560.6860.2062.6570.0671.8273.5975.6484.61
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