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Express, Inc. (NYSE:EXPR)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$20.73 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Express, Inc.'s projected FCF intrinsic value is $20.73. The stock price of Express, Inc. is $12.06. Therefore, Express, Inc.'s Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.6.

EXPR' s Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.43   Max: 1.01
Current: 0.58

0.43
1.01

During the past 9 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Express, Inc. was 1.01. The lowest was 0.43. And the median was 0.83.

EXPR's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is ranked higher than
82% of the 478 Companies
in the Global Apparel Stores industry.

( Industry Median: 1.10 vs. EXPR: 0.58 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Express, Inc.'s FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Express, Inc. Quarterly Data

201404201407201410201501201504201507201510201601201604201607
total_freecashflow -583-35130-1830-42144-3430
201110201201201204201207201210201301201304201307201310201401
total_freecashflow 116129-0-13154-112-32131
201010201101201104201107
total_freecashflow -515618-11

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Express, Inc.'s FCF(6 year avg) = $121.76.

Express, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Jul16)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(9.52035159596*121.758333333+596.304*0.8)/78.945
=20.73

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Express, Inc.'s Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=12.06/20.7261427965
=0.58

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Express, Inc. Annual Data

Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14Jan15Jan16
Projected FCF 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0020.5319.98

Express, Inc. Quarterly Data

Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Jan16Apr16Jul16
Projected FCF 33.8118.6618.1420.5320.0320.4619.0719.9820.3020.73
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