GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Fossil Group Inc (NAS:FOSL) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
中文

Fossil Group (Fossil Group) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $10.79 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

What is Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-25), Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $10.79. The stock price of Fossil Group is $0.8079. Therefore, Fossil Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.1.

The historical rank and industry rank for Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

FOSL' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.07   Med: 0.25   Max: 1.32
Current: 0.07

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Fossil Group was 1.32. The lowest was 0.07. And the median was 0.25.

FOSL's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
97.78% of 722 companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.8 vs FOSL: 0.07

Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Fossil Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 45.56 37.17 30.49 20.63 10.79

Fossil Group Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 20.63 13.39 11.46 10.42 10.79

Competitive Comparison of Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Luxury Goods subindustry, Fossil Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Fossil Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Fossil Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fossil Group's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Fossil Group's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $38.09.

Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*38.09392+254.232*0.8)/52.479
=10.79

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Fossil Group  (NAS:FOSL) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Fossil Group's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=0.8079/10.786278550821
=0.07

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Fossil Group Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fossil Group's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Fossil Group (Fossil Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
901 S. Central Expressway, Richardson, TX, USA, 75080
Fossil Group Inc is a design, innovation and distribution company in consumer fashion accessories. The products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts and sunglasses. The reportable segments are comprised of 1) Americas segment includes sales in Canada, Latin America and the United States. 2) Europe segment includes sales in European countries, the Middle East and Africa. 3) Asia segment includes sales in Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. Each reportable operating segment includes sales to wholesale and distributor customers, and sales through Company-owned retail stores and e-commerce activities based on the location of the selling entity.
Executives
Suzanne M Coulter director 6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Kosta N Kartsotis director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres. & CEO 901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Diane L Neal director
Melissa B Lowenkron officer: SVP, General Manager, Fossil 901 S CENTRAL EXPY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Holly Briedis officer: EVP, Chief Digital Officer 901 S CENTRAL EXPY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Gregory A Mckelvey officer: Executive Vice President 2515 MCKINNEY AVE., SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
Darren E. Hart officer: Executive Vice President 2280 N. GREENVILLE AVENUE, RICHARDSON TX 75082
Steve Andrew Evans officer: Executive Vice President 901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Gail B Tifford director 901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75134
Marc Rey director 901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Sunil M Doshi officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer 5760 STATE HIGHWAY 121, SUITE 250, PLANO TX 75024
Martin Frey officer: EVP 901 S. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, RICHARDSON TX 75080
William B Chiasson director C/O LEAPFROG ENTERPRISES, INC., 6401 HOLLIS STREET, SUITE 150, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Kim Harris Jones director THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Kevin Mansell director C/O KOHLS LEGAL, N56 W170000 RIDGEWOOD DR, MENOMONEE FALLS WI 53051