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Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NAS:GMCR)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
\$0.00 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Keurig Green Mountain Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is \$0.00. The stock price of Keurig Green Mountain Inc is \$91.67. Therefore, Keurig Green Mountain Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.0.

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding

Here Keurig Green Mountain Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Keurig Green Mountain Inc Quarterly Data

 201309 201312 201403 201406 201409 201412 201503 201506 201509 201512 total_freecashflow 21 212 263 127 -220 42 91 139 72 276 201103 201106 201109 201112 201203 201206 201209 201212 201303 201306 total_freecashflow 24 -27 -282 30 135 17 -106 254 203 126 201003 201006 201009 201012 total_freecashflow 18 -38 -102 2

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Keurig Green Mountain Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = \$212.68.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

 Intrinsic Value = (Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(Dec15) * 0.8) / Shares Outstanding = (14.8626533105 * 212.680333333 + 2519.661 * 0.8) / 150.959 = 34.29

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

 Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = Share Price / Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = 91.67 / 34.2922439887 = 2.67

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Related Terms

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Keurig Green Mountain Inc Annual Data

 Sep06 Sep07 Sep08 Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Projected FCF 0.85 1.05 0.27 2.94 0.96 2.56 5.41 17.24 27.28 29.14

Keurig Green Mountain Inc Quarterly Data

 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Projected FCF 17.24 21.03 27.68 29.14 27.28 26.72 24.75 28.46 29.14 34.29
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