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The Hershey Co (The Hershey Co) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $106.80 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)


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What is The Hershey Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-25), The Hershey Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $106.80. The stock price of The Hershey Co is $188.14. Therefore, The Hershey Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.8.

The historical rank and industry rank for The Hershey Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

HSY' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.73   Med: 2.42   Max: 2.88
Current: 1.76

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of The Hershey Co was 2.88. The lowest was 1.73. And the median was 2.42.

HSY's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
67.73% of 1224 companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 1.125 vs HSY: 1.76

The Hershey Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for The Hershey Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

The Hershey Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

The Hershey Co Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 54.91 65.95 75.31 95.04 106.80

The Hershey Co Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 95.04 100.48 98.04 103.24 106.80

Competitive Comparison of The Hershey Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Confectioners subindustry, The Hershey Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


The Hershey Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, The Hershey Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Hershey Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



The Hershey Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get The Hershey Co's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $1,509.99.

The Hershey Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(12.352161231452*1509.98592+4099.086*0.8)/205.349
=106.80

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


The Hershey Co  (NYSE:HSY) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

The Hershey Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=188.14/106.79797973724
=1.76

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


The Hershey Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Hershey Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


The Hershey Co (The Hershey Co) Business Description

Address
19 East Chocolate Avenue, Hershey, PA, USA, 17033
Hershey is a leading confectionery manufacturer in the U.S. (around a $25 billion market), controlling around 45% of the domestic chocolate space (per IRI, as cited by Hershey). Beyond its namesake label, the firm's mix has expanded over the last 85 years and now consists of 100 brands, including Reese's, Kit Kat, Kisses, and Ice Breakers. Hershey's products are sold in about 80 countries, albeit with just a high-single-digit percentage of sales coming from markets outside the U.S., including Brazil, India, and Mexico. The firm has sought inorganic opportunities to extend its reach beyond its core confection business, adding Amplify Snack Brands and its Skinny Pop ready-to-eat popcorn to its mix, Pirate Brands, and Dot's Pretzels over the past few years.
Executives
Charles R Raup officer: President, U.S. 19 EAST CHOCOLATE AVENUE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Steven E Voskuil officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer 5405 WINDWARD PARKWAY, ALPHARETTA GA 30004
Deepak Bhatia officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 19 EAST CHOCOLATE AVENUE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Pamela M Arway director 601 HAWAII ST., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Michele Buck officer: SVP, Pres. US Snacks THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 100 CRYSTAL A DRIVE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Hershey Trust Co Trustee In Trust For Milton Hershey School 10 percent owner 100 MANSION ROAD EAST, P O BOX 445, HERSHEY PA 17033
Jason Reiman officer: SVP Chief Supply Chain Officer THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 19 EAST CHOCOLATE AVENUE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Maria T Kraus director THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 19 EAST CHOCOLATE AVENUE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Rohit Grover officer: President, International THE HERSHEY COMPANY, 19 EAST CHOCOLATE AVENUE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Jennifer Mccalman officer: Chief Accounting Officer 19 EAST CHOCOLATE AVENUE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Robert Malcolm director C/O LOGITECH INTERNATIONAL S.A., RUE DU SABLON 2-4, MORGES V8 1110
Anthony J. Palmer director P.O. BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261-9100
Hershey Trust Co 10 percent owner 100 MANSION ROAD EAST, HERSHEY PA 17033
Christopher M Scalia officer: SVP, CHRO 19 EAST CHOCOLATE AVENUE, HERSHEY PA 17033
Kristen J Riggs officer: SVP, Chief Growth Officer 19 EAST CHOCOLATE AVENUE, HERSHEY PA 17033