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Key Energy Services Inc (NYSE:KEG)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
\$-3.29 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Key Energy Services Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is \$-3.29. The stock price of Key Energy Services Inc is \$0.16. Therefore, Key Energy Services Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.0.

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Key Energy Services Inc was 7.62. The lowest was 0.20. And the median was 1.38.

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding

Here Key Energy Services Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Key Energy Services Inc Quarterly Data

 201312 201403 201406 201409 201412 201503 201506 201509 201512 201603 total_freecashflow 18.5 17.2 20.7 -19.9 -15.4 -21.7 -12.2 -25.9 -3.4 -32.8 201106 201109 201112 201203 201206 201209 201212 201303 201306 201309 total_freecashflow -0.9 5.3 -27.9 -95.1 -22.4 -16.9 56.8 -17.6 -8.3 71.9 201006 201009 201012 201103 total_freecashflow -36.6 -7.4 -39.9 -147.4

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Key Energy Services Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = \$-60.18.

Key Energy Services Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

 Intrinsic Value = (Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(Mar16) * 0.8) / Shares Outstanding = (9.52035159596 * -60.1766666667 + 58.87 * 0.8) / 160.047 = -3.29

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Key Energy Services Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

 Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = Share Price / Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = 0.16 / -3.28532883803 =

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Related Terms

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Key Energy Services Inc Annual Data

 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Projected FCF 8.56 9.79 12.69 10.18 10.20 7.36 6.02 6.26 3.70 -2.27

Key Energy Services Inc Quarterly Data

 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Projected FCF 6.26 5.92 5.35 4.59 3.70 2.27 1.76 -1.83 -2.27 -3.29
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