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MBIA Inc (NYSE:MBI)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$-36.31 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, MBIA Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is $-36.31. The stock price of MBIA Inc is $7.36. Therefore, MBIA Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.0.

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of MBIA Inc was 7.79. The lowest was 0.14. And the median was 0.61.


Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here MBIA Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

MBIA Inc Quarterly Data

201312201403201406201409201412201503201506201509201512201603
total_freecashflow 0.0-425.026.040.013.0-10.042.07.00.00.0
201106201109201112201203201206201209201212201303201306201309
total_freecashflow -136.0-520.0-1,429.0-234.0-560.0-166.0-74.00.00.00.0
201006201009201012201103
total_freecashflow 127.5-255.0-836.0-547.0

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get MBIA Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = $-822.75.

MBIA Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Mar16)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(9.52035159596*-822.749833333+3627*0.8)/135.815
=-36.31

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

MBIA Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=7.36/-36.3087117686
=

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

MBIA Inc Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
Projected FCF 101.2054.9314.834.77-11.12-43.50-46.34-47.02-45.63-32.28

MBIA Inc Quarterly Data

Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16
Projected FCF -47.02-51.34-51.17-51.28-45.63-43.67-43.07-41.83-32.28-36.31
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