Switch to:
MOD-PAC Corporation (NAS:MPAC)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
\$0.00 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, MOD-PAC Corporation's projected FCF intrinsic value is \$0.00. The stock price of MOD-PAC Corporation is \$9.27. Therefore, MOD-PAC Corporation's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.0.

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding

Here MOD-PAC Corporation's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

MOD-PAC Corporation Quarterly Data

 201103 201106 201109 201112 201203 201206 201209 201212 201303 201306 total_freecashflow -0.77 0.81 -0.2 1.56 -3.00 -0.57 1.37 1.86 0.02 0.21 200809 200812 200903 200906 200909 200912 201003 201006 201009 201012 total_freecashflow 0.25 0.63 -1.06 -0.12 0.83 2.13 -0.42 -0.23 -0.37 1.61 200709 200712 200803 200806 total_freecashflow -1.65 1.08 -0.48 -1.26

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get MOD-PAC Corporation's FCF(6 year avg) = \$0.38.

MOD-PAC Corporation's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

 Intrinsic Value = (Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(Jun13) * 0.8) / Shares Outstanding = (9.52035159596 * 0.376 + 28.615 * 0.8) / 3.489 = 7.59

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

MOD-PAC Corporation's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

 Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = Share Price / Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = 9.27 / 7.58717460593 = 1.22

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Related Terms

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

MOD-PAC Corporation Annual Data

 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Projected FCF 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.64 12.16 1.41 6.08 6.57

MOD-PAC Corporation Quarterly Data

 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Projected FCF 4.44 5.38 4.46 6.08 6.19 5.29 5.99 6.57 7.43 7.59
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to \$400 per referral. ( Learn More)