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MOD-PAC Corporation (NAS:MPAC)
Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected)
$0.00 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, MOD-PAC Corporation's DCF projected intrinsic value is $0.00. The stock price of MOD-PAC Corporation is $9.27. Therefore, MOD-PAC Corporation's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of today is 0.0.

MPAC' s 10-Year Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Range
Min: 0   Max: 0
Current: 0

MPAC's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) is ranked lower than
57% of the 301 Companies
in the Global Packaging & Containers industry.

( Industry Median: 2.02 vs. MPAC: 0.00 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here MOD-PAC Corporation's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

MOD-PAC Corporation Quarterly Data

201103201106201109201112201203201206201209201212201303201306
total_freecashflow -0.770.81-0.201.56-3.00-0.571.371.860.020.21
200809200812200903200906200909200912201003201006201009201012
total_freecashflow 0.250.63-1.06-0.120.832.13-0.42-0.23-0.371.61
200709200712200803200806
total_freecashflow -1.651.08-0.48-1.26

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get MOD-PAC Corporation's FCF(6 year avg) = $0.38.

MOD-PAC Corporation's DCF Projected Intrinsic Value for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Jun13)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(9.52035159596*0.376+28.615*0.8)/3.489
=7.59

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

MOD-PAC Corporation's Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value=Share Price/DCF Projected Intrinsic Value
=9.27/7.58717460593
=1.22

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value (DE), Intrinsic Value (DCF), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

MOD-PAC Corporation Annual Data

Dec03Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12
iv_dcf_share 0.000.000.000.000.0010.6412.161.416.086.57

MOD-PAC Corporation Quarterly Data

Mar11Jun11Sep11Dec11Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13
iv_dcf_share 4.445.384.466.086.195.295.996.577.437.59
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