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National CineMedia (National CineMedia) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $6.46 (As of Apr. 25, 2024)


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What is National CineMedia Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-25), National CineMedia's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $6.46. The stock price of National CineMedia is $4.63. Therefore, National CineMedia's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.7.

The historical rank and industry rank for National CineMedia's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

NCMI' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.64   Med: 1.35   Max: 2.42
Current: 0.72

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of National CineMedia was 2.42. The lowest was 0.64. And the median was 1.35.

NCMI's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
59.6% of 604 companies
in the Media - Diversified industry
Industry Median: 0.88 vs NCMI: 0.72

National CineMedia Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for National CineMedia's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

National CineMedia Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

National CineMedia Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 84.07 56.08 11.61 -17.80 6.46

National CineMedia Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -17.80 -14.66 19.31 10.08 6.46

Competitive Comparison of National CineMedia's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Advertising Agencies subindustry, National CineMedia's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


National CineMedia's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, National CineMedia's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where National CineMedia's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



National CineMedia Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get National CineMedia's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $29.18.

National CineMedia's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*29.184+434.5*0.8)/96.837
=6.46

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


National CineMedia  (NAS:NCMI) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

National CineMedia's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=4.63/6.4587083550362
=0.72

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


National CineMedia Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of National CineMedia's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


National CineMedia (National CineMedia) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6300 South Syracuse Way, Suite 300, Centennial, CO, USA, 80111
National CineMedia Inc is a holding company that operates a digital in-theatre media network across North America. The company displays ads in movie theaters, online, and through mobile video. National CineMedia's most important operation is First Look, its prefeature programming that plays before a movie and related trailers start. The company also operates an online and mobile network in combination with movie theaters that include movie content, trailers, showtimes, and other features. The company derives revenue from the sale of advertising to national, regional and local businesses in Noovie show, cinema advertising and entertainment show seen on movie screens across the U.S.
Executives
Scott D Felenstein officer: EVP and Chief Revenue Officer C/O NATIONAL CINEMEDIA, INC., 6300 S. SYRACUSE WAY, SUITE 300, CENTENNIAL CO 80111
Ronnie Y. Ng officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O NATIONAL CINEMEDIA, INC., 6300 S SYRACUSE WAY, SUITE 300, CENTENNIAL CO 80111
Maria Vg Woods officer: EVP, General Counsel C/O NATIONAL CINEMEDIA, INC., 6300 S SYRACUSE WAY, SUITE 300, CENTENNIAL CO 80111
Blantyre Fund Iii (gp) Ltd 10 percent owner UGLAND HOUSE, PO BOX 309, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Joe Marchese director C/O CLEAR CHANNEL OUTDOOR HOLDINGS, INC., 4830 NORTH LOOP 1604W, SUITE 111, SAN ANTONIO TX 78249
Blantyre Capital Ltd 10 percent owner C/O BLANTYRE CAPITAL LIMITED, 52 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6LX
Jean-philippe Maheu director C/O NATIONAL CINEMEDIA, INC., 6300 S. SYRACUSE WAY, SUITE 300, CENTENNIAL CO 80111
Tiago Lourenco director C/O NATIONAL CINEMEDIA, INC., 6300 S. SYRACUSE WAY, SUITE 300, CENTENNIAL CO 80111
Nicholas Bell director C/O NATIONAL CINEMEDIA, INC., 6300 S. SYRACUSE WAY, SUITE 300, CENTENNIAL CO 80111
Bssf Ii Ireland Dac 10 percent owner IVEAGH COURT, HARCOURT ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, BLOCK E, DUBLIN L2 2
Blantyre Fund Ii (gp) Ltd 10 percent owner UGLAND HOUSE, PO BOX 309, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Blantyre Mulanje Ii Gp Ltd 10 percent owner UGLAND HOUSE, PO BOX 309, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Iii Dac Bssf 10 percent owner IVEAGH COURT, HARCOURT ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, BLOCK E, DUBLIN L2 2
Lauren Zalaznick director 425 LEXINGTON AVENUE, (ATTN: ANDREA ANDREZO), NEW YORK NY 10017
Mubashir Mukadam 10 percent owner C/O BLANTYRE CAPITAL LIMITED, 52 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6LX

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