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Nexen, Inc. (NYSE:NXY)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
\$0.00 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Nexen, Inc.'s projected FCF intrinsic value is \$0.00. The stock price of Nexen, Inc. is \$27.41. Therefore, Nexen, Inc.'s Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.0.

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding

Here Nexen, Inc.'s FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Nexen, Inc. Quarterly Data

 201009 201012 201103 201106 201109 201112 201203 201206 201209 201212 total_freecashflow 240 -224 289 546 -394 -346 -242 397 -323 -529 200803 200806 200809 200812 200903 200906 200909 200912 201003 201006 total_freecashflow 381 516 230 112 -565 -538 4 -18 299 -357 200703 200706 200709 200712 total_freecashflow -310 -224 191 -165

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Nexen, Inc.'s FCF(6 year avg) = \$-172.20.

Nexen, Inc.'s Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

 Intrinsic Value = (Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(Dec12) * 0.8) / Shares Outstanding = (9.52035159596 * -172.199124178 + 8893.93939394 * 0.8) / 531.000 = 10.31

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Nexen, Inc.'s Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

 Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = Share Price / Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = 27.41 / 10.3121568898 = 2.66

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Related Terms

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Nexen, Inc. Annual Data

 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Projected FCF 9.47 22.36 10.22 5.22 -1.56 7.40 4.26 6.49 7.59 8.94

Nexen, Inc. Quarterly Data

 Sep10 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Projected FCF 6.41 6.49 6.64 8.72 7.97 7.59 7.10 9.95 9.62 8.94
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