Alstom (Alstom) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

Alstom Annual Data
	Trend	Mar14	Mar15	Mar16	Mar17	Mar18	Mar19	Mar20	Mar21	Mar22	Mar23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF							-0.07	-1.14	0.95	-0.01	1.68

Alstom Semi-Annual Data
	Mar14	Sep14	Mar15	Sep15	Mar16	Sep16	Mar17	Sep17	Mar18	Sep18	Mar19	Sep19	Mar20	Sep20	Mar21	Sep21	Mar22	Sep22	Mar23	Sep23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF																-	-0.01	-	1.68	-

For the Railroads subindustry, Alstom's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Alstom's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alstom's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.

Alstom Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Alstom's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $-148.03.

Alstom's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Alstom  (OTCPK:ALSMY) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Alstom's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Alstom Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Alstom (Alstom) Business Description