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Alimentation Couche-Tard (Alimentation Couche-Tard) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $42.28 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-23), Alimentation Couche-Tard's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $42.28. The stock price of Alimentation Couche-Tard is $57.05. Therefore, Alimentation Couche-Tard's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.4.

The historical rank and industry rank for Alimentation Couche-Tard's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

ANCTF' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.03   Med: 1.37   Max: 2.13
Current: 1.35

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Alimentation Couche-Tard was 2.13. The lowest was 1.03. And the median was 1.37.

ANCTF's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
70.65% of 719 companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.8 vs ANCTF: 1.35

Alimentation Couche-Tard Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alimentation Couche-Tard's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Alimentation Couche-Tard Annual Data
Trend Apr14 Apr15 Apr16 Apr17 Apr18 Apr19 Apr20 Apr21 Apr22 Apr23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 20.07 24.32 33.21 36.30 40.66

Alimentation Couche-Tard Quarterly Data
Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 37.86 40.66 42.58 40.91 43.56

Competitive Comparison

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Alimentation Couche-Tard's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alimentation Couche-Tard Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Alimentation Couche-Tard's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alimentation Couche-Tard's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Alimentation Couche-Tard Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Alimentation Couche-Tard's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $2,289.39.

Alimentation Couche-Tard's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Jan24)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(13.59589104257*2289.392+13299.5*0.8)/963.800
=43.33

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Alimentation Couche-Tard  (OTCPK:ANCTF) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Alimentation Couche-Tard's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=57.05/43.334638084386
=1.32

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Alimentation Couche-Tard Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Alimentation Couche-Tard (Alimentation Couche-Tard) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4204 Boulevard Industriel, Laval, QC, CAN, H7L 0E3
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc operates a network of convenience stores across North America, Ireland, Scandinavia, Poland, the Baltics, and Russia. The company primarily generates income through the sale of tobacco products, groceries, beverages, fresh food, quick service restaurants, car wash services, other retail products and services, road transportation fuel, stationary energy, marine fuel, and chemicals. In addition, the company operates more stores under the Circle K banner in other countries such as China, Egypt, and Malaysia. Its operation is geographically divided into U.S., Europe, and Canada. Revenue from external customers fall mainly into three categories: merchandise and services, road transportation fuel, and other.