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Splunk Inc (NAS:SPLK)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
\$0.00 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Splunk Inc's projected FCF intrinsic value is \$0.00. The stock price of Splunk Inc is \$53.68. Therefore, Splunk Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.0.

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding

Here Splunk Inc's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Splunk Inc Quarterly Data

 201404 201407 201410 201501 201504 201507 201510 201601 201604 201607 total_freecashflow 14.7 6.4 20.2 48.8 22.2 10.8 21.1 50.2 32.0 7.8 201110 201201 201204 201207 201210 201301 201304 201307 201310 201401 total_freecashflow 4.5 7.9 9.7 2.2 4.2 21.4 18.6 4.3 9.3 32.4 201001 201101 201104 201107 total_freecashflow 0.9 5.8 -4 -2

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Splunk Inc's FCF(6 year avg) = \$58.23.

Splunk Inc's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

 Intrinsic Value = (Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(Jul16) * 0.8) / Shares Outstanding = ( * 58.2288333333 + 829.141 * 0.8) / 133.041 = 4.99

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Splunk Inc's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

 Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = Share Price / Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = 53.68 / 4.98577731677 = 10.77

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Related Terms

Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Splunk Inc Annual Data

 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16 Projected FCF 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Splunk Inc Quarterly Data

 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Projected FCF 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
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