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Seagate Technology PLC (NAS:STX)
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
$87.19 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, Seagate Technology PLC's projected FCF intrinsic value is $87.19. The stock price of Seagate Technology PLC is $48.15. Therefore, Seagate Technology PLC's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of today is 0.6.

STX' s 10-Year Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Range
Min: 0.2   Max: 1.2
Current: 0.56

0.2
1.2

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio of Seagate Technology PLC was 1.20. The lowest was 0.20. And the median was 0.78.

STX's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is ranked higher than
88% of the 893 Companies
in the Global Data Storage industry.

( Industry Median: 1.29 vs. STX: 0.56 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here Seagate Technology PLC's FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

Seagate Technology PLC Quarterly Data

201212201303201306201309201312201403201406201409201412201503
total_freecashflow 6804522605217133194464301,228215
201006201009201012201103201106201109201112201203201206201209
total_freecashflow 57-11330570159-585768021,306869
200906200909200912201003
total_freecashflow 112189650397

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Seagate Technology PLC's FCF(6 year avg) = $1,764.17.

Seagate Technology PLC's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Mar15)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(14.8626533105*1764.16666667+3191*0.8)/330.000
=87.19

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

Seagate Technology PLC's Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=48.15/87.1909016623
=0.55

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based), Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Seagate Technology PLC Annual Data

Jun05Jun06Jun07Jun08Jun09Jun10Jun11Jun12Jun13Jun14
Projected FCF 0.000.000.0023.0914.7319.2618.7732.1853.0368.72

Seagate Technology PLC Quarterly Data

Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15
Projected FCF 46.1651.5653.0355.1660.0463.6568.7274.5985.5687.19
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