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United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) (NYSE:UPS)
Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected)
$51.79 (As of Today)

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today, United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)'s DCF projected intrinsic value is $51.79. The stock price of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is $98.07. Therefore, United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)'s Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of today is 1.9.

UPS' s 10-Year Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Range
Min: 1.78   Max: 3.73
Current: 1.9

1.78
3.73

During the past 13 years, the highest Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) Ratio of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) was 3.73. The lowest was 1.78. And the median was 2.07.

UPS's Price to Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected) is ranked higher than
52% of the 458 Companies
in the Global Integrated Shipping & Logistics industry.

( Industry Median: 1.30 vs. UPS: 1.90 )

Definition

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value (DCF), or Discounted Earnings (DCE) Intrinsic Value (DE) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Discounted Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of total equity.

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + 0.8*Total Equity(most recent))/Shares Outstanding

In the case of negative total equity, the following formula is used (see the Total Equity section for the reason):

Value = ((Growth Multiple)*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) + Total Equity(most recent)/0.8)/Shares Outstanding


Here United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)'s FCF(6 year avg) is calculate as

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Quarterly Data

201109201112201203201206201209201212201303201306201309201312
total_freecashflow 1,4421,2631,8521,0495991,5631,3051,1361,0141,784
200903200906200909200912201003201006201009201012201103201106
total_freecashflow 1,8146705646351,2661,082564-4668791,484
200803200806200809200812
total_freecashflow 2,6449971,199950

Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)'s FCF(6 year avg) = $4,548.17.

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)'s DCF Projected Intrinsic Value for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow(6 year avg)+Total Equity(Dec13)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding
=(9.52035159596*4548.16666667+6474*0.8)/936.000
=51.79

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy medium after taking the above ideas into consideration. Learn more here.

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)'s Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value Ratio for today is calculated as

Price to DCF Projected Intrinsic Value=Share Price/DCF Projected Intrinsic Value
=98.07/51.7941728458
=1.89

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.


Related Terms

Intrinsic Value (DE), Intrinsic Value (DCF), Free Cash Flow


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
iv_dcf_share 22.9034.1140.9428.9029.4332.2932.2034.6937.4051.79

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Quarterly Data

Sep11Dec11Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13
iv_dcf_share 36.5534.6935.0336.0238.1337.4036.1437.0537.6051.79
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