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Astoria Financial Corporation (NYSE:AF)
Beneish M-Score
-2.53 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Astoria Financial Corporation has a M-score of -2.53 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

AF' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0   Max: 0
Current: -2.53

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Astoria Financial Corporation was 0.00. The lowest was 0.00. And the median was 0.00.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Astoria Financial Corporation for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9609+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 0.9999+0.892 * 0.9943+0.115 * 0.9609
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0252+4.679 * -0.0013-0.327 * 0.982
=-2.53

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec15) TTM:Last Year (Dec14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $35.0 Mil.
Revenue was 98.153 + 97.586 + 100.492 + 98.654 = $394.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was 98.153 + 97.586 + 100.492 + 98.654 = $394.9 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $15,076.2 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $109.8 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $14.8 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $171.7 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $3,964.2 Mil.
Net Income was 18.431 + 18.906 + 31.431 + 19.307 = $88.1 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 14.282 + 44.447 + 19.704 + 28.776 = $107.2 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $36.6 Mil.
Revenue was 97.505 + 98.373 + 99.619 + 101.639 = $397.1 Mil.
Gross Profit was 97.505 + 98.373 + 99.619 + 101.639 = $397.1 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $15,640.0 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $111.6 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $14.4 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $168.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $4,187.7 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(34.996 / 394.885) / (36.628 / 397.136)
=0.08862327 / 0.09223037
=0.9609

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(97.586 / 397.136) / (98.153 / 394.885)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 109.758) / 15076.211) / (1 - (0 + 111.622) / 15640.021)
=0.99271979 / 0.99286305
=0.9999

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=394.885 / 397.136
=0.9943

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(14.394 / (14.394 + 111.622)) / (14.808 / (14.808 + 109.758))
=0.11422359 / 0.11887674
=0.9609

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(171.689 / 394.885) / (168.426 / 397.136)
=0.43478228 / 0.42410157
=1.0252

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((3964.222 + 0) / 15076.211) / ((4187.691 + 0) / 15640.021)
=0.26294551 / 0.26775482
=0.982

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(88.075 - 0 - 107.209) / 15076.211
=-0.0013

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Astoria Financial Corporation has a M-score of -2.53 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Astoria Financial Corporation Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 1.18261.18251.01260.66410.82920.97130.94450.93191.00060.9609
GMI 1111111111
AQI 11.00031.00010.99960.99931.000310.999910.9999
SGI 0.82920.84970.99331.25091.01220.86320.94860.97620.96520.9943
DEPI 1.21962.15750.40832.86740.9580.8790.70331.6380.67450.9609
SGAI 1.16771.25311.02191.030.99291.31411.03180.94141.03341.0204
LVGI 1.13381.45521.1770.89090.91780.92931.39491.32011.02220.982
TATA -0.0019-0.0038-0.0073-0.0069-0.0106-0.0094-0.0081-0.0105-0.0024-0.0013
M-score -2.52-2.52-2.64-2.35-2.65-2.72-2.78-2.63-2.57-2.53

Astoria Financial Corporation Quarterly Data

Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15
DSRI 0.85740.93190.91730.95790.97871.00061.00750.99421.00070.9609
GMI 1111111111
AQI 0.99980.9999110.999910.99990.99980.99980.9999
SGI 0.99780.97620.98740.97490.96980.96520.95950.97070.97630.9943
DEPI 0.74661.6381.54371.43431.27890.67450.69680.7990.80040.9609
SGAI 0.92140.94140.99161.05751.11540.98440.9840.92260.87061.0252
LVGI 0.82541.32011.02281.04160.9411.02221.0070.99040.98360.982
TATA -0.0078-0.0105-0.0071-0.0066-0.0054-0.0024-0.0015-0.001-0.0001-0.0013
M-score -2.61-2.63-2.54-2.55-2.52-2.56-2.55-2.52-2.50-2.53
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