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Astoria Financial Corporation (NYSE:AF)
Beneish M-Score
-2.51 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Astoria Financial Corporation has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

AF' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.32   Max: -0.73
Current: -2.51

-4.32
-0.73

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Astoria Financial Corporation was -0.73. The lowest was -4.32. And the median was -2.56.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Astoria Financial Corporation for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9794+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1+0.892 * 0.9917+0.115 * 0.9309
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0306+4.679 * -0.0012-0.327 * 0.9543
=-2.51

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar16) TTM:Last Year (Mar15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $36.1 Mil.
Revenue was 94.653 + 98.153 + 97.586 + 100.492 = $390.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was 94.653 + 98.153 + 97.586 + 100.492 = $390.9 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $15,023.5 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $108.2 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $15.8 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $179.1 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,444.4 Mil.
Net Income was 18.565 + 18.431 + 18.906 + 31.431 = $87.3 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 27.404 + 14.282 + 44.447 + 19.704 = $105.8 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $37.2 Mil.
Revenue was 98.654 + 97.505 + 98.373 + 99.619 = $394.2 Mil.
Gross Profit was 98.654 + 97.505 + 98.373 + 99.619 = $394.2 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $15,535.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $111.6 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $15.0 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $175.2 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,648.8 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(36.139 / 390.884) / (37.208 / 394.151)
=0.09245454 / 0.09440037
=0.9794

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(98.153 / 394.151) / (94.653 / 390.884)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 108.172) / 15023.537) / (1 - (0 + 111.562) / 15535.572)
=0.99279983 / 0.99281893
=1

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=390.884 / 394.151
=0.9917

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(14.973 / (14.973 + 111.562)) / (15.752 / (15.752 + 108.172))
=0.1183309 / 0.12711016
=0.9309

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(179.074 / 390.884) / (175.211 / 394.151)
=0.45812568 / 0.4445276
=1.0306

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2444.354 + 0) / 15023.537) / ((2648.824 + 0) / 15535.572)
=0.16270163 / 0.17050058
=0.9543

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(87.333 - 0 - 105.837) / 15023.537
=-0.0012

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Astoria Financial Corporation has a M-score of -2.51 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Astoria Financial Corporation Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 1.18261.12611.06330.66410.82920.97130.94450.93191.00060.9609
GMI 1111111111
AQI 11.00031.00010.99960.99931.000310.999910.9999
SGI 0.82920.89220.94591.25091.01220.86320.94860.97620.96520.9943
DEPI 1.21960.89672.49150.36922.93330.8790.95410.99820.8160.9609
SGAI 1.16771.1791.08611.030.99291.31411.03180.94141.03341.0204
LVGI 1.13381.45521.1770.89090.91780.92931.39491.32011.02220.982
TATA -0.0019-0.0038-0.0073-0.0069-0.0106-0.0094-0.0081-0.0105-0.0024-0.0013
M-score -2.52-2.67-2.41-2.64-2.43-2.72-2.75-2.71-2.56-2.53

Astoria Financial Corporation Quarterly Data

Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16
DSRI 0.93190.91730.95790.97871.00061.00750.99421.00070.96090.9794
GMI 1111111111
AQI 0.9999110.999910.99990.99980.99980.99991
SGI 0.97620.98740.97490.96980.96520.95950.97070.97630.99430.9917
DEPI 1.6381.54371.43431.27890.67450.69680.7990.80040.96090.9309
SGAI 0.94140.99161.05751.11540.98441.02920.96530.91111.07121.0306
LVGI 1.32011.02281.04160.9411.02221.0070.99040.98360.9820.9543
TATA -0.0105-0.0071-0.0066-0.0054-0.0024-0.0015-0.001-0.0001-0.0013-0.0012
M-score -2.63-2.54-2.55-2.52-2.56-2.56-2.53-2.50-2.54-2.51
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