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GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with American International Group Inc $AIG.
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American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG)
Beneish M-Score
-2.57 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

American International Group Inc has a M-score of -2.57 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

AIG' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -6.32   Max: -1.35
Current: -2.57

-6.32
-1.35

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of American International Group Inc was -1.35. The lowest was -6.32. And the median was -2.51.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of American International Group Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0823+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1+0.892 * 0.8879+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.2008+4.679 * -0.004-0.327 * 1.025
=-2.57

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Sep16) TTM:Last Year (Sep15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $11,606 Mil.
Revenue was 12854 + 14724 + 11779 + 13831 = $53,188 Mil.
Gross Profit was 12854 + 14724 + 11779 + 13831 = $53,188 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0 Mil.
Total Assets was $514,568 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $3,941 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $11,597 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $32,277 Mil.
Net Income was 462 + 1913 + -183 + -1841 = $351 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 1182 + 1539 + -968 + 643 = $2,396 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $12,078 Mil.
Revenue was 12822 + 15699 + 15975 + 15410 = $59,906 Mil.
Gross Profit was 12822 + 15699 + 15975 + 15410 = $59,906 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0 Mil.
Total Assets was $501,985 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $4,578 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $10,878 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $30,719 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(11606 / 53188) / (12078 / 59906)
=0.21820711 / 0.20161586
=1.0823

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(59906 / 59906) / (53188 / 53188)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 0) / 514568) / (1 - (0 + 0) / 501985)
=1 / 1
=1

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=53188 / 59906
=0.8879

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(4578 / (4578 + 0)) / (3941 / (3941 + 0))
=1 / 1
=1

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(11597 / 53188) / (10878 / 59906)
=0.2180379 / 0.18158448
=1.2008

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((32277 + 0) / 514568) / ((30719 + 0) / 501985)
=0.0627264 / 0.06119506
=1.025

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(351 - 0 - 2396) / 514568
=-0.004

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

American International Group Inc has a M-score of -2.57 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

American International Group Inc Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI
GMI
AQI
SGI
DEPI
SGAI
LVGI
TATA
M-score

American International Group Inc Quarterly Data

Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16
DSRI 1.04580.99430.99920.97141.01351.0511.0951.09311.0823
GMI 111111111
AQI 111111111
SGI 0.92280.93510.94330.96950.90030.90560.84290.83340.8879
DEPI 111111111
SGAI 19.57211.07990.84120.61590.59781.21251.31681.35271.2008
LVGI 0.87980.78610.8510.820.89060.97551.03411.0971.025
TATA 0.00490.00490.00720.00640.0036-0.0014-0.0039-0.0065-0.004
M-score -5.64-2.46-2.42-2.38-2.43-2.55-2.62-2.67-2.57
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