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Allegiant Travel Co (NAS:ALGT)
Beneish M-Score
-3.00 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co has a M-score of -3.01 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ALGT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.42   Max: -1.88
Current: -3

-3.42
-1.88

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Allegiant Travel Co was -1.88. The lowest was -3.42. And the median was -3.00.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Allegiant Travel Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9598+0.528 * 0.7999+0.404 * 1.0276+0.892 * 1.1101+0.115 * 1.0176
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.001+4.679 * -0.1074-0.327 * 0.9727
=-3.01

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec15) TTM:Last Year (Dec14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $15 Mil.
Revenue was 310.89 + 299.956 + 322.102 + 329.241 = $1,262 Mil.
Gross Profit was 199.868 + 179.861 + 194.826 + 213.653 = $788 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $395 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,352 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $886 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $98 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $303 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $388 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $568 Mil.
Net Income was 56.709 + 44.458 + 54.339 + 64.867 = $220 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.019 + 0.067 + 0.055 + -0.004 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 97.757 + 36.865 + 67.785 + 162.96 = $365 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $14 Mil.
Revenue was 278.952 + 265.029 + 290.541 + 302.524 = $1,137 Mil.
Gross Profit was 155.639 + 126.539 + 144.462 + 141.313 = $568 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $434 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,235 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $739 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $83 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $273 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $362 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $536 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(15.146 / 1262.189) / (14.216 / 1137.046)
=0.01199979 / 0.01250257
=0.9598

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(179.861 / 1137.046) / (199.868 / 1262.189)
=0.4994987 / 0.624477
=0.7999

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (395.243 + 885.942) / 1351.662) / (1 - (433.627 + 738.783) / 1235.08)
=0.05214099 / 0.05074165
=1.0276

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1262.189 / 1137.046
=1.1101

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(83.409 / (83.409 + 738.783)) / (98.097 / (98.097 + 885.942))
=0.10144711 / 0.09968812
=1.0176

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(302.859 / 1262.189) / (272.565 / 1137.046)
=0.23994742 / 0.23971326
=1.001

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((567.609 + 388.468) / 1351.662) / ((536.189 + 361.954) / 1235.08)
=0.70733438 / 0.72719419
=0.9727

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(220.373 - 0.137 - 365.367) / 1351.662
=-0.1074

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co has a M-score of -3.01 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Allegiant Travel Co Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.46441.06620.43911.21140.8831.39571.24180.82520.73880.9598
GMI 0.91340.88790.8770.73911.14741.17040.92320.90230.93430.79
AQI 0.54871.20620.38871.16612.77431.09761.24621.31690.96951.0276
SGI 1.83661.48171.39781.1071.18941.1741.16631.09621.14141.1101
DEPI 0.73970.87360.83390.80961.09410.9640.85281.0581.31091.0176
SGAI 0.73860.74114.85531.11310.98850.76590.93561.40880.82511.2959
LVGI 0.73060.90110.89570.90150.98121.25640.9811.23821.34020.9727
TATA -0.0713-0.1121-0.0856-0.1106-0.0644-0.1139-0.1231-0.1129-0.1484-0.1074
M-score -2.69-2.43-4.00-2.79-1.91-2.41-2.63-3.15-3.38-3.06

Allegiant Travel Co Quarterly Data

Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16
DSRI 0.82521.17421.10450.88980.73880.63640.60730.84840.9598
GMI 0.90230.94220.93430.93620.92360.83970.81620.79080.7999
AQI 1.31690.85050.24732.56610.96950.94272.94170.58511.0276
SGI 1.09621.08681.09491.11841.14141.13461.12721.12191.1101
DEPI 1.0581.10871.49511.33651.31091.33460.94930.94051.0176
SGAI 1.40881.24491.16581.12221.01381.07851.06951.00441.001
LVGI 1.23821.2281.51961.48471.34021.29271.07171.02250.9727
TATA -0.1129-0.113-0.0767-0.1122-0.1484-0.1603-0.1634-0.1334-0.1074
M-score -3.15-2.97-3.14-2.54-3.42-3.62-2.85-3.43-3.01
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