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Allegiant Travel Co (NAS:ALGT)
Beneish M-Score
-2.40 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co has a M-score of -2.40 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ALGT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.63   Max: -1.59
Current: -2.4

-3.63
-1.59

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Allegiant Travel Co was -1.59. The lowest was -3.63. And the median was -2.95.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Allegiant Travel Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.3115+0.528 * 0.8977+0.404 * 1.6352+0.892 * 1.0912+0.115 * 1.0832
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0226+4.679 * -0.1084-0.327 * 0.9539
=-2.40

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jun16) TTM:Last Year (Jun15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $20 Mil.
Revenue was 344.851 + 348.615 + 310.89 + 299.956 = $1,304 Mil.
Gross Profit was 222.257 + 237.497 + 199.868 + 179.861 = $839 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $428 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,447 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $937 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $99 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $344 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $441 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $551 Mil.
Net Income was 60.847 + 71.98 + 56.709 + 44.458 = $234 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.072 + 0.009 + 0.019 + 0.067 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 95.66 + 160.439 + 97.757 + 36.865 = $391 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $14 Mil.
Revenue was 322.102 + 329.241 + 278.952 + 265.029 = $1,195 Mil.
Gross Profit was 194.826 + 213.653 + 155.639 + 126.539 = $691 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $453 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,317 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $819 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $94 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $308 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $384 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $562 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(20.041 / 1304.312) / (14.004 / 1195.324)
=0.01536519 / 0.01171565
=1.3115

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(690.657 / 1195.324) / (839.483 / 1304.312)
=0.57779899 / 0.64362131
=0.8977

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (427.901 + 937.125) / 1446.965) / (1 - (452.895 + 818.961) / 1317.481)
=0.05662818 / 0.03463048
=1.6352

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1304.312 / 1195.324
=1.0912

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(94.479 / (94.479 + 818.961)) / (98.927 / (98.927 + 937.125))
=0.10343208 / 0.09548459
=1.0832

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(344.11 / 1304.312) / (308.382 / 1195.324)
=0.26382491 / 0.2579903
=1.0226

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((550.636 + 441.192) / 1446.965) / ((562.382 + 384.327) / 1317.481)
=0.68545404 / 0.71857507
=0.9539

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(233.994 - 0.167 - 390.721) / 1446.965
=-0.1084

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co has a M-score of -2.40 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Allegiant Travel Co Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.46441.06620.43911.21140.8831.39571.24180.82520.73880.9598
GMI 0.91340.70481.10470.73911.1541.15930.92660.90230.90850.8124
AQI 0.54871.20620.38871.16612.77431.09761.24621.31690.96951.0276
SGI 1.83661.48171.39781.1071.18941.1741.16631.09621.14141.1101
DEPI 0.73970.87360.83390.80961.09410.9640.85281.0581.31091.0176
SGAI 0.89956.2370.89371.11310.80631.1630.75541.40881.09110.98
LVGI 0.73060.90110.89570.90150.98121.25640.9811.23821.34020.9727
TATA -0.0713-0.1121-0.0856-0.1106-0.0644-0.1139-0.1231-0.1129-0.1484-0.1074
M-score -2.71-3.47-3.20-2.79-1.87-2.49-2.59-3.15-3.44-2.99

Allegiant Travel Co Quarterly Data

Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16
DSRI 1.17421.10450.88980.73880.63640.60730.84840.95980.96731.3115
GMI 0.94220.93430.93620.92360.83970.81620.79080.79990.86830.8977
AQI 0.85050.24732.56610.96950.94272.94170.58511.02761.45931.6352
SGI 1.08681.09491.11841.14141.13461.12721.12191.11011.10121.0912
DEPI 1.10871.49511.33651.31091.33460.94930.94051.01761.07971.0832
SGAI 1.24491.16581.12221.01381.13761.12641.05721.05240.99711.0226
LVGI 1.2281.51961.48471.34021.29271.07171.02250.97270.96740.9539
TATA -0.113-0.0767-0.1122-0.1484-0.1603-0.1634-0.1334-0.1074-0.0965-0.1084
M-score -2.97-3.14-2.54-3.42-3.63-2.86-3.44-3.01-2.73-2.40
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