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Allegiant Travel Co (NAS:ALGT)
Beneish M-Score
-2.82 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co has a M-score of -2.82 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ALGT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.58   Max: -1.6
Current: -2.82

-3.58
-1.6

During the past 14 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Allegiant Travel Co was -1.60. The lowest was -3.58. And the median was -3.00.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Allegiant Travel Co for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9673+0.528 * 0.8467+0.404 * 1.4593+0.892 * 1.1012+0.115 * 1.0797
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.4058+4.679 * -0.0965-0.327 * 0.9674
=-2.82

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar16) TTM:Last Year (Mar15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $14 Mil.
Revenue was 348.615 + 310.89 + 299.956 + 322.102 = $1,282 Mil.
Gross Profit was 237.497 + 199.868 + 179.861 + 194.826 = $812 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $401 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,405 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $931 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $98 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $329 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $423 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $571 Mil.
Net Income was 71.98 + 56.709 + 44.458 + 54.339 = $227 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.009 + 0.019 + 0.067 + 0.055 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 160.439 + 97.757 + 36.865 + 67.785 = $363 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $13 Mil.
Revenue was 329.241 + 278.952 + 265.029 + 290.541 = $1,164 Mil.
Gross Profit was 213.653 + 139.694 + 126.539 + 144.462 = $624 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $477 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,299 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $775 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $89 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $212 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $394 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $557 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(14.346 / 1281.563) / (13.468 / 1163.763)
=0.01119414 / 0.0115728
=0.9673

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(199.868 / 1163.763) / (237.497 / 1281.563)
=0.53649068 / 0.63364189
=0.8467

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (400.515 + 930.55) / 1404.795) / (1 - (476.783 + 775.474) / 1298.977)
=0.05248453 / 0.03596676
=1.4593

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1281.563 / 1163.763
=1.1012

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(89.325 / (89.325 + 775.474)) / (98.435 / (98.435 + 930.55))
=0.1032899 / 0.09566223
=1.0797

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(328.891 / 1281.563) / (212.451 / 1163.763)
=0.25663272 / 0.18255521
=1.4058

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((571.28 + 423.135) / 1404.795) / ((556.505 + 394.019) / 1298.977)
=0.70787197 / 0.73174814
=0.9674

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(227.486 - 0.15 - 362.846) / 1404.795
=-0.0965

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co has a M-score of -2.82 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Allegiant Travel Co Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.46441.06620.43911.21140.8831.39571.24180.82520.73880.9598
GMI 0.91340.88790.8770.73911.14741.17040.92320.90230.93430.79
AQI 0.54871.20620.38871.16612.77431.09761.24621.31691.03250.9649
SGI 1.83661.48171.39781.1071.18941.1741.16631.09621.14141.1101
DEPI 0.73970.87360.83390.80961.09410.9640.85281.0581.31091.0176
SGAI 0.73860.74114.85531.11310.98850.76590.93561.40880.82511.2959
LVGI 0.73060.90110.89570.90150.98121.25640.9811.23821.3420.9714
TATA -0.0713-0.1121-0.0856-0.1106-0.0644-0.1139-0.1231-0.1129-0.1479-0.1074
M-score -2.69-2.43-4.00-2.79-1.91-2.41-2.63-3.15-3.35-3.09

Allegiant Travel Co Quarterly Data

Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16
DSRI 0.82521.17421.10450.88980.73880.63640.60730.84840.95980.9673
GMI 0.90230.92380.9170.91970.93430.87830.85130.82260.79070.8467
AQI 1.31690.85050.24732.56611.03250.94272.94170.58510.96491.4593
SGI 1.09621.08681.09491.11841.14141.13461.12721.12191.11011.1012
DEPI 1.0581.10871.49511.33651.31091.33460.94930.94051.01761.0797
SGAI 1.40881.50431.54341.6020.82510.71110.68850.63251.22991.4058
LVGI 1.23821.2281.51961.48471.3421.29271.07171.02250.97140.9674
TATA -0.1129-0.113-0.0767-0.1122-0.1479-0.1603-0.1634-0.1334-0.1074-0.0965
M-score -3.15-3.02-3.21-2.63-3.35-3.54-2.76-3.35-3.07-2.82
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