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Allegiant Travel Co LLC (NAS:ALGT)
Beneish M-Score
-3.42 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co LLC has a M-score of -3.42 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ALGT' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.65   Max: -1.59
Current: -3.42

-3.65
-1.59

During the past 14 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Allegiant Travel Co LLC was -1.59. The lowest was -3.65. And the median was -3.00.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Allegiant Travel Co LLC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8484+0.528 * 0.7939+0.404 * 0.5851+0.892 * 1.1219+0.115 * 0.9405
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9891+4.679 * -0.1334-0.327 * 1.0225
=-3.42

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep15) TTM:Last Year (Sep14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $16 Mil.
Revenue was 299.956 + 322.102 + 329.241 + 278.952 = $1,230 Mil.
Gross Profit was 179.861 + 194.826 + 213.653 + 139.694 = $728 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $403 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,304 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $833 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $97 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $240 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $358 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $566 Mil.
Net Income was 44.458 + 54.339 + 64.867 + 4.797 = $168 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.067 + 0.055 + -0.004 + 0.044 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 36.865 + 67.785 + 162.96 + 74.627 = $342 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $17 Mil.
Revenue was 265.029 + 290.541 + 302.524 + 238.471 = $1,097 Mil.
Gross Profit was 126.539 + 144.462 + 141.313 + 102.842 = $515 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $440 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,270 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $717 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $78 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $216 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $326 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $554 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(15.712 / 1230.251) / (16.508 / 1096.565)
=0.01277138 / 0.01505428
=0.8484

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(194.826 / 1096.565) / (179.861 / 1230.251)
=0.46979066 / 0.5917768
=0.7939

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (403.477 + 832.822) / 1303.907) / (1 - (440.313 + 717.058) / 1269.904)
=0.05185032 / 0.08861536
=0.5851

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1230.251 / 1096.565
=1.1219

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(77.729 / (77.729 + 717.058)) / (96.651 / (96.651 + 832.822))
=0.09779853 / 0.10398473
=0.9405

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(240.198 / 1230.251) / (216.457 / 1096.565)
=0.19524308 / 0.1973955
=0.9891

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((566.159 + 358.139) / 1303.907) / ((554.421 + 325.961) / 1269.904)
=0.70886804 / 0.69326658
=1.0225

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(168.461 - 0.162 - 342.237) / 1303.907
=-0.1334

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co LLC has a M-score of -3.42 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Allegiant Travel Co LLC Annual Data

Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15
DSRI 0.46441.06620.43911.21140.8831.39571.24180.82520.7388
GMI 0.91340.70481.10470.73911.1541.15930.92660.92080.9155
AQI 0.54871.20620.38871.16612.77431.09761.24621.31691.0325
SGI 1.83661.48171.39781.1071.18941.1741.16631.09621.1414
DEPI 0.73970.87360.83390.80961.09410.9640.85281.0581.3109
SGAI 0.89956.2370.89371.11310.80630.94641.14710.87271.0779
LVGI 0.73060.90110.89570.90150.98121.25640.9811.23821.342
TATA -0.1154-0.1121-0.0856-0.1106-0.0644-0.1139-0.1231-0.1129-0.1479
M-score -2.92-3.47-3.20-2.79-1.87-2.45-2.66-3.05-3.41

Allegiant Travel Co LLC Quarterly Data

Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15
DSRI 0.89880.82521.17421.10450.88980.73880.63640.60730.8484
GMI 0.91250.92080.96090.95190.9530.93120.84430.82010.7939
AQI 0.8961.31690.85050.24732.56611.03250.94272.94170.5851
SGI 1.11451.09621.08681.09491.11841.14141.13461.12721.1219
DEPI 0.98251.0581.10871.49511.33651.31091.33460.94930.9405
SGAI 1.48020.91740.82520.79480.78971.0031.0821.06910.9891
LVGI 1.08791.23821.2281.51961.48471.3421.29271.07171.0225
TATA -0.1295-0.1129-0.113-0.0767-0.1122-0.1479-0.1603-0.1634-0.1334
M-score -3.28-3.05-2.88-3.07-2.48-3.39-3.62-2.84-3.42
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