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Allegiant Travel Co LLC (NAS:ALGT)
Beneish M-Score
-2.84 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co LLC has a M-score of -2.84 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

ALGT' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.61   Max: -1.6
Current: -2.84

-3.61
-1.6

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Allegiant Travel Co LLC was -1.60. The lowest was -3.61. And the median was -2.96.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Allegiant Travel Co LLC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.6073+0.528 * 0.8201+0.404 * 2.9417+0.892 * 1.1272+0.115 * 0.9493
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0233+4.679 * -0.1634-0.327 * 1.0717
=-2.84

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jun15) TTM:Last Year (Jun14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $14 Mil.
Revenue was 322.102 + 329.241 + 278.952 + 265.029 = $1,195 Mil.
Gross Profit was 194.826 + 213.653 + 139.694 + 126.539 = $675 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $453 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,317 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $819 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $94 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $238 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $384 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $562 Mil.
Net Income was 54.339 + 64.867 + 4.797 + 14.172 = $138 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.055 + -0.004 + 0.044 + 0.101 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 67.785 + 162.96 + 74.627 + 47.946 = $353 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $20 Mil.
Revenue was 290.541 + 302.524 + 238.471 + 228.874 = $1,060 Mil.
Gross Profit was 144.462 + 141.313 + 102.842 + 102.255 = $491 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $634 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,317 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $667 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $73 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $206 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $315 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $568 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(14.004 / 1195.324) / (20.456 / 1060.41)
=0.01171565 / 0.01929065
=0.6073

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(213.653 / 1060.41) / (194.826 / 1195.324)
=0.46290774 / 0.56445951
=0.8201

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (452.895 + 818.961) / 1317.481) / (1 - (634.461 + 667.36) / 1317.329)
=0.03463048 / 0.01177231
=2.9417

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1195.324 / 1060.41
=1.1272

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(72.661 / (72.661 + 667.36)) / (94.479 / (94.479 + 818.961))
=0.09818775 / 0.10343208
=0.9493

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(237.981 / 1195.324) / (206.305 / 1060.41)
=0.1990933 / 0.19455211
=1.0233

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((562.382 + 384.327) / 1317.481) / ((567.898 + 315.404) / 1317.329)
=0.71857507 / 0.67052498
=1.0717

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(138.175 - 0.196 - 353.318) / 1317.481
=-0.1634

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Allegiant Travel Co LLC has a M-score of -2.84 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Allegiant Travel Co LLC Annual Data

Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.06620.43911.21140.8831.39571.24180.82520.7388
GMI 01.14330.73321.14631.15930.92660.92080.9155
AQI 1.20620.38871.16612.77431.09761.24621.31691.0325
SGI 1.48171.39781.1071.18941.1741.16631.09621.1414
DEPI 0.87360.83390.80961.09410.9640.85281.0581.3109
SGAI 6.45510.88611.10050.79470.94641.14710.91741.0991
LVGI 0.90110.89570.90150.98121.25640.9811.23821.342
TATA -0.1121-0.0856-0.1106-0.0644-0.1139-0.1231-0.1129-0.1479
M-score -3.88-3.18-2.79-1.87-2.45-2.66-3.05-3.41

Allegiant Travel Co LLC Quarterly Data

Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15
DSRI 0.92421.04330.89880.82521.17421.10450.88980.73880.63640.6073
GMI 0.87470.89930.91250.92080.96090.95190.9530.93120.84430.8201
AQI 1.01811.23920.8961.31690.85050.24732.56611.03250.94272.9417
SGI 1.14581.13351.11451.09621.08681.09491.11841.14141.13461.1272
DEPI 0.77580.82360.98251.0581.10871.49511.33651.31091.33460.9493
SGAI 1.26481.36461.48020.91740.8670.83290.82411.04661.0331.0233
LVGI 0.96270.95611.08791.23821.2281.51961.48471.3421.29271.0717
TATA -0.1315-0.13-0.1295-0.1129-0.113-0.0767-0.1122-0.1479-0.1603-0.1634
M-score -3.15-2.95-3.28-3.05-2.89-3.07-2.48-3.39-3.61-2.84
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