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Avon Products Inc (NYSE:AVP)
Beneish M-Score
-3.08 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Avon Products Inc has a M-score of -3.08 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

AVP' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.08   Max: -2.01
Current: -3.08

-3.08
-2.01

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Avon Products Inc was -2.01. The lowest was -3.08. And the median was -2.49.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Avon Products Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.921+0.528 * 1.0127+0.404 * 1.1196+0.892 * 0.9242+0.115 * 0.8927
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0563+4.679 * -0.1039-0.327 * 1.0285
=-3.08

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar14) TTM:Last Year (Mar13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $632 Mil.
Revenue was 2183.6 + 2667.2 + 2322.9 + 2508.9 = $9,683 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1228.2 + 1627.2 + 1451.2 + 1573.5 = $5,880 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,061 Mil.
Total Assets was $6,085 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,369 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $216 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $5,636 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,096 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,526 Mil.
Net Income was -168.3 + -69.1 + -5.5 + 31.9 = $-211 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -66.4 + -14.3 + -9.7 + -28.6 = $-119 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -112.6 + 443.3 + 23.1 + 186.3 = $540 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $743 Mil.
Revenue was 2456 + 2952.2 + 2510.6 + 2558.2 = $10,477 Mil.
Gross Profit was 1530.6 + 1764.7 + 1539.4 + 1608.5 = $6,443 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,233 Mil.
Total Assets was $7,574 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,501 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $208 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $5,773 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $2,907 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2,686 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(632.3 / 9682.6) / (742.9 / 10477)
=0.06530271 / 0.0709077
=0.921

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1627.2 / 10477) / (1228.2 / 9682.6)
=0.61498521 / 0.60728523
=1.0127

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3061.3 + 1368.5) / 6084.9) / (1 - (4232.6 + 1501.1) / 7573.7)
=0.27200118 / 0.24294598
=1.1196

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=9682.6 / 10477
=0.9242

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(207.8 / (207.8 + 1501.1)) / (215.8 / (215.8 + 1368.5))
=0.12159869 / 0.13621158
=0.8927

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(5635.7 / 9682.6) / (5772.9 / 10477)
=0.58204408 / 0.55100697
=1.0563

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2525.9 + 2095.6) / 6084.9) / ((2685.5 + 2907.4) / 7573.7)
=0.75950303 / 0.73846337
=1.0285

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-211 - -119 - 540.1) / 6084.9
=-0.1039

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Avon Products Inc has a M-score of -3.08 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Avon Products Inc Annual Data

Dec04Dec05Dec06Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13
DSRI 0.95681.00621.03740.9910.80431.16621.01380.88661.24070.9159
GMI 0.99041.00981.01871.00120.9571.00870.99550.99271.03450.9846
AQI 1.08281.10010.92281.05211.19670.87121.55631.01930.97820.9556
SGI 1.13191.05191.06481.14541.07560.95461.06441.03950.93530.9426
DEPI 1.15720.99270.92571.06760.97061.14680.99730.80811.08230.8805
SGAI 0.99931.02511.10940.97950.97991.04221.00491.00841.0451.0292
LVGI 0.86031.14931.02861.09840.96390.93121.0030.99131.05371.0201
TATA -0.002-0.0084-0.0766-0.00920.0271-0.0218-0.0052-0.0138-0.0801-0.065
M-score -2.32-2.48-2.80-2.40-2.40-2.48-2.21-2.63-2.70-2.96

Avon Products Inc Quarterly Data

Dec11Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14
DSRI 0.88660.92980.88791.03551.23661.04841.01620.94940.91890.921
GMI 0.99271.01161.0221.03111.03471.01711.01140.99670.98441.0127
AQI 1.01931.00111.01411.01110.97820.92241.02290.93850.95561.1196
SGI 1.03951.01740.97040.93560.93840.93230.95320.95810.93950.9242
DEPI 0.80810.83720.85650.99391.08231.09730.98050.91690.88050.8927
SGAI 1.00841.02071.04111.05041.04531.01730.98320.9871.02891.0563
LVGI 0.99131.01371.06791.03851.05371.06031.00571.01731.02011.0285
TATA -0.0138-0.0278-0.0378-0.0615-0.0801-0.0581-0.0849-0.068-0.065-0.1039
M-score -2.63-2.68-2.81-2.79-2.70-2.80-2.89-2.92-2.96-3.08
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