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Aspen Technology Inc (NAS:AZPN)
Beneish M-Score
-2.80 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Aspen Technology Inc has a M-score of -2.80 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

AZPN' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -5.05   Max: -1.26
Current: -2.8

-5.05
-1.26

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Aspen Technology Inc was -1.26. The lowest was -5.05. And the median was -3.01.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Aspen Technology Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9562+0.528 * 0.9881+0.404 * 1.5137+0.892 * 1.0408+0.115 * 0.9444
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9754+4.679 * -0.0798-0.327 * 1.4345
=-2.80

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Sep16) TTM:Last Year (Sep15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $21.8 Mil.
Revenue was 120.05 + 113.68 + 119.217 + 119.151 = $472.1 Mil.
Gross Profit was 108.544 + 101.949 + 107.197 + 107.263 = $425.0 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $225.7 Mil.
Total Assets was $289.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $15.8 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $6.3 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $145.1 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $411.7 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.
Net Income was 35 + 33.326 + 33.171 + 36.683 = $138.2 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0.646 + 1.976 + -2.686 + -0.157 = $-0.2 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 26.25 + 44.849 + 69.723 + 20.726 = $161.5 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $22.0 Mil.
Revenue was 120.296 + 114.186 + 111.299 + 107.79 = $453.6 Mil.
Gross Profit was 107.324 + 101.565 + 98.99 + 95.525 = $403.4 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $219.9 Mil.
Total Assets was $266.8 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $17.4 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $6.4 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $142.9 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $264.1 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(21.847 / 472.098) / (21.951 / 453.571)
=0.04627641 / 0.04839595
=0.9562

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(403.404 / 453.571) / (424.953 / 472.098)
=0.88939549 / 0.90013726
=0.9881

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (225.664 + 15.766) / 289.944) / (1 - (219.937 + 17.353) / 266.78)
=0.16732197 / 0.11054052
=1.5137

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=472.098 / 453.571
=1.0408

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(6.411 / (6.411 + 17.353)) / (6.305 / (6.305 + 15.766))
=0.26977782 / 0.28566898
=0.9444

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(145.084 / 472.098) / (142.904 / 453.571)
=0.30731755 / 0.31506423
=0.9754

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 411.665) / 289.944) / ((0 + 264.052) / 266.78)
=1.41980865 / 0.98977435
=1.4345

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(138.18 - -0.221 - 161.548) / 289.944
=-0.0798

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Aspen Technology Inc has a M-score of -2.80 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Aspen Technology Inc Annual Data

Jun07Jun08Jun09Jun10Jun11Jun12Jun13Jun14Jun15Jun16
DSRI 0.70362.01421.31721.36650.28030.91980.91830.82870.70870.6214
GMI 0.92520.99780.96111.25570.81890.93740.93640.96870.97520.9892
AQI 0.99151.01181.07670.87221.06350.73760.86340.74060.61650.9498
SGI 1.16290.91370.99990.53391.19121.2271.28071.25711.1251.0725
DEPI 1.37521.35170.81511.06061.01411.03191.07030.98311.58940.9254
SGAI 0.9861.16910.92322.10810.78480.81570.74430.78270.8940.9571
LVGI 1.36690.81490.78911.13410.86921.19731.05941.16041.43911.0964
TATA -0.0179-0.08880.0421-0.364-0.1359-0.312-0.2617-0.2747-0.2308-0.0329
M-score -2.81-1.96-1.92-4.41-3.60-3.98-3.59-3.83-3.94-2.98

Aspen Technology Inc Quarterly Data

Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16
DSRI 0.82870.5460.54140.78960.70870.80290.68190.70060.62140.9562
GMI 0.96870.97240.97940.97170.97520.97940.97910.98680.98920.9881
AQI 0.74060.80711.01910.84540.61650.69610.61250.51160.94981.5137
SGI 1.25711.2551.20371.14621.1251.10351.10691.10541.07251.0408
DEPI 0.98311.0851.7681.67441.58941.33670.8590.88160.92540.9444
SGAI 0.78270.77620.79560.84390.8940.92720.95150.95170.95710.9754
LVGI 1.16041.13811.14741.37421.43911.54291.24581.08891.09641.4345
TATA -0.2747-0.2991-0.2729-0.2595-0.2308-0.1657-0.0904-0.05-0.0329-0.0798
M-score -3.83-4.16-3.92-3.85-3.94-3.60-3.36-3.13-2.98-2.80
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