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Aspen Technology Inc (NAS:AZPN)
Beneish M-Score
-2.98 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Aspen Technology Inc has a M-score of -2.98 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

AZPN' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.93   Max: -1.92
Current: -2.98

-4.93
-1.92

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Aspen Technology Inc was -1.92. The lowest was -4.93. And the median was -2.98.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Aspen Technology Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.6214+0.528 * 0.9892+0.404 * 0.9498+0.892 * 1.0725+0.115 * 0.9254
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9571+4.679 * -0.0329-0.327 * 1.0964
=-2.98

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jun16) TTM:Last Year (Jun15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $20.5 Mil.
Revenue was 113.68 + 119.217 + 119.151 + 120.296 = $472.3 Mil.
Gross Profit was 101.949 + 107.197 + 107.263 + 107.324 = $423.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $361.3 Mil.
Total Assets was $419.7 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $15.8 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $6.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $145.2 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $432.6 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.
Net Income was 33.326 + 33.171 + 36.683 + 36.771 = $140.0 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 1.976 + -2.686 + -0.157 + 0.896 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 44.849 + 69.723 + 20.726 + 18.446 = $153.7 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $30.7 Mil.
Revenue was 114.186 + 111.299 + 107.79 + 107.126 = $440.4 Mil.
Gross Profit was 101.565 + 98.99 + 95.525 + 94.745 = $390.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $263.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $315.4 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $18.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $6.2 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $141.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $296.5 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $0.0 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(20.476 / 472.344) / (30.721 / 440.401)
=0.04334976 / 0.06975688
=0.6214

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(390.825 / 440.401) / (423.733 / 472.344)
=0.88742987 / 0.8970856
=0.9892

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (361.323 + 15.825) / 419.738) / (1 - (263.63 + 18.039) / 315.361)
=0.10146806 / 0.10683629
=0.9498

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=472.344 / 440.401
=1.0725

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(6.216 / (6.216 + 18.039)) / (6.061 / (6.061 + 15.825))
=0.25627706 / 0.27693503
=0.9254

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(145.2 / 472.344) / (141.449 / 440.401)
=0.30740308 / 0.32118229
=0.9571

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((0 + 432.623) / 419.738) / ((0 + 296.466) / 315.361)
=1.03069772 / 0.94008454
=1.0964

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(139.951 - 0.029 - 153.744) / 419.738
=-0.0329

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Aspen Technology Inc has a M-score of -2.98 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Aspen Technology Inc Annual Data

Jun07Jun08Jun09Jun10Jun11Jun12Jun13Jun14Jun15Jun16
DSRI 0.70362.01421.31721.36650.28030.91980.91830.82870.70870.6214
GMI 0.92520.99780.96111.25570.81890.93740.93640.96870.97520.9892
AQI 0.99151.01181.07670.87221.06350.73760.86340.74060.61650.9498
SGI 1.16290.91370.99990.53391.19121.2271.28071.25711.1251.0725
DEPI 1.37521.35170.81511.06061.01411.03191.07030.98311.58940.9254
SGAI 0.9861.16910.92322.10810.78480.81570.74430.78270.8940.9571
LVGI 1.36690.81490.78911.13410.86921.19731.05941.16041.43911.0964
TATA -0.0179-0.08880.0421-0.364-0.1359-0.312-0.2617-0.2747-0.2308-0.0329
M-score -2.81-1.96-1.92-4.41-3.60-3.98-3.59-3.83-3.94-2.98

Aspen Technology Inc Quarterly Data

Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16
DSRI 0.83780.82870.5460.54140.78960.70870.80290.68190.70060.6214
GMI 0.96360.96870.97240.97940.97170.97520.97940.97910.98680.9892
AQI 0.4560.74060.80711.01910.84540.61650.69610.61250.51160.9498
SGI 1.27741.25711.2551.20371.14621.1251.10351.10691.10541.0725
DEPI 1.04950.98311.0851.7681.67441.58941.33670.8590.88160.9254
SGAI 0.78640.78270.77620.79560.84390.8940.92720.95150.95170.9571
LVGI 1.17071.16041.13811.14741.37421.43911.54291.24581.08891.0964
TATA -0.2448-0.2747-0.2991-0.2729-0.2595-0.2308-0.1657-0.0904-0.05-0.0329
M-score -3.78-3.83-4.16-3.92-3.85-3.94-3.60-3.36-3.13-2.98
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