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Blyth Inc (NYSE:BTH)
Beneish M-Score
-1.92 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -1.92 signals that the company is a manipulator.

BTH' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.29   Max: -1.5
Current: -1.92

-4.29
-1.5

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Blyth Inc was -1.50. The lowest was -4.29. And the median was -2.66.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Blyth Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.7901+0.528 * 1.0204+0.404 * 1.3894+0.892 * 0.741+0.115 * 0.8837
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0497+4.679 * -0.0323-0.327 * 0.7921
=-1.92

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jun14) TTM:Last Year (Jun13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $13.2 Mil.
Revenue was 157.793 + 175.67 + 261.159 + 179.466 = $774.1 Mil.
Gross Profit was 101.329 + 113.48 + 171.776 + 112.531 = $499.1 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $218.2 Mil.
Total Assets was $335.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $87.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $13.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $492.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $82.8 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $54.9 Mil.
Net Income was -4.44 + -2.762 + 9.665 + -8.47 = $-6.0 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.072 + -0.027 + -0.155 + 0.266 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -6.531 + -16.669 + 37.36 + -9.342 = $4.8 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $10.0 Mil.
Revenue was 211.731 + 233.094 + 331.021 + 268.811 = $1,044.7 Mil.
Gross Profit was 135.207 + 153.076 + 222.277 + 176.725 = $687.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $304.2 Mil.
Total Assets was $428.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $96.4 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $12.6 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $632.6 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $166.5 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $55.4 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(13.218 / 774.088) / (9.965 / 1044.657)
=0.01707558 / 0.00953902
=1.7901

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(113.48 / 1044.657) / (101.329 / 774.088)
=0.65790494 / 0.6447794
=1.0204

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (218.169 + 87.049) / 335.599) / (1 - (304.22 + 96.42) / 428.564)
=0.09052768 / 0.06515713
=1.3894

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=774.088 / 1044.657
=0.741

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(12.619 / (12.619 + 96.42)) / (13.118 / (13.118 + 87.049))
=0.11572923 / 0.13096129
=0.8837

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(492.038 / 774.088) / (632.593 / 1044.657)
=0.63563574 / 0.60555091
=1.0497

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((54.885 + 82.755) / 335.599) / ((55.38 + 166.533) / 428.564)
=0.41013233 / 0.51780598
=0.7921

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-6.007 - 0.012 - 4.818) / 335.599
=-0.0323

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -1.92 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Blyth Inc Annual Data

Jan04Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Dec12Dec13
DSRI 1.07871.37950.91480.32781.04820.93380.69441.00040.3991.8421
GMI 1.03380.90061.05291.0370.92520.96181.00150.9890.83061.0325
AQI 1.20971.21760.76910.80650.83730.82780.80510.62050.76881.8505
SGI 1.16840.86440.96380.97320.95440.9020.91180.94031.30920.7507
DEPI 0.90581.00330.84420.77910.98871.3871.00641.12011.10390.8991
SGAI 0.97061.16331.01411.01771.05411.08591.00181.00571.18521.0478
LVGI 1.18871.03021.12890.9220.99081.0550.96830.97761.0910.8786
TATA -0.0768-0.0395-0.0255-0.1937-0.0454-0.0758-0.1417-0.0235-0.0199-0.0828
M-score -2.58-2.44-2.84-4.09-2.80-3.06-3.57-2.78-3.08-1.93

Blyth Inc Quarterly Data

Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14
DSRI 0.90670.69980.51110.47230.5590.77741.89761.84211.75771.7901
GMI 0.890.85570.84250.84570.93730.981.00731.03251.03271.0204
AQI 0.91151.0381.03720.90820.92330.91011.67321.85051.7251.3894
SGI 0.95621.09341.15051.19911.32611.06020.89390.75070.72480.741
DEPI 1.01361.17881.23321.27871.08070.96090.89190.89910.88350.8837
SGAI 1.19211.19841.18411.12171.00480.99430.9991.04781.04661.0497
LVGI 0.98191.11691.18861.08831.03651.02490.86950.87860.92770.7921
TATA 0.10570.05920.0311-0.0199-0.0444-0.0411-0.0593-0.0828-0.0535-0.0323
M-score -2.23-2.51-2.78-3.02-2.87-2.88-1.72-1.93-1.97-1.92
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