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Blyth Inc (NYSE:BTH)
Beneish M-Score
-0.61 (As of Today)

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -0.61 higher than -2.22, which implies that it might have manipulated its financial results.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -0.61 signals that the company is a manipulator.

BTH' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.29   Max: -0.45
Current: -0.61

-4.29
-0.45

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Blyth Inc was -0.45. The lowest was -4.29. And the median was -2.64.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Blyth Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.3426+0.528 * 1.0479+0.404 * 1.4824+0.892 * 0.6926+0.115 * 0.9634
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0021+4.679 * 0.3518-0.327 * 1.1009
=-0.61

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jun15) TTM:Last Year (Jun14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $12.3 Mil.
Revenue was 87.989 + 103.726 + 176.796 + 90.752 = $459.3 Mil.
Gross Profit was 51.864 + 58.536 + 115.436 + 53.495 = $279.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $147.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $239.2 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $60.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $7.7 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $286.2 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $69.4 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $38.7 Mil.
Net Income was -8.831 + -12.468 + -12.211 + 106.173 = $72.7 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.292 + -1.399 + -3.552 + -0.38 = $-5.6 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -12.308 + -23.788 + 42.209 + -11.99 = $-5.9 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $13.2 Mil.
Revenue was 104.233 + 118.239 + 261.159 + 179.466 = $663.1 Mil.
Gross Profit was 63.926 + 74.382 + 171.776 + 112.531 = $422.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $218.2 Mil.
Total Assets was $335.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $87.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $10.7 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $412.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $82.8 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $54.9 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(12.291 / 459.263) / (13.218 / 663.097)
=0.02676244 / 0.01993374
=1.3426

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(58.536 / 663.097) / (51.864 / 459.263)
=0.63733511 / 0.60821577
=1.0479

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (147.017 + 60.115) / 239.238) / (1 - (218.169 + 87.049) / 335.599)
=0.13420109 / 0.09052768
=1.4824

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=459.263 / 663.097
=0.6926

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(10.724 / (10.724 + 87.049)) / (7.723 / (7.723 + 60.115))
=0.10968263 / 0.11384475
=0.9634

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(286.2 / 459.263) / (412.359 / 663.097)
=0.62317234 / 0.62186829
=1.0021

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((38.669 + 69.351) / 239.238) / ((54.885 + 82.755) / 335.599)
=0.4515169 / 0.41013233
=1.1009

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(72.663 - -5.623 - -5.877) / 239.238
=0.3518

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -0.61 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Blyth Inc Annual Data

Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.37950.91480.32781.04820.93380.69441.00040.3991.84211.5835
GMI 0.90061.05291.0370.92520.96181.00150.9890.83061.03251.0314
AQI 1.21760.76910.80650.83730.82780.80510.62050.76881.85051.0601
SGI 0.86440.96380.97320.95440.9020.91180.94031.30920.75070.5534
DEPI 1.00330.84420.77910.98871.3871.00641.12011.10390.89911.1024
SGAI 1.16331.01411.01771.05411.08591.00181.00571.18521.04780.9808
LVGI 1.03021.12890.9220.99081.0550.96830.97761.0910.87861.0718
TATA -0.0395-0.0255-0.1937-0.0454-0.0758-0.1417-0.0235-0.0199-0.08280.2959
M-score -2.44-2.84-4.09-2.80-3.06-3.57-2.78-3.08-1.93-0.92

Blyth Inc Quarterly Data

Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15
DSRI 0.55990.79971.94781.88621.9142.08971.53681.58351.41181.3426
GMI 0.93630.96220.99021.01641.02831.03231.03041.03141.04591.0479
AQI 0.92330.91011.67321.85051.7251.38941.20461.06011.56111.4824
SGI 1.3241.03060.87090.73310.66560.63480.60130.55340.61710.6926
DEPI 1.10190.99850.89190.89910.94411.03620.92791.10241.01690.9634
SGAI 1.00531.01491.01811.06581.04521.02691.00610.98080.98951.0021
LVGI 1.03651.02490.86950.87860.92770.79210.98031.07181.01291.1009
TATA -0.0444-0.0411-0.0593-0.0828-0.0392-0.02860.38330.29590.32590.3518
M-score -2.87-2.90-1.71-1.92-1.80-1.70-0.45-0.92-0.67-0.61
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