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Blyth Inc (NYSE:BTH)
Beneish M-Score
-1.97 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -1.97 signals that the company is a manipulator.

BTH' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.29   Max: -1.5
Current: -1.97

-4.29
-1.5

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Blyth Inc was -1.50. The lowest was -4.29. And the median was -2.67.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Blyth Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.7577+0.528 * 1.0327+0.404 * 1.725+0.892 * 0.7248+0.115 * 0.8835
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0466+4.679 * -0.0535-0.327 * 0.9277
=-1.97

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar14) TTM:Last Year (Mar13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $14.4 Mil.
Revenue was 175.67 + 261.159 + 179.466 + 211.731 = $828.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 113.48 + 171.776 + 112.531 + 135.207 = $533.0 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $230.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $355.3 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $93.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $13.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $522.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $96.9 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $55.1 Mil.
Net Income was -2.762 + 9.665 + -8.47 + -1.358 = $-2.9 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.027 + -0.155 + 0.266 + -0.278 = $-0.2 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -16.669 + 37.36 + -9.342 + 4.929 = $16.3 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $11.3 Mil.
Revenue was 233.094 + 331.021 + 268.811 + 309.468 = $1,142.4 Mil.
Gross Profit was 153.076 + 222.277 + 176.725 + 207.338 = $759.4 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $275.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $392.0 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $97.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $11.8 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $688.1 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $175.4 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $5.5 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(14.4 / 828.026) / (11.303 / 1142.394)
=0.01739076 / 0.00989413
=1.7577

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(171.776 / 1142.394) / (113.48 / 828.026)
=0.66475839 / 0.64369235
=1.0327

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (230.578 + 93.498) / 355.251) / (1 - (275.042 + 97.059) / 392.045)
=0.08775486 / 0.05087171
=1.725

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=828.026 / 1142.394
=0.7248

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(11.818 / (11.818 + 97.059)) / (13.095 / (13.095 + 93.498))
=0.1085445 / 0.12285047
=0.8835

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(521.961 / 828.026) / (688.074 / 1142.394)
=0.63036789 / 0.60230884
=1.0466

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((55.11 + 96.929) / 355.251) / ((5.458 + 175.413) / 392.045)
=0.42797628 / 0.46135265
=0.9277

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-2.925 - -0.194 - 16.278) / 355.251
=-0.0535

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -1.97 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Blyth Inc Annual Data

Jan04Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Dec12Dec13
DSRI 1.07871.37950.91480.32781.04820.93380.69441.00040.3991.8421
GMI 1.03380.90061.05291.0370.92520.96181.00150.9890.83061.0325
AQI 1.20971.21760.76910.80650.83730.82780.80510.62050.76881.8505
SGI 1.16840.86440.96380.97320.95440.9020.91180.94031.30920.7507
DEPI 0.90581.00330.84420.77910.98871.3871.00641.12011.10390.8991
SGAI 0.97061.16331.01411.01771.05411.08591.00181.00571.18521.0478
LVGI 1.18871.03021.12890.9220.99081.0550.96830.97761.0910.8786
TATA -0.0768-0.0395-0.0255-0.1937-0.0454-0.0758-0.1417-0.0235-0.0199-0.0828
M-score -2.58-2.44-2.84-4.09-2.80-3.06-3.57-2.78-3.08-1.93

Blyth Inc Quarterly Data

Oct11Mar12Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14
DSRI 0.23340.90670.69980.51110.47230.5590.77741.89761.84211.7577
GMI 1.03710.890.85570.84250.84570.93730.981.00731.03251.0327
AQI 0.5590.91151.0381.03720.90820.92330.91011.67321.85051.725
SGI 1.18380.95621.09341.15051.19911.32611.06020.89390.75070.7248
DEPI 0.81621.01361.17881.23321.27871.08070.96090.89190.89910.8835
SGAI 1.01331.19211.19841.18411.12171.00480.99430.9991.04781.0466
LVGI 0.97280.98191.11691.18861.08831.03651.02490.86950.87860.9277
TATA -0.07410.10570.05920.0311-0.0199-0.0444-0.0411-0.0593-0.0828-0.0535
M-score -3.54-2.23-2.51-2.78-3.02-2.87-2.88-1.72-1.93-1.97
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