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Blyth Inc (NYSE:BTH)
Beneish M-Score
-0.52 (As of Today)

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -0.52 higher than -2.22, which implies that it might have manipulated its financial results.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -0.52 signals that the company is a manipulator.

BTH' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.65   Max: -0.52
Current: -0.52

-4.65
-0.52

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Blyth Inc was -0.52. The lowest was -4.65. And the median was -2.68.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Blyth Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8284+0.528 * 0.9906+0.404 * 1.2046+0.892 * 1.1154+0.115 * 0.6739
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0449+4.679 * 0.4231-0.327 * 0.9803
=-0.52

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Sep14) TTM:Last Year (Sep13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $13.1 Mil.
Revenue was 90.752 + 157.793 + 175.67 + 549.426 = $973.6 Mil.
Gross Profit was 53.495 + 101.329 + 113.48 + 369.954 = $638.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $176.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $282.7 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $71.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $12.7 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $619.5 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $117.7 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $4.8 Mil.
Net Income was 106.173 + -4.44 + -2.762 + 9.665 = $108.6 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.38 + -0.072 + -0.027 + -0.032 = $-0.5 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -13.254 + -6.531 + -16.669 + 25.983 = $-10.5 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $14.1 Mil.
Revenue was 97.029 + 211.731 + 233.094 + 331.021 = $872.9 Mil.
Gross Profit was 56.281 + 135.207 + 153.076 + 222.277 = $566.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $220.5 Mil.
Total Assets was $353.4 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $96.6 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $11.0 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $531.5 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $101.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $55.2 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(13.067 / 973.641) / (14.142 / 872.875)
=0.01342076 / 0.01620163
=0.8284

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(101.329 / 872.875) / (53.495 / 973.641)
=0.64939539 / 0.65553731
=0.9906

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (176.618 + 71.11) / 282.686) / (1 - (220.457 + 96.642) / 353.376)
=0.12366371 / 0.10265836
=1.2046

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=973.641 / 872.875
=1.1154

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(10.968 / (10.968 + 96.642)) / (12.671 / (12.671 + 71.11))
=0.10192361 / 0.15123954
=0.6739

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(619.453 / 973.641) / (531.491 / 872.875)
=0.63622321 / 0.60889704
=1.0449

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((4.794 + 117.688) / 282.686) / ((55.187 + 100.999) / 353.376)
=0.43327933 / 0.44198248
=0.9803

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(108.636 - -0.511 - -10.471) / 282.686
=0.4231

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -0.52 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Blyth Inc Annual Data

Jan04Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Dec12Dec13
DSRI 1.07871.13170.88910.41111.04820.93380.69441.00040.3991.8421
GMI 1.03380.98811.07290.92760.92520.96181.00150.9890.83061.0325
AQI 1.20971.21760.76910.80650.83730.82780.80510.62050.76881.8505
SGI 1.16841.05360.99170.77590.95440.9020.91180.94031.30920.7507
DEPI 0.90581.00330.84420.77910.98871.3871.00641.12011.10390.8991
SGAI 0.97061.04561.01091.13591.05411.08591.00181.00571.18521.0478
LVGI 1.18871.03021.12890.9220.99081.0550.96830.97761.0910.8786
TATA -0.0768-0.0393-0.073-0.1937-0.0454-0.0758-0.1417-0.0235-0.0199-0.0828
M-score -2.58-2.43-3.05-4.27-2.80-3.06-3.57-2.78-3.08-1.93

Blyth Inc Quarterly Data

Jun12Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14
DSRI 0.69980.51110.47230.5590.77742.07681.49461.40771.41410.8284
GMI 0.85570.84250.84570.93730.981.01181.01971.01831.00570.9906
AQI 1.0381.03720.90820.92330.91011.67321.85051.7251.38941.2046
SGI 1.09341.15051.19911.32611.06020.81680.92520.9050.9381.1154
DEPI 1.17881.23321.27871.08070.96091.04610.89910.88350.88370.6739
SGAI 1.19841.18411.12171.00480.99430.99121.05061.04751.04881.0449
LVGI 1.11691.18861.08831.03651.02490.86950.87860.92770.79210.9803
TATA 0.05920.0311-0.0199-0.0444-0.0411-0.0914-0.083-0.0537-0.03250.4231
M-score -2.51-2.78-3.02-2.87-2.88-1.75-2.11-2.14-2.10-0.52
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