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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
Blyth Inc has a M-score of -1.92 signals that the company is a manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Blyth Inc was -1.13. The lowest was -4.29. And the median was -2.66.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Blyth Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 1.7901||+||0.528 * 1.0204||+||0.404 * 1.3894||+||0.892 * 0.741||+||0.115 * 0.8837|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 1.0497||+||4.679 * -0.0323||-||0.327 * 0.7921|
|This Year (Jun14) TTM:||Last Year (Jun13) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $13.2 Mil.|
Revenue was 157.793 + 175.67 + 261.159 + 179.466 = $774.1 Mil.
Gross Profit was 101.329 + 113.48 + 171.776 + 112.531 = $499.1 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $218.2 Mil.
Total Assets was $335.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $87.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $13.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $492.0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $82.8 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $54.9 Mil.
Net Income was -4.44 + -2.762 + 9.665 + -8.47 = $-6.0 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.072 + -0.027 + -0.155 + 0.266 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -6.531 + -16.669 + 37.36 + -9.342 = $4.8 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $10.0 Mil.
Revenue was 211.731 + 233.094 + 331.021 + 268.811 = $1,044.7 Mil.
Gross Profit was 135.207 + 153.076 + 222.277 + 176.725 = $687.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $304.2 Mil.
Total Assets was $428.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $96.4 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $12.6 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $632.6 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $166.5 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $55.4 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(13.218 / 774.088)||/||(9.965 / 1044.657)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(113.48 / 1044.657)||/||(101.329 / 774.088)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (218.169 + 87.049) / 335.599)||/||(1 - (304.22 + 96.42) / 428.564)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(12.619 / (12.619 + 96.42))||/||(13.118 / (13.118 + 87.049))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(492.038 / 774.088)||/||(632.593 / 1044.657)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((54.885 + 82.755) / 335.599)||/||((55.38 + 166.533) / 428.564)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(-6.007 - 0.012||-||4.818)||/||335.599|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Blyth Inc has a M-score of -1.92 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Blyth Inc Annual Data
Blyth Inc Quarterly Data