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Blyth Inc (NYSE:BTH)
Beneish M-Score
-0.86 (As of Today)

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -0.86 higher than -2.22, which implies that it might have manipulated its financial results.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -0.86 signals that the company is a manipulator.

BTH' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.29   Max: -0.58
Current: -0.86

-4.29
-0.58

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Blyth Inc was -0.58. The lowest was -4.29. And the median was -2.65.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Blyth Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0295+0.528 * 1.0241+0.404 * 1.5611+0.892 * 0.8462+0.115 * 0.7776
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0291+4.679 * 0.3267-0.327 * 1.0129
=-0.86

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Mar15) TTM:Last Year (Mar14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $12.5 Mil.
Revenue was 103.726 + 176.796 + 90.752 + 157.793 = $529.1 Mil.
Gross Profit was 58.536 + 115.436 + 53.495 + 101.329 = $328.8 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $144.4 Mil.
Total Assets was $241.6 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $64.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $8.1 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $331.4 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $65.8 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $38.9 Mil.
Net Income was -12.468 + -12.211 + 106.173 + -4.44 = $77.1 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -1.399 + -3.552 + -0.38 + -0.072 = $-5.4 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -23.788 + 42.209 + -13.254 + -1.638 = $3.5 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $14.4 Mil.
Revenue was 118.239 + 198.238 + 97.029 + 211.731 = $625.2 Mil.
Gross Profit was 74.382 + 132.039 + 56.281 + 135.207 = $397.9 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $230.6 Mil.
Total Assets was $355.3 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $93.5 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $8.9 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $380.5 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $96.9 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $55.1 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(12.545 / 529.067) / (14.4 / 625.237)
=0.02371155 / 0.02303127
=1.0295

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(115.436 / 625.237) / (58.536 / 529.067)
=0.63641307 / 0.62146382
=1.0241

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (144.377 + 64.087) / 241.556) / (1 - (230.578 + 93.498) / 355.251)
=0.13699515 / 0.08775486
=1.5611

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=529.067 / 625.237
=0.8462

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(8.917 / (8.917 + 93.498)) / (8.081 / (8.081 + 64.087))
=0.08706732 / 0.11197484
=0.7776

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(331.373 / 529.067) / (380.527 / 625.237)
=0.62633466 / 0.60861241
=1.0291

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((38.901 + 65.815) / 241.556) / ((55.11 + 96.929) / 355.251)
=0.4335061 / 0.42797628
=1.0129

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(77.054 - -5.403 - 3.529) / 241.556
=0.3267

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -0.86 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Blyth Inc Annual Data

Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.37950.91480.32781.04820.93380.69441.00040.3993.01740.9667
GMI 0.90061.05291.0370.92520.96181.00150.9890.83061.06580.9991
AQI 1.21760.76910.80650.83730.82780.80510.62050.76882.92640.6704
SGI 0.86440.96380.97320.95440.9020.91180.94031.30920.4530.9172
DEPI 1.00330.84420.77910.98871.3871.00641.12011.10390.94451.0495
SGAI 1.16331.01411.01771.05411.08591.00181.00571.18521.01381.0138
LVGI 1.03021.12890.9220.99081.0550.96830.97761.0910.87881.0716
TATA -0.0395-0.0255-0.1937-0.0454-0.0758-0.1417-0.0235-0.0199-0.12310.2959
M-score -2.44-2.84-4.09-2.80-3.06-3.57-2.78-3.08-0.84-1.35

Blyth Inc Quarterly Data

Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14Mar15
DSRI 0.47230.5590.77742.07682.17822.32782.42551.42741.20721.0295
GMI 0.84570.93730.981.01181.03681.04451.03251.01571.01571.0241
AQI 0.90820.92330.91011.67322.92641.7251.38941.20460.67041.5611
SGI 1.19911.32611.06020.81680.62750.54730.54690.64730.73450.8462
DEPI 1.27871.08070.96091.04610.94451.24671.12110.8591.04950.7776
SGAI 1.12171.00480.99430.99121.02731.01051.01351.01061.01631.0291
LVGI 1.08831.03651.02490.86950.87880.92770.79210.98031.07161.0129
TATA -0.0199-0.0444-0.0411-0.0914-0.1232-0.0809-0.07590.37160.29660.3267
M-score -3.02-2.87-2.88-1.75-1.48-1.67-1.67-0.58-1.28-0.86
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