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Blyth Inc (NYSE:BTH)
Beneish M-Score
-1.10 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -1.10 signals that the company is a manipulator.

BTH' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -4.13   Max: -1.33
Current: -1.1

-4.13
-1.33

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Blyth Inc was -1.33. The lowest was -4.13. And the median was -2.78.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Blyth Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.2911+0.528 * 1.0128+0.404 * 1.0601+0.892 * 0.6788+0.115 * 1.1024
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.012+4.679 * 0.2959-0.327 * 1.0718
=-1.10

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Dec14) TTM:Last Year (Dec13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $11.1 Mil.
Revenue was 176.796 + 90.752 + 157.793 + 175.67 = $601.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was 115.436 + 53.495 + 101.329 + 113.48 = $383.7 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $192.9 Mil.
Total Assets was $287.4 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $68.3 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $8.3 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $379.8 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $129.3 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $4.6 Mil.
Net Income was -12.211 + 106.173 + -4.44 + -2.762 = $86.8 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -3.552 + -0.38 + -0.072 + -0.027 = $-4.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 42.209 + -13.254 + -6.531 + -16.669 = $5.8 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $12.7 Mil.
Revenue was 261.159 + 179.466 + 211.731 + 233.094 = $885.5 Mil.
Gross Profit was 171.776 + 112.531 + 135.207 + 153.076 = $572.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $239.8 Mil.
Total Assets was $366.8 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $95.4 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $13.0 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $552.9 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $104.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $55.3 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(11.133 / 601.011) / (12.704 / 885.45)
=0.01852379 / 0.01434751
=1.2911

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(53.495 / 885.45) / (115.436 / 601.011)
=0.64666554 / 0.63849081
=1.0128

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (192.89 + 68.266) / 287.353) / (1 - (239.808 + 95.428) / 366.777)
=0.09116661 / 0.08599503
=1.0601

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=601.011 / 885.45
=0.6788

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(12.987 / (12.987 + 95.428)) / (8.322 / (8.322 + 68.266))
=0.1197897 / 0.10865932
=1.1024

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(379.821 / 601.011) / (552.939 / 885.45)
=0.63197013 / 0.6244723
=1.012

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((4.556 + 129.258) / 287.353) / ((55.326 + 104.033) / 366.777)
=0.4656781 / 0.43448471
=1.0718

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(86.76 - -4.031 - 5.755) / 287.353
=0.2959

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Blyth Inc has a M-score of -1.10 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Blyth Inc Annual Data

Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Dec12Dec13Dec14
DSRI 1.37950.91480.32781.04820.93380.69441.00040.3991.84211.5835
GMI 0.90061.05291.0370.92520.96181.00150.9890.83061.03251.0314
AQI 1.21760.76910.80650.83730.82780.80510.62050.76881.85051.0601
SGI 0.86440.96380.97320.95440.9020.91180.94031.30920.75070.5534
DEPI 1.00330.84420.77910.98871.3871.00641.12011.10390.89911.1024
SGAI 1.16331.01411.01771.05411.08591.00181.00571.18521.04780.9808
LVGI 1.03021.12890.9220.99081.0550.96830.97761.0910.87861.0718
TATA -0.0395-0.0255-0.1937-0.0454-0.0758-0.1417-0.0235-0.0199-0.08280.2959
M-score -2.44-2.84-4.09-2.80-3.06-3.57-2.78-3.08-1.93-0.92

Blyth Inc Quarterly Data

Sep12Dec12Mar13Jun13Sep13Dec13Mar14Jun14Sep14Dec14
DSRI 0.4770.41940.55990.79971.94781.88621.78131.79011.28791.2911
GMI 0.87540.90020.93630.96220.99021.01641.02381.02041.01581.0128
AQI 1.03720.90820.92330.91011.67321.85051.7251.38941.20461.0601
SGI 1.23281.35021.3241.03060.87090.73310.71520.7410.71740.6788
DEPI 1.15261.16371.10190.99850.89190.89910.87510.86780.92791.1024
SGAI 1.14781.05161.00531.01491.01811.06581.0571.04971.03261.012
LVGI 1.18861.08831.03651.02490.86950.87860.92770.79210.98031.0718
TATA 0.0311-0.0199-0.0444-0.0411-0.0593-0.0828-0.0535-0.03230.38330.2959
M-score -2.73-2.90-2.87-2.90-1.71-1.92-1.96-1.92-0.59-1.10
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