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GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with China Yuchai International Ltd $CYD.
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China Yuchai International Ltd (NYSE:CYD)
Beneish M-Score
0.00 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

China Yuchai International Ltd has a M-score of signals that the company is a manipulator.

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of China Yuchai International Ltd was 0.00. The lowest was -3.63. And the median was -2.28.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of China Yuchai International Ltd for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * +0.528 * +0.404 * +0.892 * +0.115 *
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * +4.679 * -0.327 *
=

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Dec16) TTM:Last Year (Dec15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $35 Mil.
Revenue was 539.879620798 + 432.638001859 + 555.914223274 + 519.81007889 = $2,048 Mil.
Gross Profit was 147.215237435 + 94.5620820965 + 107.815668063 + 92.9333968967 = $443 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,922 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,687 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $596 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $0 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $225 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,160 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $2 Mil.
Net Income was 32.664094338 + 11.5153968397 + 18.7754203849 + 13.7147646362 = $77 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -2.22434174398 + -0.0400287847441 + 0.0361197110423 + -0.89439771172 = $-3 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $60 Mil.
Revenue was 453.776651006 + 471.932910359 + 664.266099401 + 589.876254288 = $2,180 Mil.
Gross Profit was 107.323502504 + 92.1592122621 + 134.9141043 + 108.105985317 = $443 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $2,034 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,918 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $671 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $0 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $237 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,357 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $9 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(34.8518743316 / 2048.24192482) / (59.8224558466 / 2179.85191505)
=0.01701551 / 0.02744336
=

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(442.502804383 / 2179.85191505) / (442.526384491 / 2048.24192482)
=0.20299673 / 0.21605181
=

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1921.72360473 + 596.431255239) / 2687.43402989) / (1 - (2034.1278628 + 671.340807244) / 2917.55469755)
=0.06298914 / 0.07269308
=

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2048.24192482 / 2179.85191505
=

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(0 / (0 + 671.340807244)) / (0 / (0 + 596.431255239))
=0 / 0
=

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(224.817019874 / 2048.24192482) / (236.981902638 / 2179.85191505)
=0.10976097 / 0.10871468
=

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2.35122402382 + 1159.84190295) / 2687.43402989) / ((8.76230791893 + 1357.07013382) / 2917.55469755)
=0.43245457 / 0.46814287
=

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(76.6696761988 - -3.1226485294 - 0) / 2687.43402989
=0.0297

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

China Yuchai International Ltd has a M-score of signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

China Yuchai International Ltd Annual Data

Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16
DSRI 1.51970.75010.77991.37321.77380.06340.88160.92751.16960.6282
GMI 0.90331.03331.01930.78121.10971.04091.04291.02540.98540.9367
AQI 0.82270.69450.89570.9780.7991.01851.07560.87770.96740.8665
SGI 1.37821.09511.27121.2630.99810.8871.21331.01440.80180.9273
DEPI 0.73730.9551.06851.10061.04040.96640.90180.99590.90050.9404
SGAI 0.85941.22390.91661.02960.93011.02520.88890.99781.12131.0094
LVGI 0.99510.94321.07590.97221.05380.90950.99510.90330.97070.9238
TATA 0.0446-0.0475-0.2654-0.01810.1389-0.04570.01310.0091-0.0711-0.0935
M-score -1.58-2.98-3.72-2.10-1.14-3.61-2.27-2.50-2.88-3.40

China Yuchai International Ltd Quarterly Data

Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16
DSRI
GMI
AQI
SGI
DEPI
SGAI
LVGI
TATA
M-score
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