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Dollar Tree Stores Inc (NAS:DLTR)
Beneish M-Score
-3.02 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc has a M-score of -3.02 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

DLTR' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -3.55   Max: -2
Current: -3.02

-3.55
-2

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Dollar Tree Stores Inc was -2.00. The lowest was -3.55. And the median was -2.73.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Dollar Tree Stores Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1+0.528 * 1.0116+0.404 * 0.9559+0.892 * 1.0581+0.115 * 0.9981
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9921+4.679 * -0.088-0.327 * 1.5307
=-3.02

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Apr14) TTM:Last Year (Apr13) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $0 Mil.
Revenue was 2000.3 + 2234.9 + 1884.7 + 1854.9 = $7,975 Mil.
Gross Profit was 696.6 + 825.2 + 659.9 + 648.7 = $2,830 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,537 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,958 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,116 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $196 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,845 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $725 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $757 Mil.
Net Income was 138.3 + 213.1 + 125.4 + 124.7 = $602 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + -1.1 + 0.3 + 0.2 = $-1 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 198.2 + 426.7 + 66.4 + 171 = $862 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $0 Mil.
Revenue was 1865.8 + 2245.8 + 1720.5 + 1704.6 = $7,537 Mil.
Gross Profit was 656 + 850.8 + 599.6 + 599.6 = $2,706 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,490 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,812 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,018 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $179 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,757 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $663 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $257 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0 / 7974.8) / (0 / 7536.7)
=0 / 0
=1

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(825.2 / 7536.7) / (696.6 / 7974.8)
=0.35904308 / 0.35491799
=1.0116

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1537 + 1115.5) / 2958) / (1 - (1489.8 + 1018.2) / 2811.8)
=0.10327924 / 0.10804467
=0.9559

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=7974.8 / 7536.7
=1.0581

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(178.6 / (178.6 + 1018.2)) / (196.1 / (196.1 + 1115.5))
=0.14923128 / 0.14951205
=0.9981

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1844.7 / 7974.8) / (1757.3 / 7536.7)
=0.23131615 / 0.23316571
=0.9921

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((757 + 724.5) / 2958) / ((257 + 663) / 2811.8)
=0.50084517 / 0.32719255
=1.5307

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(601.5 - -0.6 - 862.3) / 2958
=-0.088

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc has a M-score of -3.02 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc Annual Data

Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14
DSRI 1111111111
GMI 1.01641.03031.01030.99281.00470.96571.00020.98940.99991.0082
AQI 0.7851.25451.10481.34430.86750.95111.09130.98150.9150.9353
SGI 1.11651.08571.16961.06881.09481.12621.12451.12721.11521.0603
DEPI 0.89480.92760.94071.03080.95141.02481.02061.071.07371.0405
SGAI 1.01990.99991.00631.01110.99060.97310.96450.97150.97330.9904
LVGI 1.07150.9991.11341.08530.88350.9781.03731.08520.95021.5355
TATA -0.0543-0.1019-0.1136-0.087-0.082-0.1138-0.0533-0.0852-0.0436-0.0707
M-score -2.75-2.77-2.86-2.72-2.80-2.92-2.59-2.79-2.59-2.95

Dollar Tree Stores Inc Quarterly Data

Jan12Apr12Jul12Oct12Jan13Apr13Jul13Oct13Jan14Apr14
DSRI 1111111111
GMI 0.98941.00021.00060.99990.99990.99830.99970.9971.00821.0116
AQI 0.98150.97911.02890.9740.9150.8890.88920.89930.93530.9559
SGI 1.12721.12061.1171.10671.11521.1071.10281.10671.06031.0581
DEPI 1.071.05811.04711.0611.07371.09891.10931.07461.04050.9981
SGAI 0.97150.97790.97510.97620.97330.97280.97860.98540.99040.9921
LVGI 1.08521.05041.10471.04650.95020.98280.96091.70761.53551.5307
TATA -0.0852-0.0661-0.0722-0.0624-0.0436-0.0341-0.04-0.0412-0.0706-0.088
M-score -2.79-2.70-2.73-2.69-2.59-2.57-2.59-2.84-2.95-3.02
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