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Dollar Tree Stores Inc (NAS:DLTR)
Beneish M-Score
-2.81 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc has a M-score of -2.81 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

DLTR' s 10-Year Beneish M-Score Range
Min: -2.95   Max: -2.12
Current: -2.81

-2.95
-2.12

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Dollar Tree Stores Inc was -2.12. The lowest was -2.95. And the median was -2.71.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Dollar Tree Stores Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1+0.528 * 1.0088+0.404 * 0.9393+0.892 * 1.0972+0.115 * 1.0202
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9988+4.679 * -0.0935-0.327 * 0.8715
=-2.81

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

This Year (Jan15) TTM:Last Year (Jan14) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $0 Mil.
Revenue was 2475.6 + 2095.2 + 2031.1 + 2000.3 = $8,602 Mil.
Gross Profit was 918.1 + 725.3 + 694.1 + 696.6 = $3,034 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,995 Mil.
Total Assets was $3,567 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,211 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $206 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,994 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $862 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $757 Mil.
Net Income was 206.5 + 133 + 121.5 + 138.3 = $599 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 7.1 + -1.1 + 0 + 0 = $6 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 538.3 + 23.2 + 167.1 + 198.2 = $927 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $0 Mil.
Revenue was 2234.9 + 1884.7 + 1854.9 + 1865.8 = $7,840 Mil.
Gross Profit was 825.2 + 659.9 + 648.7 + 656 = $2,790 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,379 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,772 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,094 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $191 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,819 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $686 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $757 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0 / 8602.2) / (0 / 7840.3)
=0 / 0
=1

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(725.3 / 7840.3) / (918.1 / 8602.2)
=0.35582822 / 0.3527121
=1.0088

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1994.6 + 1210.5) / 3567) / (1 - (1378.5 + 1094) / 2771.9)
=0.10145781 / 0.10801255
=0.9393

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=8602.2 / 7840.3
=1.0972

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(190.5 / (190.5 + 1094)) / (205.9 / (205.9 + 1210.5))
=0.14830673 / 0.14536854
=1.0202

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1993.9 / 8602.2) / (1819.4 / 7840.3)
=0.23178954 / 0.23205745
=0.9988

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((757 + 861.6) / 3567) / ((757 + 686.3) / 2771.9)
=0.45377068 / 0.52068978
=0.8715

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(599.3 - 6 - 926.8) / 3567
=-0.0935

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc has a M-score of -2.81 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their own currency.

Dollar Tree Stores Inc Annual Data

Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14Jan15
DSRI 1111111111
GMI 1.03031.01030.99281.00470.96571.00020.98940.99991.00821.0089
AQI 1.25441.09971.35070.86750.95111.09130.98150.9150.93530.9393
SGI 1.08571.16961.06881.09481.12621.12451.12721.11521.06031.0972
DEPI 0.92760.94071.03080.95141.02481.02061.071.07371.04051.0202
SGAI 0.99991.00631.01110.99060.97310.96450.97150.97330.99040.9987
LVGI 0.99791.12491.07530.88350.9781.03731.08520.95021.53550.8715
TATA -0.1019-0.1131-0.087-0.0853-0.1138-0.0533-0.0852-0.0436-0.0714-0.0935
M-score -2.77-2.86-2.71-2.81-2.92-2.59-2.79-2.59-2.95-2.81

Dollar Tree Stores Inc Quarterly Data

Oct12Jan13Apr13Jul13Oct13Jan14Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15
DSRI 1111111111
GMI 0.99990.99990.99830.99970.9971.00821.01161.01591.01941.0088
AQI 0.9740.9150.8890.88920.89930.93530.95590.98861.10460.9393
SGI 1.10671.11521.1071.10281.10671.06031.05811.06041.0651.0972
DEPI 1.0611.07371.09891.10931.07461.04050.99810.98991.00441.0202
SGAI 0.97620.97330.97280.97860.98540.99040.99210.99410.99370.9988
LVGI 1.04650.95020.98280.96091.70761.53551.53071.53240.78350.8715
TATA -0.0164-0.0444-0.0349-0.0407-0.0838-0.0714-0.0887-0.0831-0.0624-0.0935
M-score -2.48-2.59-2.57-2.59-3.04-2.95-3.03-2.99-2.59-2.81
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