Forestar Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data
The historical data trend for Forestar Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
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Forestar Group Annual Data
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Trend |
Dec13 |
Dec14 |
Dec15 |
Dec16 |
Dec17 |
Sep19 |
Sep20 |
Sep21 |
Sep22 |
Sep23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
Array
(
[0] => -
[1] => -
[2] => -
[3] => -
[4] => -
[5] => -
[6] => -0.44
[7] => -1.93
[8] => 5.08
[9] => -1.69
)
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- |
-0.44 |
-1.93 |
5.08 |
-1.69 |
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Forestar Group Quarterly Data
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Mar19 |
Jun19 |
Sep19 |
Dec19 |
Mar20 |
Jun20 |
Sep20 |
Dec20 |
Mar21 |
Jun21 |
Sep21 |
Dec21 |
Mar22 |
Jun22 |
Sep22 |
Dec22 |
Mar23 |
Jun23 |
Sep23 |
Dec23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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1.69 |
30.91 |
-2.05 |
-1.69 |
-1.76 |
Competitive Comparison
For the Real Estate - Development subindustry, Forestar Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Forestar Group Beneish M-Score Distribution
For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, Forestar Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Forestar Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.
Forestar Group Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Forestar Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.7783 | + | 0.528 * 1.0395 | + | 0.404 * 0.8974 | + | 0.892 * 1.149 | + | 0.115 * 0.9091 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 0.9418 | + | 4.679 * -0.028771 | - | 0.327 * 0.9126 |
| = | -1.76 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $28 Mil.
Revenue was 305.9 + 549.8 + 368.9 + 301.5 = $1,526 Mil.
Gross Profit was 72.9 + 115.7 + 85 + 55.9 = $330 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $508 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,534 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $14 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $3 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $103 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $357 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $714 Mil.
Net Income was 38.2 + 72.4 + 46.8 + 26.9 = $184 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -156.7 + 227.9 + 114.9 + 71.1 = $257 Mil.
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Total Receivables was $14 Mil.
Revenue was 216.7 + 381.4 + 308.5 + 421.6 = $1,328 Mil.
Gross Profit was 47.5 + 89.2 + 73.9 + 87.5 = $298 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $257 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,341 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $13 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $3 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $95 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $370 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $714 Mil.
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1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (28.4 / 1526.1) | / | (13.9 / 1328.2) |
| = | 0.01861 | / | 0.010465 |
| | = | 1.7783 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (298.1 / 1328.2) | / | (329.5 / 1526.1) |
| = | 0.224439 | / | 0.21591 |
| | = | 1.0395 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (508 + 13.7) / 2533.8) | / | (1 - (256.6 + 12.9) / 2341.1) |
| = | 0.794104 | / | 0.884883 |
| | = | 0.8974 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 1526.1 | / | 1328.2 |
| | = | 1.149 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (2.6 / (2.6 + 12.9)) | / | (3.1 / (3.1 + 13.7)) |
| = | 0.167742 | / | 0.184524 |
| | = | 0.9091 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (102.8 / 1526.1) | / | (95 / 1328.2) |
| = | 0.067361 | / | 0.071525 |
| | = | 0.9418 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((713.7 + 357.4) / 2533.8) | / | ((714.3 + 370.1) / 2341.1) |
| = | 0.422725 | / | 0.463201 |
| | = | 0.9126 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (184.3 - 0 | - | 257.2) | / | 2533.8 |
| | = | -0.028771 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Forestar Group has a M-score of -1.76 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
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