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GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Signs with Statoil ASA $FRA:DNQA.
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Statoil ASA (FRA:DNQA)
Beneish M-Score
-2.47 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Statoil ASA has a M-score of -2.89 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

FRA:DNQA' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.48   Max: -2.24
Current: -2.47

-3.48
-2.24

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Statoil ASA was -2.24. The lowest was -3.48. And the median was -2.74.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Statoil ASA for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.1407+0.528 * 1.2055+0.404 * 1.1282+0.892 * 0.7093+0.115 * 1.4284
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.2335+4.679 * -0.0976-0.327 * 0.9866
=-2.89

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Sep16) TTM:Last Year (Sep15) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was €5,334 Mil.
Revenue was 10786.7771541 + 9696.51121396 + 9083.15373563 + 12019.645644 = €41,586 Mil.
Gross Profit was 3558.76325403 + 3225.34709861 + 3320.76149425 + 4473.51510144 = €14,578 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €23,659 Mil.
Total Assets was €101,209 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €59,172 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €10,152 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €725 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €15,399 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was €25,486 Mil.
Net Income was -384.923817161 + -273.228907084 + 545.079022989 + -1033.69136142 = €-1,147 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 80.1924619086 + 79.2096831613 + 747.126436782 + -473.698705591 = €433 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 3259.37806291 + 1018.15592738 + 1980.06465517 + 2036.17001744 = €8,294 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was €6,592 Mil.
Revenue was 12130.4464047 + 15523.4785708 + 14333.3641319 + 16646.4030819 = €58,634 Mil.
Gross Profit was 4117.43740533 + 6577.56393121 + 5542.82546429 + 8541.37226277 = €24,779 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €27,968 Mil.
Total Assets was €103,480 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €58,858 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €15,568 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €829 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €14,594 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was €27,778 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(5333.68974428 / 41586.0877476) / (6592.35231222 / 58633.6921894)
=0.12825659 / 0.11243284
=1.1407

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(24779.1990636 / 58633.6921894) / (14578.3869483 / 41586.0877476)
=0.42261025 / 0.35055923
=1.2055

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (23659.4493451 + 59172.2355876) / 101209.12412) / (1 - (27967.5541299 + 58858.0335026) / 103479.950993)
=0.18157888 / 0.1609429
=1.1282

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=41586.0877476 / 58633.6921894
=0.7093

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(15567.6009633 / (15567.6009633 + 58858.0335026)) / (10151.5105202 / (10151.5105202 + 59172.2355876))
=0.20916988 / 0.14643627
=1.4284

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(725.236914427 / 41586.0877476) / (828.972805052 / 58633.6921894)
=0.01743941 / 0.01413816
=1.2335

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((25486.0554219 + 15398.7347412) / 101209.12412) / ((27778.2999198 + 14593.5961864) / 103479.950993)
=0.40396348 / 0.40946962
=0.9866

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-1146.76506268 - 432.829876261 - 8293.7686629) / 101209.12412
=-0.0976

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Statoil ASA has a M-score of -2.89 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Statoil ASA Annual Data

Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16
DSRI 1.31410.8980.98551.1351.08270.59641.32840.90750.80762.2797
GMI 1.04310.96390.89351.08430.98471.05361.24071.00111.04041.1468
AQI 1.05321.36320.86820.83851.37470.97620.86990.95581.03721.0496
SGI 1.04421.05280.79131.23691.2521.1490.77690.89190.8060.7942
DEPI 1.4131.07450.84911.07761.12550.92470.93630.84630.72091.305
SGAI 1.33590.11731.32710.94450.94050.70670.88290.95361.31721.0757
LVGI 1.04491.02511.00231.03240.96440.56671.80071.03751.06080.3891
TATA -0.1239-0.0461-0.0864-0.0717-0.0565-0.0773-0.0498-0.1072-0.1644-0.1177
M-score -2.71-2.46-3.27-2.49-2.26-2.88-2.78-3.20-3.67-1.72

Statoil ASA Quarterly Data

Sep14Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16
DSRI 1.26611.25841.16481.17650.84850.91320.93730.92921.14071.5731
GMI 1.21530.96291.06521.05321.03471.18051.09681.20151.20551.1475
AQI 0.83360.95580.98990.9610.9571.03721.08411.17021.12821.0496
SGI 0.89160.9270.84310.82650.78510.7380.73420.66720.70930.7714
DEPI 1.00870.82530.62470.59610.6420.76411.38071.46481.42841.3422
SGAI 1.11440.94921.10781.1571.24951.34771.31631.43021.23351.0744
LVGI 1.89431.03751.12541.10311.09691.06070.98561.01260.98660.3891
TATA -0.0729-0.1172-0.1445-0.1524-0.1716-0.1635-0.1061-0.1143-0.0976-0.1132
M-score -2.94-2.92-3.22-3.28-3.73-3.56-3.19-3.23-2.89-2.36
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