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The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.
Guess? Inc has a M-score of -2.97 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Guess? Inc was -1.08. The lowest was -4.39. And the median was -2.83.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Guess? Inc for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
|M||=||-4.84||+||0.92 * DSRI||+||0.528 * GMI||+||0.404 * AQI||+||0.892 * SGI||+||0.115 * DEPI|
|=||-4.84||+||0.92 * 0.8954||+||0.528 * 1.0433||+||0.404 * 1.0132||+||0.892 * 0.9677||+||0.115 * 0.9824|
|-||0.172 * SGAI||+||4.679 * TATA||-||0.327 * LVGI|
|-||0.172 * 0.9739||+||4.679 * -0.0923||-||0.327 * 0.8824|
|This Year (Apr14) TTM:||Last Year (Apr13) TTM:|
|Accounts Receivable was $218 Mil.|
Revenue was 522.541 + 768.363 + 613.497 + 639.012 = $2,543 Mil.
Gross Profit was 176.231 + 301.949 + 228.227 + 248.532 = $955 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,158 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,714 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $323 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $87 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $736 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $320 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $7 Mil.
Net Income was -2.101 + 69.632 + 34.02 + 39.866 = $141 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -1.119 + 1.338 + 3.624 + -0.139 = $4 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -0.233 + 190.653 + 35.122 + 70.43 = $296 Mil.
|Accounts Receivable was $251 Mil.
Revenue was 548.914 + 815.118 + 628.828 + 635.393 = $2,628 Mil.
Gross Profit was 197.426 + 332.878 + 247.609 + 251.56 = $1,029 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,058 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,621 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $346 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $91 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $780 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $343 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $8 Mil.
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
|DSRI||=||(Receivables_t / Revenue_t)||/||(Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)|
|=||(217.541 / 2543.413)||/||(251.071 / 2628.253)|
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
|=||(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)||/||(GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)|
|=||(301.949 / 2628.253)||/||(176.231 / 2543.413)|
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
|AQI||=||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||(1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||(1 - (1157.844 + 322.936) / 1713.751)||/||(1 - (1057.642 + 346.268) / 1621.468)|
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
|DEPI||=||(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))||/||(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))|
|=||(91.485 / (91.485 + 346.268))||/||(87.257 / (87.257 + 322.936))|
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
|SGAI||=||(SGA_t / Sales_t)||/||(SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)|
|=||(735.549 / 2543.413)||/||(780.427 / 2628.253)|
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage
|LVGI||=||((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t)||/||((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)|
|=||((6.912 + 319.85) / 1713.751)||/||((7.559 + 342.796) / 1621.468)|
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
|=||(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t||-||CashFlowsfromOperations_t)||/||TotalAssets_t|
|=||(141.417 - 3.704||-||295.972)||/||1713.751|
An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Guess? Inc has a M-score of -2.97 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.
Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations
Guess? Inc Annual Data
Guess? Inc Quarterly Data